The United Kingdom is becoming very small. That was a country which had a vision that the world was a playbook – and it went around colonizing nations, from Africa to Asia to North America. But today, after causing so many dislocations in the world, distorting cultures, annihilating ancient empires, the Britain of UK wants to isolate and live happily.

As Ukrainians look for help, the UK plans to take a really insignificant number of refugees; 1,000 or so. Yes, they now want to protect their “homeland” from potential bad people. Nonsense. They did not remember that when they were encouraging a man to stand with a stone against a merciless enemy with a grenade. This goes beyond exiting Europe.

Of course, the aim of Brexit was largely to avoid troubled people running into the UK. If the UK leader does anything different (i.e. allowing Ukrainian refugees into the UK), the core value proposition of Brexit would be muted.

This is a lesson for African leaders: politicians read speeches and most do not even know the contents until they start reading. As you go into negotiations, nothing is absolute. Today, to ensure that Europe continues to get gas from Russia, they cannot cut-off SWIFT (the international payment gateway) 100%, otherwise Russia will ask them to send cash first before delivery!

And of course, those bold NATO threats have stopped. And you know what? Ukraine is now largely on its own. In the Igbo Nation, the elders will say “uwa bu ahia” [the world is a market]. And in all markets, prices move and change. For the UK, NATO and the world, the prices of helping Ukraine have moved and after examining all, none is buying!

People, the world is a market. Go with your senses!

Britain’s prime minister, as Ukrainians dodged Russian bombs. “The uk is way out in front in our willingness to help.” You hardly dare imagine what unwillingness would look like. Britain’s treatment of Ukrainian refugees so far has combined foot-dragging, hard-heartedness, ineptitude and dishonesty. It is sadly typical of the government.

As the invasion began, European Union countries quickly agreed that all Ukrainians could enter without visas and could live, work and receive welfare for at least a year. By contrast, the country that Mr Johnson calls “Global Britain”, which supposedly left the stodgy, bureaucratic eu to pursue closer relations with places (like Ukraine) that are outside the bloc, came up with the meanest offer imaginable. The home secretary, Priti Patel, said Ukrainians might be granted refuge if they had close family members already in Britain. But they would have to obtain visas before being let into the country. After all, Russian infiltrators and “extremists” might be trying to sneak in. Officials even insinuated that Ireland was hazarding Britain’s security by opening its doors

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment 1: I am amazed at the intensity and passion with which my African friends analyze the situation in Europe and Russia and Ukraine and speculate on how to proceed and what should be done now and who is right and should be supported. I wish my African friends would devote themselves to the problems of their own countries with the same passion and love, because they should be aware that this war is paid for by Africa, either by reducing support in the next few years, because of that ,the best way is buying weapons with the money that was originally earmarked for development aid, and Russia and Ukraine are Africa’s largest wheat suppliers. And prices are already rising so much that many Africans are finding it too expensive, which in turn increases the risk of civil unrest.(version after it was edited without the offensive portion)

My Response which LinkedIn has stopped showing is below

Follow up message on LinkedIn

Good People, I received my first ever “censor” from LinkedIn today; they removed my comment. Someone wrote offensively about Africa, and I responded to him. Nothing personal but from history. I do not like to make people feel bad but after seeing that the person had edited his original comment,  I feel that I need to put this comment. Just for the records, I have put my original comment here.

I appreciate everyone coming to this feed and certainly will not like to make people feel bad. Yet,respect is reciprocal. You may not see Nigeria (or Africa) as a respectable country (or continent) but Nigeria is AMAZING to me because as I have noted, there is nothing a nation can give a young man that Nigeria did not offer me.

I attended college on scholarships, received job offers months to graduation, etc, and I am not sure I can ask for more. Yet, I do desire that EVERYONE will have the same testimony. 

This is Sunday; we will show civility here. Every continent has its own challenges and as the Igbo Nation will say, there is no need waking up a sleeping leopard if you want to remain in the forest. Africa has issues. Europe has issues. Do not throw African issues daily at me if you do not want me to remind you of your continent’s history.

Amazing co-learners, remember that we will have a Live session today at 7pm WAT. The Zoom link is in the Board. We will focus on how to build agility and accelerate productivity in the workplaces. I will be the one leading the session. Meanwhile, we have opened registration for the next edition of Tekedia Mini-MBA; register here

Tekedia Institute offers Tekedia Mini-MBA, an innovation management 12-week program, optimized for business execution and growth, with digital operational overlay. It runs 100% online. The theme is Innovation, Growth & Digital Execution – Techniques for Building Category-King Companies. All contents are self-paced, recorded and archived which means participants do not have to be at any scheduled time to consume contents. Besides, programs are designed for ALL sectors, from fintech to construction, healthcare to manufacturing, agriculture to real estate, etc.

The sector- and firm-agnostic management program comprises videos, flash cases, challenge assignments, labs, written materials, webinars, etc by a global faculty coordinated by Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe. It will run from June 6, 2022 to end Sept 3, 2022.

It is very painful but I project that Ukraine’s capital, Kyiv, will likely fail by Thursday, March 17 2022, using the average miles per day Russia is capturing, unless something stops them. In senior secondary school, I studied most subjects available in Secondary Technical School Ovim (Abia) and because of the limitation from  WAEC which stipulated a maximum of 9 subjects, I took the extra subjects in GCE while in SS1. 

