It is very painful but I project that Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, will likely fail by Thursday, March 17 2022, using the average miles per day Russia is capturing, unless something stops them. In senior secondary school, I studied most subjects available in Secondary Technical School Ovim (Abia) and because of the limitation from  WAEC which stipulated a maximum of 9 subjects, I took the extra subjects in GCE while in SS1. 

[Comment on my prediction, March 22 2022: In Kiev, physically I was wrong but policy-wise, Kiev actually “fell”. I have stopped writing about this war. Why? The war “ended” on the 15th when Ukrainian leader agreed that Ukraine would not join NATO. (A shift from we have the right to choose the direction of our future).

 That acknowledgment would have  closed everything except that Russia moved the goalpost. Russia now wants to make Crimea annexation permanent and annex the Donbass region – and link both via Mariupol (the “hell” right now) ,(Read Putin’s phone call with Turkey  president). 

Today, President Z was even clearer: “It’s a compromise for everyone: for the West, which doesn’t know what to do with us with regard to NATO, for Ukraine, which wants security guarantees, and for Russia, which doesn’t want further NATO expansion… We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognized,” Zelenskyy said.

 Across all points which triggered the war and which Russia requested, Ukraine has agreed to nearly all. But the problem is that Russia has added more. So, Ukraine policy-wise fell before 17th even though militarily that is not the case. Putin is being wicked now for destroying when he has gotten nearly all!]

I made distinctions in them but remained in school to do the other ones in SSCE. I hold my secondary school’s all-time academic record in history till today (I hope someone beats it soon!).

In my history subject, I read about Peter the Great who ruled Russia from 1682 and how he transformed that area. He founded St. Petersburg, Russia’s former capital. He had won the Great Northern War and found access to the Baltic Sea.

Then Stalin, a Soviet era dictator, but who was extremely important in defeating Nazi Germany. The Soviet Union defeated the German Army  near the Volga river, finishing Hitler’s armies in the Battle of Stalingrad. That was one of the most important battles in the Second World War.

If you studied history and paid attention to Russian wars, you will notice one thing: water is their fighting god. They always like to control the sea. In the current Ukraine war, the first duty was to control the seaports and once they had managed them, they opened the final phase – control the capital. With Crimea under the control of Russia, their asymmetric superiority in the sea was absolute; Ukraine had no chance!

Recall that Napoleon invaded Russia by crossing the Neman River through Poland; water is the hole and the weak point. Russia in the last 2 weeks wanted to be in charge of the river flanks; that was completed 3 days ago. With that done, those kilometers-long tank convoys were dispersed. That is consistent with strategies postulated in Sun Tzu’s The Art of War.

The next deal now is to encircle the capital of Ukraine and complete the project. Going against Russia will require contesting the seas and waters, not just the capital. Why? If you have no access to the sea, you cannot bring in many items into the country.

Satellites have captured imagery of a convoy of Russian forces that had been slowly advancing towards the Ukraine capital having dispersed and redeployed into nearby locations.

The 64-kilometre-long convoy was first noticed by satellite imagery at the end of February, days after Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

Recent satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed the long line of vehicles, tanks and artillery has broken up and been redeployed, with armoured units seen in towns near the Antonov Airport north of Kyiv.

Peace to the world.

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment 1: Wow, insightful and educative. They kept the entire world in the dark on why their convoy of tanks was parked there for weeks. The West was throwing all sorts of theories about such as its a logistics problem, it is this and that, the temperature is going to -20 degrees so it’s will freeze them, they are stuck, etc.

Next, I heard was that the convoys have dispersed and then was they are encircling keiv. It’s a matter of days now before they take Kyiv.

One more thing. You see the West was giving all sorts of excuses not to put boot on the ground in Ukraine, but I believed that was just an excuse. If Russia was a country that is not more advanced militarily than the West, the west would have entered the war.

There must be something they know about Russia militarily that the West are hapless with and allowing Russia has her way.

