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Beyond Ukraine, Why Iran Could Shape US Policy on Russia

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As we watch images from Ukraine, do not forget to pay attention to Vienna and the new nuclear deal negotiations with Iran. The US government under Obama along with Russia and other countries signed a landmark nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. The main goal was to get Iran to limit its nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief.  President Trump later punted the deal, restored the sanctions, but did not put a replacement; Iran also exited the deal and threatened to continue its uranium enrichment.

President Biden now wants to revive the deal,  and that means bringing Iran back to the table. Russia was among the countries working on that. But because of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been massively sanctioned by US and Europe. Many implications here on this new nuclear deal.

What I see to happen is this: Russia will pull out of this new negotiation, frustrating the US and Europe. And if Russia pulls out, this deal could be weakened. And if that happens, Iran can change course, deciding to work with Russia to get nuclear weapons.

So, the real question is this: would US/Europe prefer to keep sanctions on Russia and risk having Iran to posses nuclear weapons? I do not think so. Also, I do not expect the US/Europe to attack Iran if it decides to work with Russia to develop nuclear weapons. Doing that would be a big irony considering the root cause of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine.

As the negotiations continue in Vienna, it is evident that Europe wants this deal fast. The International Atomic Energy Agency has noted that Iran has hit 60% on its uranium enrichment, a threshold close to weapons-grade level. 

A totally sanctioned Russia is not possible since Europe needs energy at least for months before it finds an alternative.

Will sanctions on Russia buy Iran more time OR will US/Europe in the next few months remove sanctions to get Russia to join back in the deal? What do you think? I do think that at the end, US will modulate on Russia to get its help to keep Iran under control. This is part of the reason why I think Ukraine needs to make a decision

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment: Interesting scenario but I think the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, will not align himself and his state with another that has been drastically weakened.

Through the sanctions imposed by many countries, many major companies pulling out of Russia, and road blocks to the international monetary systems, Russia will be weakened and damaged for years, if not decades, to come – and that’s without future punishment inflicted upon them. The supreme leader of Iran will not align himself with that.

Instead he will participate in a negotiated settlement and receive financial rewards for not enriching uranium. He will back off and receive financial compensation to do so.

My response: great points. It is a chess game, especially now the world is asking Venezuela if it has fuel to sell. In other words, the next enemy is the main focus. I personally do not think the world will like Russia to become another North Korea. But if that becomes the state, I am not sure Europe will like an alternate world controlled by North Korea and Russia. There is a reason for that: If Russia collapses, Europe will fade because you cannot control all the pieces of terrible weapons that will scatter all over Europe. Keeping Russia in a stable state will become a topic by max 2023 because it is a nuclear power and you will not want it to collapse.

Spoke Today At Reliance Infosystems’ Staff Event on “Blitzscaling and Pursuit of Massive Business Growth”

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Today, I spoke at Reliance Infosystems’ staff event with the broad theme of “Equipping Today’s Talents to Fuel our Global Ambition” on the topic “Blitzscaling and Pursuit of Massive Business Growth”. It was a great audience from a house of technology innovation.

Reliance Infosystems is a category-king player in its sector and has grown rapidly with operations in many African countries. My message was simple: combining factors of production to create services and products at domains that turns customers into fans would be catalytic as it pursues its mission to “provide suitable technology systems to support clients’ business goals.”

I want to thank the CEO Olayemi Popoola and the team for the opportunity. More wins for Reliance.

They were Dancing on duty: a follow-up

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Wrong does not cease to be wrong because the majority share in it ~Leo Nikolayevich Tolstoy (Russian Nobel Prize Writer and Philosopher)

The level of criticisms and bashing I have been getting on my last piece titled “they were dancing on duty”, whereby I openly take a different standpoint from the popular opinions of netizens and majority of Nigeria on the dancing security boys brouhaha which are now called “the happy boys” is the reason for this rejoinder. 

In that piece, I was of the opinion that the two security boys that were fired from the Chicken Republic restaurant for dancing while at work inside the chicken republic eatery deserve what they got; although, outrightly firing them maybe said to too harsh but they definitely deserved to be sanctioned and disciplined for the public display of unprofessionalism, the act of indiscipline, gross professional misconduct, ineptitudes and engaging in frivolities while at work.

I still maintain that standpoint and nothing can change that.

I’m aware of the reaction the whole incident caused on the social media and people were openly rooting for the two security lads, intentionally giving a blind eye to the misdeeds  of the guys and the boys  got attentions of those who chose to help them again and give them a second chance; but let’s learn to say things as it is. The actions of the boys were professionally wrong from every angle you want to look at it, there’s no how anybody can paint it to convince anybody otherwise; for Jesus sake you are employed to be a security in a restaurant and not a dancer, so why engaging in the act of dancing during the working hour at the disturbance of the whole environment.

