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Discos Losing 60% of Revenue As Estimated Billing Backfires

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electricity companies nigeria

As coronavirus induced lockdown takes effect in many states in Nigeria, Electricity Distribution Companies (DisCos) are reporting 60% loss in revenue due to the economic impact of the lockdown on households.

Everyone is cutting down on expenses, prioritizing survival as people’s means of livelihood have been halted by the lockdown.

The DisCos that used to rake in millions through estimated billing said it has become difficult for many to pay due to the crisis. The situation has resulted in 60% loss of revenue for the distribution companies since the majority of Nigerian households are not metered. Data from the Nigerian Electricity Regulatory Commission (NERC) shows that only 3,895,497, representing 40.26% out of 9,674,729 registered electricity consumers use meters.

NERC attributed the unwillingness of customers to pay to estimated billing, which is believed to be more of extortion.

“Thus, 59.74% of the registered electricity customers are still on estimated billing which has contributed to customer apathy towards payment for electricity,” NERC said.

The Ikeja Electric Distribution Company (IKEDC), had in March, as a gesture of goodwill, promised not to disconnect customers during the first phase of the 14-days lockdown. This has made it difficult for the company to disconnect as usual, households who failed to pay their bills.

The DisCos had earlier got into negotiation with the Federal Government to provide free electricity for Nigerians in the face of the lockdown in order to cushion the effects. But the parties failed to reach a deal as the Discos demanded N200 billion from the FG as payment for the electricity supply during the period of the lockdown, but the government distanced itself from the demand.

Metering has been a bone of contention in the Nigerian electricity sector for long, a situation that has existed to the gain of the DisCos as many households are placed on estimated billing. The MAP initiative was introduced in March 2018, to solve the continuous problem between consumers and DisCos over billing but it has failed to live up to expectation.

In February, the NERC rolled a new regime of billing for the DisCos, putting a cap on estimated billing. In a document titled: Order on the Capping of Estimated Bills in the Nigerian Electricity Supply Industry (NESI), signed by James Momoh the NERC Chairman, and Dafe Akpeneye, its Legal, Licensing and Compliance Commissioner, the Regulator said there is a limit to how much the distributors could charge, especially residential areas.

According to the document: “A consumer of XYZ Disco resident in White Acre under R2 (single phase) tariff class has an energy cap of 78 kilowat/hour per month and a tariff of N42 per kilowatt/hour. The maximum that XYZ Disco can invoice such a customer is 78kW/hr x N24/kWhr =N1,872 per month.”

The document added that customers should not be compelled to pay estimated bills if DisCos do not provide prepaid meters.

“The customer shall remain connected to supply without further payment to the DisCos until a meter is installed on the premises under the framework of MAP Regulations or any other financing arrangement approved by the commission,” it said.

Unfortunately, this new regime failed to take effect as DisCos continued with their old pattern. Consumers were forced through disconnection to pay high rates of estimated bills because the marketers count on them to meet up with outrageous targets.

Recent development has however, turned the table around, and the hunter has become the hunted.

DisCos across Nigeria are lamenting about their losses as the priority of consumers have changed from bills to survival. Moreover, many businesses have been shut down following the lockdown order, and the distribution companies complain that the volume of energy supply remains the same.

It is believed that the metering plan (MAP) that was introduced last year has been sabotaged so that DisCos will continue to issue outrageous bills to unmetered customers.

The MAP programme allows third-party investors to provide meters at costs segmented according to the capacity of the meters, and thereafter, get paid through customers’ retail payment for electricity. The process has been abused so that consumers who applied for the meters hardly get them unless they pay twice the original cost.

One of the reasons for the scarcity and high cost of meters has been attributed to the upward review of import levy on electricity meters from 10% to 45%, by the Ministry of Finance. The implementation went into effect immediately resulting in abandonment of thousands of meters at the ports.

COVID-19 has turned the tide with a huge implication for the electricity distributors, limiting their earnings to 40%. And the DisCos are expected to lose more in revenue generation if the lockdown is extended beyond the two weeks.

The Nigeria’s Tax Agency Plea

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The Federal Inland Revenue service (FIRS) issued a statement demanding that booming businesses in Nigeria increase their tax payment as other businesses have been shut down following the surge in coronavirus pandemic cases.

In circular entitled: Update On Palliative Measures to Cushion Effect of COVID-19 on Taxpayers, dated 22 April 2020, and was signed by the FIRS Executive Chairman, Muhammad Nami, the tax body asked corporate organizations to commence their annual tax return earlier than supposed, to enable the federal government to generate the much needed revenue.

“Further to my statement on Monday 6th April 2020, on the palliative measures put in place to cushion the effects of COVID-19 on Taxpayers and my assurance to keep you updated with information specific to Taxpayers as it becomes expedient. I wish to appeal to a section of taxpayers, whose sectors are experiencing a boom and significant increase of income at this point in time, for a high level of cooperation in payment of their taxes.

“As I have done in many public fora in recent times, I wish to acknowledge and reiterate the difficulty businesses are going through at this time of COVID-19 pandemic. You will note that early in the lockdown we put out palliative measures to cushion the effects of the economic shocks occasioned by the pandemic on taxpayers. Nonetheless, we wish to acknowledge that some sectors such as Telcos; financial institutions, e-commerce, supermarkets, manufacturers/processors of certain products, etc. are experiencing boom due to increased transactions as a result of the lockdown or even despite the pandemic.