Also, consider what happened in Syria; the moment Russia joined the fight, the West lost. I have reasons to believe that the West knows that Russia has serious military might that’s maybe more advanced than theirs. That’s why they give Russian her way and fight them via proxy as they are doing in Ukraine now.

Comment 2: Can you put your money on Ukraine falling on Thursday, March 17, 2022?

My Response: I can change my opinion depending on what I see on reporting. But in the last 4 days, looking at average miles gained by day, they are close. But if US joins and stops that advancement, I will update. I am simply using data to extrapolate, nothing more. This is not physics.

Comment: Ndubuisi Ekekwe but Biden said he won’t interfere, candidly saying to him to stay off..

My Response: That is the reason I am projecting Thursday. But if he changes his mind, that changes all. This is not physics. I have based my model based on the current data. They are picking 2-5 miles per day and they are about 10 miles off. I expect them to spend more days in the last 5 miles. We did not do statistics in school for nothing!

Comment: And Ukraine won’t fall on Thursday. If you were so sure of your analysis and extrapolation, the right thing to do would have been to put your money on it and we wait to see Ukraine fall on Thursday.

My Response: You can go to betting site or Las Vegas. My feed is a school. You may not like my post but I see here as a classroom. If you have a better argument, put it across. Otherwise, go to betting site. I like people to challenge my assumption with better points. Go to Vegas and bet. But if you like to be here which I treasure, come here and put counter arguments. We do not bet here.

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First, Nigeria must address the case of many Nigerians who want to volunteer to fight in Ukraine. It is a great irony that a nation which has many “wars”, and is looking for fighters, magically has citizens who are available to go and fight in another country! Yet, I doubt if they are truly going to fight.

 Possibly, they will look for an escape out of Nigeria. My major issue is making sure we do not feed a future radicalization system where these “volunteers” return, post Ukraine war,  and cause problems in the nation.

Secondly, a new chapter is opening. More than 40 Republican senators have written an open letter, asking Biden to immediately facilitate the transfer of aircraft and air defence systems to Ukraine: “We implore you to direct your Department of Defense to facilitate the transfer of aircraft, air defence systems, and other capabilities by and through our Nato partners immediately.”

Republican U.S. senators are imploring the Biden administration to reverse course and allow the transfer of Poland’s MiG fighter jets to the Ukrainians to fight the Russian invasion, a sign the Defense Department’s rejection of the offer may be running into steep resistance on Capitol Hill.

Forty GOP senators signed onto a letter from Sens. Joni Ernst of Iowa and Mitt Romney of Utah urging President Joe Biden to answer the plea from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who told lawmakers over the weekend that if the U.S. could not help with a no-fly zone over his skies, it could at least send more planes for his people to defend against the attack from Russia.

“Enough talk. People are dying,” Romney said at a press conference on Capitol Hill. “Send them the planes they need.”

If Biden agrees, everything becomes unpredictable. And I will expect the use of chemical weapons by next month once NATO delivers these aircrafts. Russia knows it has limited options since NATO can supply as much weapons to Ukraine as possible, and the only exit will be to bring a new basis in this war.

People, this is getting out of control. If this madness does not end by March, a really bad thing can happen.

So far, Biden continues to maintain that he has no interest to follow the suggestions of Republicans.

“I want to be clear: We will defend every inch of Nato territory with the full might of a united and galvanized Nato,” the president wrote on Twitter. “But we will not fight a war against Russia in Ukraine. A direct confrontation between Nato and Russia is World War III.”

Biden has repeatedly said that sending US troops for direct engagement with Russia was off the table.

In recent days, his administration has pursued an increasingly aggressive sanctions campaign against Vladimir Putin and his country.

On Friday, Biden announced a ban on imports of Russian alcohol, seafood and diamonds and widened the list of oligarchs facing sanctions.

Two years back, Nigerians were graciously informed by Nigeria’s Federal Government (FG) that the construction of Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) Gas Pipeline would commence as soon as possible, reportedly in line with the developmental stride of the FG.

Consequently, precisely on 30th June 2020, President Muhammadu Buhari virtually conducted the flag-off ceremony of the proposed AKK Gas Pipeline project, which apparently raised the expectations of the citizenry.