The way Nigerians have been celebrating the two lads points to the moral decadence of the society, no other country of the world am I aware that wrongs, professional misconduct, lack of discipline and bad work ethics  are celebrated and openly rewarded, only in Nigeria. Little wonder why corrupt politicians, civil servants and well known corrupt individuals in the Nigerian societies are awarded chieftaincy titles.

For the record, I have no personal grievances against the lads and I’m personally happy that they got a second chance and some people decided to take another chance on them but if they happen to get another job, maybe a better job, it will still be wrong, morally and professionally wrong if they depart from their job description to engage in some frivolities during working hours.

What is wrong is wrong, no matter how much you paint it, it is and will still be wrong.

https://youtu.be/9rVfQhn_0RA

Nigeria’s borrowing and the global challenges

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A few days ago i read a long article on LinkedIn, supported by some fairly ‘selective’ stats. The conclusion was that Nigeria has such a low relationship between public borrowing and GDP that we all have nothing to worry about.

More borrowing is ‘very ok’.

I completely disagree. The article didn’t lie. It simply reflected facts in a certain manner, and conspicuously left out some certain key ingredients.

Some people do not like to include ‘bitter leaf’. But know if you leave that one out in some things you have to cook, the result will taste fake.

Even ogili sef.

Two stats that figured extensively in the argument was Nigeria’s place as the top country by GDP in the continent of Africa, and it’s relatively low % of GDP, which at the time, was slightly south of 25%

In Nigeria, towards the end of 2021, N2.54 trillion was added within three months.By the end of 2021, debt stood at over N38 trillion.

The  Debt Management Office (DMO) said in December last year that the increase is due to N6.6 trillion in Eurobonds issued by the federal government in September, according to a report by TheCable.

The DMO has also got an agreed planned rise from 25% of GDP to 40% in staggered stages which started 2020 and are intended to end 2023. This is a bit scary.

 

The thing is, everything is about a nations citizens survival. GDP on its own is a fairly superfluous stat until it is combined with the population of the country.

This produces one of the most important statistics that represent citizen welfare – GDP per capita.

Nigeria’s official population figures are probably about as real as the CBN rates of FOREX.

We all know there is a hidden market where dollars and euros are worth more Naira than what CBN says.

In the same way, you will find when major political parties do their homework in preparation for elections, they discover human beings that census data seems to be unaware of… and that is only those eligible to vote.

Extrapolated intelligence driven estimates put the current population at around 270 million.

Current GDP per capita is $2396.04 as compared to $2502 the previous year, but with official stats always underestimating population, the real figure is probably around 25% less than that. In other words somewhere around $1800.

On official stats this puts Nigeria 18th on the continent of Africa but with adjustment for an artificially deflated population, it could be much lower than this.

The other statistic that is really important is the % of average household income that needs to be spent on food. At 58.9%, Nigeria spends more of its household income on food than any other nation in the world.

The lowest in the world, is the US, at 8.6%.

While the US is at a comfortable level, on household food spend, its debt as a % of GDP is alarming, running at 1.25, in other words 125%. This means despite an economy running at a tear away pace, it is dragging itself down into debt more and more with every passing year.

With a need to respond to the war between Russia and Ukraine, following on from having to take a strategic global lead in dealing with COVID, the US is having one set of extraordinary circumstances after another in respect of borrowing challenges.

No country should ever be allowing its borrowing to equal or exceed its GDP, regardless of how successful its economy is.

It is interesting that the SWIFT system hasn’t completely shut out Russia, with quotes from politicians referring to ‘some banks’. While the price of oil related commodities is fixed in dollars, this however does not stop trade actors citing the depressed rouble as an argument to get Russian exports at a discount.

While Biden has announced, ‘We’re banning all imports of Russian oil and gas and energy.
That means Russian oil will no longer be acceptable at U.S. ports, and the American people will deal another powerful blow to Putin’s war machine.’ – this doesn’t evidence that no company with some level of US ownership will buy Russian product and sell it on somewhere else.

Economic challenge is often lurking in what leaders fail to say, rather than what is on record.

Nevertheless, these challenges are US challenges and Nigeria should take no solace that such difficulties face arguably the strongest economy in the world.

Nigeria has to face difficult questions birthed in Nigeria and no foreign economy can offer lessons learnt.

With both Nigeria’s GDP per capita so depressed, even by African standards, and its income spend per household on food so inflated, it is questionable whether responsible political leadership can advocate any public borrowing at all, far less for a rise.

Time to stop borrowing.

