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For years now, the Nigerian security architecture has been overwhelmed by the raging insecurity in the country. With terrorism, banditry and kidnapping flourishing unabated, the government appears to have exhausted every plan to quell the unrest – now it is thinking of adopting the most common solution to challenges in Nigeria.

On Thursday, the Attorney-General of the Federation, Abubakar Malami, said President Muhammadu Buhari is weighing the possibility of imposing a nationwide ban on the sale and use of okada (motorcycles) by Nigerians.

Per Peoples Gazette, Malami said the administration is considering the wholesale ban due to insecurity that has refused to be contained even though the security agents are giving it their best.

“The government would look into that possibility with particular regard to restriction on use and distribution of motorcycles which is the most conventional logistical means being deployed by terrorists,” Mr Malami said at the State House shortly after a meeting of the National Security Council.

Malami acknowledged that the move will exacerbate Nigeria’s poor economic situation, but said the decision wasn’t easily taken by the administration.

He said federal authorities have been able to find a connection between motorcycles, mining operations and insecurity across the country. But he didn’t explain why the decision will affect nationwide operation of okada when the affected places are mainly the northeast and the northwest.

As the PG noted, Boko Haram insurgents have operated predominantly in the country’s northeastern flank since 2009, while bandits terrorize northwest communities. Among the measures taken by the affected states in the regions is okada ban and cutting off telephone networks. The measures have however, failed to yield favorable results as both banditry and terrorism have continued to flourish in those regions.

In Southern Nigeria, particularly the southwest and southeast, separatist agitation reigns, though it bears lesser weight of insecurity compared to the north.

Malami said the decision was informed by an intelligence report that the administration could not disregard even though it will bring about harsh economic realities. He did not say when the ban will be announced.

The implication

Apart from the mobility crisis that will result from the decision to ban okada, the economic implication will likely outweigh the gain. Millions of Nigerians rely on okada for last mile mobility while hundreds earn a living selling motorcycles and its spare parts.

Revenue in the Motorcycles market is projected to reach $0.92bn in 2022, showing an annual growth rate (CAGR 2022-2026) of 8.68%, resulting in a projected market volume of US$1.29bn by 2026, according to market data firm Statista.

The market’s largest segment is On-road Motorcycles with a projected market volume of $0.55bn in 2022. Motorcycles market unit sales are expected to reach 680.65K motorcycles in 2026, the firm said.

This means that a ban on commercial motorcycles will cut over $100 billion off Nigeria’s economy in the near term, putting thousands of people out of business particularly in states like Anambra and Lagos where the business is predominant.

Security experts have said that the poor economic situation of the country is contributing largely to its insecurity, warning that lack of job has the tendency to push people into violent crimes.