On July 7, I wrote a piece titled “United Kingdom Cooks for Boris Johnson; He Ran Away” explaining how Mr. Johnson could not handle the pressure in the UK. Hilary Unachukwu dropped a note: “ I wonder how this affects the Ukraine war.” I responded to him as follows: “Big unknown indeed. Kiev may be worried. But they could pick Liz Truss who may even send British soldiers to Ukraine….She is the toughest woman in UK. If they make her PM, Margaret Thatcher’s era may look weak.” (Follow the conversation here ).
When Boris resigned, I scanned the whole United Kingdom and the only leader I felt was possibly going to become the new Prime Minister was Ms Truss. I had dropped her as the new potential new Prime Minister. British politics is highly predictable as they elect for the “moment”. What that means is that they look for the leader who can solve the immediate challenges they face!
Boris Johnson became the PM because they felt he was going to get Brexit done. Right now, one of the main challenges facing the UK is how to resolve the Russian conflict with Ukraine. Sure, it is not a direct confrontation with the UK but if you go back to the imperial age when Britain used to level kingdoms, the country feels lost that it cannot do much to stop Russia. But in that powerlessness, Ms Truss, the foreign secretary, has come out bold and ferocious.
Today, the final two contenders for the PM post are Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss. The 160,000 party members will now vote in the next coming weeks to elect the next prime minister. Her premiership will bring urgency in the conflict in Ukraine. But yet, the UK does not have the might to really do much despite big talks. The Great Britain which used to annihilate kingdoms and colonized them is a shadow of itself but Ms Truss will ensure that the West does not forget Ukraine really fast, even in a hot summer or cold winter.
Yet, I must acknowledge that Rishi is a strong candidate. With inflation rising and economic challenges heating up, those 160,000 party members could decide to forget geopolitics for family moments and grocery budgets. Except a close race.
Johnson resigned as party leader earlier this month after a series of scandals led to dozens of ministerial resignations. Ten Conservatives stood in the contest to replace him, and over five rounds of voting, members of parliament whittled those down to two.
Sunak won 137 votes and Truss got 113 votes in the final round, while Penny Mordaunt with 105 votes lost out.
Now about 160,000 rank-and-file members of the party will have their say, and in September the winner — and next prime minister — will be announced.
Comment 1: The UK requires highly sophisticated PM with deep insight in geopolitical games to help shape the world positively in these turbulent times. While dealing with Russia-Russia conflict is an immediate challenge, the shifting geopolitical balance towards east requires accurately measured and thought leadership. In my view, Rishi should be a better pick than Truss
My Response 1: Fair – we will see. Russia has shown that economic resilience is the battle of the 21st century. So, the UK may even be looking for who can secure that economic future as India and China rise. If that is the case, Rishi wins.
Comment 2: I will play the devil’s advocate here. I prefer her to Rishi because the once powerful vibrant voice is increasingly loosening her vibrance on the international scene. The last time, to my knowledge, that voice vibrated globally was Blair’s era. I hope, however, she will not step on the same banana peel that Theresa and Boris fell on —out of favor and flavors!
My Response 2: Empires rise and fall due to the economy. Today, many in Washington DC respect the governor of Russia’s central bank for two amazing playbooks she engineered hours after the first sanction came. She saved that economy. The power of Britain comes from its economy. Recently, it is withdrawing. Unfortunately, geopolitics does not allow vacuum: when you cut that child aid to Mali, China replaces it and next time, you become a stranger.
It is not about big talk – it’s about “can you write the cheques”. The neutral state of Africa on Russia-Ukraine war is because the West has no leverage on the continent. If China is EU, they would have sided with China…you need the next loan to finance corruption and waste.
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