All URLs accessed 10-03-2022

legit.ng/business-economy/economy/1448271-more-borrowing-increased-nigerias-public-debt-n38trn-2021-dmo-says/

premiumtimesng.com/news/top-news/442595-nigeria-raises-borrowing-limit-to-40-of-gdp.html

tradingeconomics.com/nigeria/gdp-per-capita

johnmckeown.tiny.us/9ja-regulate-foodcost-mypush

worldatlas.com/articles/countries-with-the-highest-expenses-on-food-relative-to-household-expenses.html

www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/speeches-remarks/2022/03/08/remarks-by-president-biden-announcing-u-s-ban-on-imports-of-russian-oil-liquefied-natural-gas-and-coal/

Improving the Quality of Service Offered by Private Tutors

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I saw a post on a wall advertising the services of a home tutor. What caught my attention was that this advertiser promised to handle all subjects for all the classes in primary and secondary schools perfectly. It is possible that he has an outfit that recruits home tutors in different subjects; but it is also possible that this person is actually the one teaching those subjects for all the classes.

It is rare these days for a tutor to handle students in different subjects in senior secondary schools, but we can still find people like that among those handling primary and junior secondary school students. It is a common thing to see primary school teachers doing home lessons for children in all the subjects. If you ask them how they manage, they will tell you that they have been teaching them before so it’s no big deal. But what most of them actually do is read-up textbooks and transfer whatever they read to the children. Should any challenging topic come up, they either avoid it or pass on wrong knowledge. Using great online language tutors can help to improve capabilities. 

There are some subjects home tutors shouldn’t be allowed to handle unless they are deeply rooted in them. Subjects such as English, Nigerian languages, Mathematics, Physics, Chemistry, Further Mathematics, Biology, and some others are not what someone can just pick up a textbook, read up and then teach a child; even when it is for someone in primary school. Most problems that need to be resolved in these subjects need the experience of experts, who do not only know how to solve those problems, but also know the right teaching methods for impacting knowledge to their various students.

Speaking of right teaching methods calls to mind the prevalent cases of one lesson tutor teaching a subject to students in different classes. This, as far as I’m concerned, is the same thing as one person teaching different subjects because they will produce the same effect. The truth here is that a teacher is assigned to manage a particular class, or group of classes in school, and is therefore only experienced in handling students within the class range. For instance, a teacher that is managing junior secondary in English may not be assigned to any class in senior secondary. Those in nursery classes do not handle primary schools simultaneously. If a teacher in primary school accepts to be the home tutor for a family with five children scattered between nursery and secondary classes, she is going to be a legend if she’s able to do her job well. This is because, apart from differences in contents, these children all need different teaching methods and techniques as a result of their different classes.

It is true that the economic situation of the country caused lesson teachers to choose whatever they see without making the right choices on who and what to teach, but they should understand that being the jack of all trade might have negative effects on them and on their students.

Examples of these negative effects are:

  1. Lack of Expertise: Since these teachers jump from one class to another or from subject to the other, they will find it difficult to locate their niche. Some of those that have decided to settle noticed they were good in handling, say nursery school pupils or Phonics for primary pupils, and have, therefore, focused all their attentions there. This sort of people are paid heavily for their services, despite handling just a subject for a particular class.
  2. Confusing their Students: When a secondary school teacher accepts to tutor a primary three pupil, that child may end up confused because the lesson teacher is either saying something “different” from what her class teacher taught her, or he is saying something that the child doesn’t understand. This is sometimes caused by the use of different teaching methods or lack of in-depth knowledge of the subject matter.
  3. Passing Inappropriate Knowledge: Learning as a continuous process also means that every class has a set of knowledge mapped out for its students. Every concept is broken down in such a way that its features are taught progressively. The only way a tutor will know the features of the concept to be taught at a particular time is to gain access to the curriculum. When this teacher accesses the curriculum, he will then need to prepare the lesson plan and activities. So you can imagine what it will be like to prepare a lesson plan for pupils in different classes and for different subjects. This might be obtainable but it will be too cumbersome for the tutor. Should he fail or decide not obtain the curriculum for each class, he will only end up teaching what is either too low or too high for his student.
  4. Ineffectiveness: Some parents complain that their children’s lesson teachers are not doing well because their children’s academic performances do not reflect the huge amount of money spent on private lessons. When I hear things like this I only advise the parents to either be patient with their children, or to verify the qualifications of their children’s tutors. In most cases, the problem is that the lesson tutors were not the right people to handle the job. For instance, hiring someone that is handling secondary school classes to tutor a primary two child that is dyslexic may prove ineffective because the teacher, at that time, only specialises in teaching students that can duly put down their thoughts in writing.

Things are hard in the country true and true, but that is not an excuse for private lesson teachers to pick up students without due considerations on what they, the tutors, have to offer. It’s high time lesson teachers started carving their niche too; that is the best way to develop themselves and help their clients.