It is very painful but I project that Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, will likely fail by Thursday, March 17 2022, using the average miles per day Russia is capturing, unless something stops them. In senior secondary school, I studied most subjects available in Secondary Technical School Ovim (Abia) and because of the limitation from WAEC which stipulated a maximum of 9 subjects, I took the extra subjects in GCE while in SS1.
[Comment on my prediction, March 22 2022: In Kiev, physically I was wrong but policy-wise, Kiev actually “fell”. I have stopped writing about this war. Why? The war “ended” on the 15th when Ukrainian leader agreed that Ukraine would not join NATO. (A shift from we have the right to choose the direction of our future).
That acknowledgment would have closed everything except that Russia moved the goalpost. Russia now wants to make Crimea annexation permanent and annex the Donbass region – and link both via Mariupol (the “hell” right now) ,(Read Putin’s phone call with Turkey president).
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Today, President Z was even clearer: “It’s a compromise for everyone: for the West, which doesn’t know what to do with us with regard to NATO, for Ukraine, which wants security guarantees, and for Russia, which doesn’t want further NATO expansion… We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognized,” Zelenskyy said.
Across all points which triggered the war and which Russia requested, Ukraine has agreed to nearly all. But the problem is that Russia has added more. So, Ukraine policy-wise fell before 17th even though militarily that is not the case. Putin is being wicked now for destroying when he has gotten nearly all!]
I made distinctions in them but remained in school to do the other ones in SSCE. I hold my secondary school’s all-time academic record in history till today (I hope someone beats it soon!).
In my history subject, I read about Peter the Great who ruled Russia from 1682 and how he transformed that area. He founded St. Petersburg, Russia’s former capital. He had won the Great Northern War and found access to the Baltic Sea.
Then Stalin, a Soviet era dictator, but who was extremely important in defeating Nazi Germany. The Soviet Union defeated the German Army near the Volga river, finishing Hitler’s armies in the Battle of Stalingrad. That was one of the most important battles in the Second World War.
If you studied history and paid attention to Russian wars, you will notice one thing: water is their fighting god. They always like to control the sea. In the current Ukraine war, the first duty was to control the seaports and once they had managed them, they opened the final phase – control the capital. With Crimea under the control of Russia, their asymmetric superiority in the sea was absolute; Ukraine had no chance!
Recall that Napoleon invaded Russia by crossing the Neman River through Poland; water is the hole and the weak point. Russia in the last 2 weeks wanted to be in charge of the river flanks; that was completed 3 days ago. With that done, those kilometers-long tank convoys were dispersed. That is consistent with strategies postulated in Sun Tzu’s The Art of War.
The next deal now is to encircle the capital of Ukraine and complete the project. Going against Russia will require contesting the seas and waters, not just the capital. Why? If you have no access to the sea, you cannot bring in many items into the country.
Satellites have captured imagery of a convoy of Russian forces that had been slowly advancing towards the Ukraine capital having dispersed and redeployed into nearby locations.
The 64-kilometre-long convoy was first noticed by satellite imagery at the end of February, days after Russian forces invaded Ukraine.
Recent satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed the long line of vehicles, tanks and artillery has broken up and been redeployed, with armoured units seen in towns near the Antonov Airport north of Kyiv.
Peace to the world.
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Comment 1: Wow, insightful and educative. They kept the entire world in the dark on why their convoy of tanks was parked there for weeks. The West was throwing all sorts of theories about such as its a logistics problem, it is this and that, the temperature is going to -20 degrees so it’s will freeze them, they are stuck, etc.
Next, I heard was that the convoys have dispersed and then was they are encircling keiv. It’s a matter of days now before they take Kyiv.
One more thing. You see the West was giving all sorts of excuses not to put boot on the ground in Ukraine, but I believed that was just an excuse. If Russia was a country that is not more advanced militarily than the West, the west would have entered the war.
There must be something they know about Russia militarily that the West are hapless with and allowing Russia has her way.
Also, consider what happened in Syria; the moment Russia joined the fight, the West lost. I have reasons to believe that the West knows that Russia has serious military might that’s maybe more advanced than theirs. That’s why they give Russian her way and fight them via proxy as they are doing in Ukraine now.
Comment 2: Can you put your money on Ukraine falling on Thursday, March 17, 2022?
My Response: I can change my opinion depending on what I see on reporting. But in the last 4 days, looking at average miles gained by day, they are close. But if US joins and stops that advancement, I will update. I am simply using data to extrapolate, nothing more. This is not physics.
Comment: Ndubuisi Ekekwe but Biden said he won’t interfere, candidly saying to him to stay off..
My Response: That is the reason I am projecting Thursday. But if he changes his mind, that changes all. This is not physics. I have based my model based on the current data. They are picking 2-5 miles per day and they are about 10 miles off. I expect them to spend more days in the last 5 miles. We did not do statistics in school for nothing!
Comment: And Ukraine won’t fall on Thursday. If you were so sure of your analysis and extrapolation, the right thing to do would have been to put your money on it and we wait to see Ukraine fall on Thursday.
My Response: You can go to betting site or Las Vegas. My feed is a school. You may not like my post but I see here as a classroom. If you have a better argument, put it across. Otherwise, go to betting site. I like people to challenge my assumption with better points. Go to Vegas and bet. But if you like to be here which I treasure, come here and put counter arguments. We do not bet here.
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So, by Friday, March 18, we expect Field Marshall Putin to blow the whistle and declare the ‘Special Operation’ over, so that we can return to our normal lives?
I cannot wait for the beautiful Friday, so that we can begin the post war analysis of fall of Kiev.
Any plans on what could happen next after the fall of Kiev?
The weak men that fantasized and prodded poor Zelensky into joining NATO have all gone into hiding, issuing statements from their basements.
Ladies and gentlemen, Russia is now the new superpower, with Field Marshall Putin as the Supreme Commander of the universe.
May you live in interesting times!
It’s a pity that Ukraine will be a case study for history students on how not to dance to the drums of war drummed for you when you know the drummers are merely entertainers and won’t step into the ring when you are been beaten.