The expiration of over $4.5 billion in crypto options on Deribit, coinciding with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls (NFP) report on Friday, September 5, 2025, is a significant event that could influence cryptocurrency market dynamics, particularly for Bitcoin (BTC).
Over $4.5 billion in crypto options are set to expire on Deribit, a leading cryptocurrency derivatives exchange, on Friday at 08:00 UTC. $3.28 billion for approximately 29,000 BTC options contracts. $112,000, the price level at which the maximum number of options contracts would expire worthless, causing the greatest financial loss for option holders.
1.38, indicating a bearish sentiment as more put options (bets on price declines) are being traded compared to call options (bets on price increases). Puts are clustered around the $105,000–$110,000 strike prices, suggesting traders are anticipating a potential Bitcoin price drop below $105,000.
Expected to show 75,000 jobs added in August (up from 73,000 previously) and an unemployment rate rising to 4.3% (from 4.2%). This report, due at 12:30 UTC, could impact broader financial markets, including cryptocurrencies, as it influences expectations for U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decisions.
Implications for Bitcoin
The max pain point represents the price at which the most options (both puts and calls) expire worthless, maximizing losses for option holders. Option sellers (typically institutions with significant capital) may attempt to push the spot price toward this level to minimize their payouts.
As of now, Bitcoin is trading around $110,004.75, slightly below the max pain point. If the price remains near or moves toward $112,000 by expiry, it could lead to significant options expiring worthless, potentially stabilizing or capping price movements in the short term.
A put-call ratio above 1 indicates more put options than call options, reflecting bearish sentiment among traders. The clustering of puts around $105,000–$110,000 suggests many traders are hedging against or betting on a price decline below these levels. This bearish bias aligns with recent market conditions, including $115 million in long position liquidations and rising long-term Treasury yields, which have increased selling pressure on Bitcoin.
Impact of the NFP Report
The NFP report is a key macroeconomic indicator that can influence risk assets like cryptocurrencies. A weaker-than-expected report (e.g., job growth below 75,000 or unemployment above 4.3%) could signal economic slowdown, potentially strengthening expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which are generally bullish for risk assets like Bitcoin.
Conversely, a stronger-than-expected report could reinforce expectations of sustained or higher interest rates, potentially increasing selling pressure on Bitcoin and pushing it toward the $105,000–$110,000 range where puts are concentrated. Historical data suggests that NFP releases can trigger short-term volatility in crypto markets, as seen in previous instances where Bitcoin prices reacted to unexpected jobs data.
Large options expiries, especially quarterly ones, often lead to heightened volatility as traders close or roll over positions. The $4.5 billion expiry, with Bitcoin accounting for $3.28 billion, could amplify price swings, particularly if the NFP report deviates significantly from expectations.
However, the max pain theory suggests that prices may gravitate toward $112,000, potentially mitigating extreme volatility unless external factors (e.g., NFP data or geopolitical events) trigger a breakout. Ethereum (ETH) options worth $1.28 billion are also expiring, with a put-call ratio of 0.78 (neutral sentiment) and a max pain point of $4,400, slightly above the current price of $4,385.
This suggests less bearish pressure on ETH compared to BTC. XRP options ($5.54 million) have a put-call ratio of 0.93 and a max pain point of $2.90, indicating a balanced but cautious market outlook.
Solana (SOL) is trading down 0.6% with reduced trading volume, reflecting a lack of interest ahead of the NFP report. The broader crypto market is experiencing pullbacks due to profit-taking and liquidations of $115 million in long positions. Rising Treasury yields and gold prices are adding pressure on risk assets like Bitcoin, as investors shift toward safer assets amid fiscal concerns.
Monitor Bitcoin’s price around $105,000–$112,000. A drop below $105,000 could trigger significant put option exercises, while staying near $112,000 may limit losses for option holders. A lower-than-expected jobs number or higher unemployment rate could boost Bitcoin prices by increasing expectations for monetary easing. A stronger report may exacerbate bearish sentiment.
Expect short-term price swings around the 08:00 UTC expiry and 12:30 UTC NFP release. Post-expiry, markets may stabilize unless a significant breakout occurs. Key support lies around $105,000, with resistance at $118,000–$121,000, as noted in recent market analyses.
The $4.5 billion crypto options expiry on Deribit, combined with the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report, sets the stage for potential volatility in the Bitcoin market. The bearish put-call ratio of 1.38 and max pain point of $112,000 suggest traders are bracing for a possible price drop toward $105,000–$110,000, especially if the NFP report signals tighter monetary policy.
However, a weaker-than-expected NFP could spark a recovery, potentially pushing Bitcoin toward higher resistance levels. Traders should closely monitor price action around the expiry and NFP release, as these events could dictate Bitcoin’s short-term direction.
