In the Q4 2020 report, The National Bureau of Statistics (NBS), says Nigeria’s GDP grew by 0.11% from the 6.11% contraction in Q3, signaling a gradual exit from recession.

NBS said the report represents the first positive quarterly growth in the last three quarters.

“Though weak, positive growth reflects the gradual return of economic activities following the easing of restricted movements and limited local and international commercial activities in the preceding quarters.

“As a result, while the Q4 2020 growth rate was lower than the growth rate recorded the previous year by –2.44 per cent, it was higher by 3.74% compared to Q3 2020.

“On a quarter-on-quarter basis, real GDP growth was 9.68% indicating a second positive consecutive quarter-on-quarter real growth rate in 2020, after two negative quarters,” the report noted.

The NBS said overall, in 2020, the annual growth of real GDP was estimated at –1.92%, a decline of –4.20% when compared to the 2.27% recorded in 2019.

It said in the quarter under review, aggregate GDP stood at N43.564 billion in nominal terms.

This performance, the bureau said was higher when compared to Q4 2019, which recorded a GDP aggregate of N39.577 billion, representing a year-on-year nominal growth rate of 10.07%.

The report shows varying performance in the oil and non-oil sectors of the economy.

For the oil sector, the average daily oil production of 1.56 million barrels per day (mbpd) was recorded in the fourth quarter.

This was lower than the daily average production of 2.00 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2019 by -0.44 mbpd and Q3 2020 by –0.11 mbpd.

The real growth of the oil sector was –19.76% (year-on-year) in Q4 indicating a decrease by –26.12% relative to the rate recorded in the corresponding quarter of 2019.

“Growth decreased by –5.87% when compared to Q3 2020, while quarter-on-quarter, the oil sector recorded a growth rate of –26.27% in Q4.

“For 2020, the oil sector grew at –8.89% compared to 4.59% in 2019,” the report stated.

It added that the oil sector contributed 5.87% to total real GDP in Q4, down from the corresponding period of 2019 and the preceding quarter, where it contributed 7.32% and 8.73% respectively.

For the non-oil sector, there’s growth of 1.69% in real terms in the quarter under review, slower than the 2.26% recorded in the corresponding quarter the previous year, the NBS said.

The Bureau however, said it was better than the –2.51% growth rate recorded in the preceding quarter.

It explained that for the full year of 2020, the non-oil sector grew by –1.25% compared to 2.06% in 2019. And the growth in the sector was driven by information and communication (Telecommunications and Broadcasting).

Other drivers were agriculture (crop production), real estate, manufacturing (food, beverage and tobacco), mining and quarrying (quarrying and other minerals) and construction, accounting for positive GDP.

“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 94.13% to the nation’s GDP in Q4 2020, higher than the share recorded in Q4 2019 (92.68%) and Q3 2020 (91.27%).

“For 2020, the non-oil sector contributed 91.84% to real GDP, higher than 91.22% recorded in 2019,” the NBS report said.

The major drivers are: Information and Communication which contributed 14.70%; Agriculture, 3.42%; Health & Social Services, 3.05%; Real Estate, 2.81%; Water Supply, 1.92%; while Public Administration and Construction recorded 1.80% and 1.21% respectively.

Meanwhile, Nigeria’s inflation rate has climbed to a 33-month high, as it rose from 15.75% to 16.47% in January, according to data from NBS. The report noted that food inflation rose from 19.56% in the previous month to 20.57% in January, while core inflation leaped from 11.37% in December to 11.85% in January.

It is the highest rate of inflation recorded by Nigeria since 2008 July, when food inflation hit 12.9%. The NBS attributed the rise to increases in prices of bread and cereals, potatoes, yam and other tubers, meat, fruits, vegetables, fish, oils and fats.

The Bureau said the composite food index rose from 17.38% in September 2020 to 18.30% in October.

Nigeria has been grappling with inflation since late 2019, following the decision of the federal government to close land borders. Although the borders were reopened in December, plummeted oil revenue and shocks from COVID-19-induced lockdown have kept the inflation on the rise.

Innovators & Visionaries, Tekedia Live begins tomorrow. That is the core beginning of our academic festival in Tekedia Mini-MBA. If you have not joined, time is running out to join. I will begin the excursion with “Innovation and Growth – The Path to Category-kIng”. Register here today; it’s time.