It’s worth noting that the overall cost of the historic landmark project was estimated at 2.6 billion dollars. It would equally interest us to take into cognizance that the gesture came at the time the country, among many others across the globe, was battling with the Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic.

While speaking at the occasion, President Buhari disclosed that the project, whose impending construction was based on budgetary allocation and specifications, was very dear to the people of Nigeria, hence must succeed.

He, therefore, mandated the Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC) and its partners to remain resolute, noting the AKK project was part of the delivery of the current administration’s Next Level Agenda for sustainable development, enhancement of economic prosperity and increase of the country’s infrastructure assets.

The president stated thus “We promised the nation that we will expand the critical gas infrastructure in the country to promote the use of gas in the domestic market. These include the Escravos to Lagos Pipeline System, Obiafu to Obrikor Pipeline and the AKK.”

Nigeria’s number one citizen equally informed that the project, which was scheduled to be completed in two years’ time, was fundamental to the government’s desire to industrialize the country and energize the entrepreneurial spirit that remained present among our teeming population.

He further highlighted that the project, when duly completed, would provide gas for generation of power and for gas-based industries, which would facilitate the emergence and development of new industries.

Aside its significant job creation potential – both direct and indirect – as well as fostering the development and utilization of local skills, manpower, technology transfer cum promotion of domestic manufacturing, Mr. President opined that it would ensure the revival of moribund industries along transit towns in Kogi, Niger, Kaduna, and Kano States coupled with Abuja, the precise areas where the pipeline will cut across.

Still at the virtual ceremony, the president acknowledged that the COVID-19 pandemic had further underscored his administration’s drive for export substitution initiatives and projects that promote local manufacturing, hence the emergence of the 614km AKK gas pipeline.

It’s noteworthy that the key financiers of the epoch-making project were reportedly the Bank of China and SINOSURE, China’s Export and Credit Insurance Corporation. Similarly, the contractors were Brentex Plc., China’s Petroleum Pipeline Bureau and Oilserve Plc., China’s First Highway Engineering Company.

In his speech, the Group Managing Director (GMD) of the NNPC, Mr. Mele Kyari explained that the project involved the establishment of a connecting gas pipeline network that would link the Northern region to the Niger Delta, Eastern and Western regions of the country.

The project, which had been awarded at a total contract sum of US$2.592bn, was awarded to Oilserv Plc for the first segment covering 303km whilst the second segment covering 311km was awarded to Brentex Petroleum Services.

The second segment, according to a reliable report, indicated that it would be financed under a debt-equity financing model with loan from the Bank of China and SINOSURE meant to be repaid via the pipeline transmission tariff and supported by a sovereign guarantee.

As at then, I made it very clear that it was undoubtedly a capital-intensive project to assert the least. Hence, must not be handled with a kid glove towards ensuring its timely and apt construction cum completion.

This is one of the prime reasons borrowing is necessary, like I earlier stated when the contract was awarded. Every individual, entity or corporate body is only required to borrow when capital projects are involved.

It suffices to assert that it’s highly inconsequential and preposterous to seek for loan to service recurrent expenditure or what have you. However, it’s injurious if the project being borrowed for isn’t realized in the long run.

It’s appalling that two years down the line, no positive development has thus far been heard about the AKK gas pipeline, which was billed to come into completion by the second quarter of this year.

For such a remarkable project to yield the expected fruit, various parameters needed to be considered by the relevant authorities. The implementation of the proposed AKK project, which was meant to be directly under the watch of the NNPC Management, deserves nothing but the very best if it’s really targeted to positively turnaround Nigeria’s economy – particularly in the oil and gas sector. This is the reason some factors mustn’t be overlooked as it progresses. I unequivocally disclose this in the period under review.

The direct beneficiaries of the project – including Niger, Kaduna, Kano and Kogi States as well as the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) – are therefore expected to be on the lookout with a view to ensure that the needful is deployed as long as the construction works last.

