As we watch images from Ukraine, do not forget to pay attention to Vienna and the new nuclear deal negotiations with Iran. The US government under Obama along with Russia and other countries signed a landmark nuclear deal with Iran in 2015. The main goal was to get Iran to limit its nuclear ambitions in exchange for sanctions relief. President Trump later punted the deal, restored the sanctions, but did not put a replacement; Iran also exited the deal and threatened to continue its uranium enrichment.
President Biden now wants to revive the deal, and that means bringing Iran back to the table. Russia was among the countries working on that. But because of the Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, Russia has been massively sanctioned by US and Europe. Many implications here on this new nuclear deal.
What I see to happen is this: Russia will pull out of this new negotiation, frustrating the US and Europe. And if Russia pulls out, this deal could be weakened. And if that happens, Iran can change course, deciding to work with Russia to get nuclear weapons.
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So, the real question is this: would US/Europe prefer to keep sanctions on Russia and risk having Iran to posses nuclear weapons? I do not think so. Also, I do not expect the US/Europe to attack Iran if it decides to work with Russia to develop nuclear weapons. Doing that would be a big irony considering the root cause of the current Russian invasion of Ukraine.
As the negotiations continue in Vienna, it is evident that Europe wants this deal fast. The International Atomic Energy Agency has noted that Iran has hit 60% on its uranium enrichment, a threshold close to weapons-grade level.
A totally sanctioned Russia is not possible since Europe needs energy at least for months before it finds an alternative.
Will sanctions on Russia buy Iran more time OR will US/Europe in the next few months remove sanctions to get Russia to join back in the deal? What do you think? I do think that at the end, US will modulate on Russia to get its help to keep Iran under control. This is part of the reason why I think Ukraine needs to make a decision.
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Comment: Interesting scenario but I think the supreme leader of Iran, Ali Khamenei, will not align himself and his state with another that has been drastically weakened.
Through the sanctions imposed by many countries, many major companies pulling out of Russia, and road blocks to the international monetary systems, Russia will be weakened and damaged for years, if not decades, to come – and that’s without future punishment inflicted upon them. The supreme leader of Iran will not align himself with that.
Instead he will participate in a negotiated settlement and receive financial rewards for not enriching uranium. He will back off and receive financial compensation to do so.
My response: great points. It is a chess game, especially now the world is asking Venezuela if it has fuel to sell. In other words, the next enemy is the main focus. I personally do not think the world will like Russia to become another North Korea. But if that becomes the state, I am not sure Europe will like an alternate world controlled by North Korea and Russia. There is a reason for that: If Russia collapses, Europe will fade because you cannot control all the pieces of terrible weapons that will scatter all over Europe. Keeping Russia in a stable state will become a topic by max 2023 because it is a nuclear power and you will not want it to collapse.
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You didn’t include a key component, what is the track record of people that will be leading these complex negotiations? It’s the quality of people involved that determines if any decent deal can be struck, mediocres don’t make great deals.
Iran is not negotiating from weak position at this point, so, what and what are the US and its allies willing to concede without giving everything away? The names of the leading negotiators will tell you how it will end up, it’s not a hard science.
This is a world where average people pose as foreign policy experts, just because they attended ivy league universities and then worked in government, whatever their performance record says is irrelevant; but we must listen to them, because they are the experts…
They will call it negotiation, but they are basically demanding that you do what they ask for, and when you disagree, they end up with a bad deal or complete disaster; we have seen it before.
When you are both weak and arrogant, it’s almost impossible to make good deal with those you consider to be rogues, because you will find everything they propose irritating.
No chance, they will talk till they exit their political positions, then another group will come and start talking again.