[Comment on my prediction, March 22 2022: In Kiev, physically I was wrong but policy-wise, Kiev actually “fell”. I have stopped writing about this war. Why? The war “ended” on the 15th when Ukrainian leader agreed that Ukraine would not join NATO. (A shift from we have the right to choose the direction of our future).

 That acknowledgment would have  closed everything except that Russia moved the goalpost. Russia now wants to make Crimea annexation permanent and annex the Donbass region – and link both via Mariupol (the “hell” right now) ,(Read Putin’s phone call with Turkey  president). 

Today, President Z was even clearer: “It’s a compromise for everyone: for the West, which doesn’t know what to do with us with regard to NATO, for Ukraine, which wants security guarantees, and for Russia, which doesn’t want further NATO expansion… We have heard for years that the doors were open, but we also heard that we could not join. It’s a truth and it must be recognized,” Zelenskyy said.

 Across all points which triggered the war and which Russia requested, Ukraine has agreed to nearly all. But the problem is that Russia has added more. So, Ukraine policy-wise fell before 17th even though militarily that is not the case. Putin is being wicked now for destroying when he has gotten nearly all!]

I made distinctions in them but remained in school to do the other ones in SSCE. I hold my secondary school’s all-time academic record in history till today (I hope someone beats it soon!).

In my history subject, I read about Peter the Great who ruled Russia from 1682 and how he transformed that area. He founded St. Petersburg, Russia’s former capital. He had won the Great Northern War and found access to the Baltic Sea.

Then Stalin, a Soviet era dictator, but who was extremely important in defeating Nazi Germany. The Soviet Union defeated the German Army  near the Volga river, finishing Hitler’s armies in the Battle of Stalingrad. That was one of the most important battles in the Second World War.

If you studied history and paid attention to Russian wars, you will notice one thing: water is their fighting god. They always like to control the sea. In the current Ukraine war, the first duty was to control the seaports and once they had managed them, they opened the final phase – control the capital. With Crimea under the control of Russia, their asymmetric superiority in the sea was absolute; Ukraine had no chance!

Recall that Napoleon invaded Russia by crossing the Neman River through Poland; water is the hole and the weak point. Russia in the last 2 weeks wanted to be in charge of the river flanks; that was completed 3 days ago. With that done, those kilometers-long tank convoys were dispersed. That is consistent with strategies postulated in Sun Tzu’s The Art of War.

The next deal now is to encircle the capital of Ukraine and complete the project. Going against Russia will require contesting the seas and waters, not just the capital. Why? If you have no access to the sea, you cannot bring in many items into the country.

Satellites have captured imagery of a convoy of Russian forces that had been slowly advancing towards the Ukraine capital having dispersed and redeployed into nearby locations.

The 64-kilometre-long convoy was first noticed by satellite imagery at the end of February, days after Russian forces invaded Ukraine.

Recent satellite imagery from Maxar Technologies showed the long line of vehicles, tanks and artillery has broken up and been redeployed, with armoured units seen in towns near the Antonov Airport north of Kyiv.

Peace to the world.

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment 1: Wow, insightful and educative. They kept the entire world in the dark on why their convoy of tanks was parked there for weeks. The West was throwing all sorts of theories about such as its a logistics problem, it is this and that, the temperature is going to -20 degrees so it’s will freeze them, they are stuck, etc.

Next, I heard was that the convoys have dispersed and then was they are encircling keiv. It’s a matter of days now before they take Kyiv.

One more thing. You see the West was giving all sorts of excuses not to put boot on the ground in Ukraine, but I believed that was just an excuse. If Russia was a country that is not more advanced militarily than the West, the west would have entered the war.

There must be something they know about Russia militarily that the West are hapless with and allowing Russia has her way.

Also, consider what happened in Syria; the moment Russia joined the fight, the West lost. I have reasons to believe that the West knows that Russia has serious military might that’s maybe more advanced than theirs. That’s why they give Russian her way and fight them via proxy as they are doing in Ukraine now.

Comment 2: Can you put your money on Ukraine falling on Thursday, March 17, 2022?

My Response: I can change my opinion depending on what I see on reporting. But in the last 4 days, looking at average miles gained by day, they are close. But if US joins and stops that advancement, I will update. I am simply using data to extrapolate, nothing more. This is not physics.

Comment: Ndubuisi Ekekwe but Biden said he won’t interfere, candidly saying to him to stay off..

My Response: That is the reason I am projecting Thursday. But if he changes his mind, that changes all. This is not physics. I have based my model based on the current data. They are picking 2-5 miles per day and they are about 10 miles off. I expect them to spend more days in the last 5 miles. We did not do statistics in school for nothing!

Comment: And Ukraine won’t fall on Thursday. If you were so sure of your analysis and extrapolation, the right thing to do would have been to put your money on it and we wait to see Ukraine fall on Thursday.

My Response: You can go to betting site or Las Vegas. My feed is a school. You may not like my post but I see here as a classroom. If you have a better argument, put it across. Otherwise, go to betting site. I like people to challenge my assumption with better points. Go to Vegas and bet. But if you like to be here which I treasure, come here and put counter arguments. We do not bet here.