Tekedia Institute offers an innovation management 12-week program, optimized for business execution and growth, with digital operational overlay. It runs 100% online. The theme is Innovation, Growth & Digital Execution – Techniques for Building Category-King Companies. All contents are self-paced, recorded and archived which means participants do not have to be at any scheduled time to consume contents.

It is a sector- and firm-agnostic management program comprising videos, flash cases, challenge assignments, labs, written materials, webinars, etc by a global faculty coordinated by Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe.

The United States hit Huawei with a massive asymmetric attack when it banned the technology powerhouse from accessing its semiconductor technologies. As expected, Huawei fell: “Huawei’s smartphone sales plunged 42% in the last quarter of 2020 as it struggled with a limited supply of microchips due to the sanctions.”  I did note when that happened that Huawei had limited options, since the United States through companies like Cadence and Mentor, control more than 98% of the CAD software used for making high-end integrated circuits. Cut-off anyone, and that firm dies.

So, with no option, Huawei has moved into pig farming and improving  the mining sector with technologies. Certainly, those ones do not require the precision required in modern smartphones. But this game is not over: China is planning to ban the export of rare earth metals to the United States as a retaliation for cutting Huawei out of the global chip supply chain. If that happens, you can indeed make the designs but will struggle with materials to fabricate the chips. Of course, unlike CAD systems, the US has options on the materials which can be sourced from other areas, though at a higher cost.

But everything now depends on President Biden, and how he plays with China and Huawei.

In response to struggling smartphone sales, Huawei is looking at other sources of revenue for its technology.

Along with Artificial Intelligence (AI) tech for pig farmers, Huawei is also working with the coal mining industry.

Former US President Donald Trump claimed Huawei can share customer data with the Chinese government, allegations it has repeatedly denied.

As a result, the world’s largest telecoms equipment maker has been limited to making 4G models as it lacks US government permission to import components for 5G models.

Huawei’s smartphone sales plunged 42% in the last quarter of 2020 as it struggled with a limited supply of microchips due to the sanctions.

There is a massive yard sale in Nigeria now. Yes, Nigeria plans to sell or concession many properties to raise funds, largely to finance the 2021 budget. These properties are from energy, industries, communication and infrastructural sectors, and are expected to be concessioned or sold between now and Nov 2022, Premium Times reports:  “Top among these properties are the Abuja Environmental Protection Board (AEPB), the Abuja International Conference Centre (ICC), some unnamed refineries, the Transmission Company of Nigeria (TCN), Abuja Water Board, Nigerian Film Corporation, among others.”

As a citizen, I am helping to advertise the yard sale! Pick, pay, and carry-home. Look at the numbers, we invest $100 million,  and we look for buyers at $10 million. What a nation!

People, Nigeria is a poorly run entity and I am not saying this because I have better ideas. I am simply reporting a statement of facts. When the cost of your capital is 60% of your revenue, your future as an entity is not certain. The uncertainty brings a vicious circle where you have to sell everything on the way to service debts, and that triggers more paralyses.

Nigeria can sell everything, collect pension funds, borrow dividend funds, pick dormant bank balances, tax remittance, etc, but the outlook will not change until it reforms its economic architecture. We have no incentives for intra-competition across state lines and we do not reward hard work in the ways we compensate states: “Twenty-six Nigerian states recorded zero foreign investment in the whole of 2020”. People, it is a big yard sale – and everything is discounted. Go ahead.

Twenty-six Nigerian states recorded zero foreign investment in the whole of 2020, figures released by the National Bureau of Statistics show.

The report on capital importation into the country, compiled by the Central Bank of Nigeria, was released on Friday by the NBS.

It captures the total Foreign Direct Investment (FDI), portfolio investment and other types of investments into the country in a year the global economy suffered a terrible battering as a result of the coronavirus pandemic.

The total value of capital inflow for the year fell to $9.7 billion, from $24 billion in 2019, representing a decline of 59.7 per cent. It was the lowest in at least four years.

More foreign capital inflows came through “other investments”, followed by FDI, and Portfolio Investment, the report