In view of the above, the governments of the aforementioned states and the authority in charge of the FCT were also required to guarantee adequate monitoring of the project by invariably bringing themselves closer to the construction sites.

Hence, the concerned governors and the FCT Minister shouldn’t be reminded of their respective Corporate Social Responsibilities (CSR) as regards the progress of the impending project, especially in the area of security and allied matters.

In the same vein, the National Assembly (NASS) – in their oversight function as enshrined in the Nigerian Constitution – needs to equally extend their tentacles toward the overall activities arising thereof. In this regard, an ad-hoc monitoring committee ought to be set up by the lawmakers.

On the other hand, it’s imperative to remind the Buhari-led government the compelling need to revisit the Ajaokuta Steel project. It could be recalled that the bill for the onward completion of the abandoned capital-intensive project was graciously passed by the eight assembly but was unfortunately declined assent by the Presidency, reason best known to it.

So, as we ostensibly undergo the post COVID-19 era, it’s pertinent for the President to make a u-turn in a bid to reexamine the said bill to make amends where need be and resubmit the same to the ninth assembly. This time, it can be tendered as an Executive Bill. This mustn’t be jettisoned if we are truly sincere about touch-lighting the country’s epileptic economy.

I cannot possibly conclude this analysis without mentioning the country’s downstream sector in the petroleum industry. It’s also high time the Federal Government (FG) became strongly determined to revamp our moribund refineries.

It’s disheartening that after years of promising to fix the said anomaly, Nigerians are yet to embrace a new era in that regard. Similarly, we need to step up actions to ensure that the country could boast of various modular refineries as earlier announced. We can’t continue to dwell in the past at such a time like this.

All in all, as we are obviously prepared to squarely face the challenges  being occasioned by the emergence of the dreaded COVID-19 pandemic, governments at all levels must take into cognizance that tech-driven measures and policies are the only way out.

Aliko Dangote has dropped a clear message to Nigerians and Africans, reminding them of an impending food crisis within the next two to three months as a result of the Russia-Ukraine war: “There will be a shortage of wheat, maize and a lot of products because as we speak, Russia and Ukraine do almost 30 percent of the world’s urea and 26 per cent of the world’s potash; and even phosphate also, they are one of the largest (producers) in the world.

“There would be a scarcity of food generally, we would not be able to access fertilizers going forward, we would not see the effects now, but in the next two, three months. Even the US will not be able to do the same number of tonnage they did last year because of this.

“Right now, you start seeing people exporting maize to earn foreign exchange, which I think we need to stop, so that we don’t create shortage; and we need to make sure we grow more so we don’t have a shortage. It is about food security, and it is very, very serious.”

And CEO of Flour Mills of Nigeria, Boye Olusanya, corroborated: “Today, the prices of wheat have gone up. There is a lag that comes because of inventory control, but it is something that we need to sit down with the government to say – what measures can we put in place to alleviate what is coming.

“The impact is not just on wheat alone; Ukraine is one of the largest producers of maize, which will also have a significant impact on maize because it is an alternative to wheat.”

He also spoke about what he described as “cross-border trafficking of maize”, saying more farmers will like to take advantage of the crisis.

“When you look at all that and what then happens in pricing, obviously, if we don’t manage this well, there will be significant volume compression, in terms of material that comes in and therefore the volume of food that is sold,” Mr Olusanya added.

Meanwhile, no African country was included in Russia’s export ban list: Of course, even if you want to buy from Russia, avoiding US sanctions will be wise.

“The government has approved a list of imported goods and equipment that are temporarily prohibited from being exported from Russia. The decision will be effective until the end of 2022. It has been adopted as a follow-up to the presidential executive order on the application of special economic measures in foreign economic activity to ensure the security of the Russian Federation. 

“The list includes over 200 products, such as technological, telecommunication and medical equipment, vehicles, agricultural machinery, electric equipment, as well as railway cars and locomotives, containers, turbines, metal and stone cutting machines, video displays, projectors, consoles, and switchboards. This measure is necessary to maintain stability on the Russian Market”.