“As is currently obvious, the economic downturn that resulted from the global shutdown occasioned largely by the COVID-19 pandemic has continued to put pressure on revenue generating agencies including the FIRS; thereby straining governments to bridge budgets funding gaps.

“In view of the above, I wish to specially make an appeal to corporate bodies in the sectors mentioned above to go the extra mile at this time to cooperate with us in making special arrangements to pay their taxes. They may consider, for instance, a situation where they can commence payment of their annual returns earlier than the due date apart from their normal monthly obligations. This has become necessary in order to ease some of the cash flow gaps being experienced by the government at this critical time.

“I look forward to positive responses from the aforementioned sectors. Let me assure you once again that we will continue to provide support to all taxpayers as directed by president Buhari in his lockdown speech of Sunday 29th March 2020, and will keep you updated with information specific to taxpayers as we deem fit,” the statement said.

As expected, backlash followed the statement. Nigerians reacting to the new step taken by FIRS believe it is quite insensitive for the tax body to be talking of taxes in the face of global pandemic that is taking a toll on businesses, which has other countries waiving taxes in order to sustain their economy.

“All you’re interested in is putting further strain on an already overstretched economy. How are financial institutions, e commerce, supermarkets or manufacturers experiencing boom when the purchasing power of the masses has been drastically reduced & there is restricted movement,” a Twitter user responded.

In another response, the FIRS was urged to employ another method in tackling the deficiency in revenue generation because none of the sectors of the economy is exempt from the ravages of the pandemic.

“It’s an ill-thought and knee jerk policy from the tax man. Like you said, virtually all sectors are limping from low purchasing power, devalued naira, increase in logistics and also sundry unbudgeted costs. A better tool kit would have been to use Tax Anticipation Notes,” a Twitter user wrote.

Compared to what other countries around the world are doing to help businesses, the FIRS’ move to implement early taxation is believed to be anti-business.

“Another low for the FIRS and this govt. other countries are giving businesses relief package, Nigeria is adding more burden. Dear business owners, pay your tax only as at when due. You need that cash more than the govt. this is not the time to be unnecessary generous,” Oke Umurhohwo wrote on Sunday.

Earlier, the Inland Revenue Service has announced some measures it has taken to help businesses. In a circular it shared on the 6th of April, the tax body outlined a 6-point provision it has made to ease the pain of economic strain on businesses. That includes using the e-filing platforms to submit documents instead visiting FIRS’ offices. Waiving the Late Returns Penalty (LRP) for early tax payers, extending VAT remittance from the 21st of the month to the last day of the month and the period of filing PIT returns for Foreign Affairs, Non-Residents, Military and police has also been extended to June 2020. Taxpayers who have difficulty offsetting their liability due to scarcity of forex were granted a window to pay with naira.

To many, these measures are much less a remedy to the plights of businesses because the national supply chain has been disrupted, and every business is feeling the heat. Companies have started laying off staff to ease the economic burden. And in the disruption of the national supply chain, no business is an island; it’s only a matter of time.

The telcos mentioned by the FIRS as an example of booming business are losing now more than other times as subscribers are being discreet with spending, many are relying on text messages for communication. It is believed that the Inland Revenue Service has made their decision based on the assumption that companies are depending more on online platforms to conduct meetings and conferences, which has been translated to mean more revenue to the telcom service providers.

However, the fury has been based on the FIRS’ inability to see that more businesses and people have halted their telcom services due to the lockdown and financial constraints stemming from the health crisis. And the supermarkets are likely going to run out of supplies very soon, with borders and ports shut, goods and service delivery will be hampered and the stores will have little or nothing on their shelves.

It also means that there is more withdrawal from financial institutions than deposits, a further strain on the banks that are now depending more on interest rates to generate revenue due to closure of businesses.

The ecommerce industry is symbiotic with other businesses. People make online purchases because they have the money. In the face of economic turbulence that calls for prudent spending, the online stores aren’t much better than others, especially when there is restriction of movement and transportation is limited to essential goods and services only.

The statement

UPDATE ON PALLIATIVE MEASURES TO CUSHION THE EFFECT OF COVID – 19 ON TAXPAYERS – 22nd April 2020

Further to my statement on Monday 6th April 2020, on the palliative measures put in place to cushion the effects of COVID – 19 on Taxpayers and my assurance to keep you updated with information specific to Taxpayers as it becomes expedient, I wish to appeal to a section of taxpayers, whose sectors are experiencing a boom and significant increase of income at this point in time, for a high level of cooperation in payment of their taxes.

As I have done in many public fora in recent times, I wish to acknowledge and reiterate my concern on the difficulty businesses are going through at this time of COVID – 19 pandemic. You will note that early in the lockdown we put out palliative measures to cushion the effects of the economic shocks occasioned by the pandemic on taxpayers. Nonetheless, we wish to acknowledge that some sectors such as Telcos, Financial Institutions, eCommerce, Supermarkets, manufacturers/ processors of certain products, etc are experiencing boom due to increased transactions as a result of the lockdown or even despite the pandemic.

As is currently obvious, the economic downturn that results from the global shutdown occasioned largely by the COVID – 19 pandemic has continued to put pressure on revenue generating agencies including the FIRS, thereby straining Governments to bridge budget funding gaps.

In view of the above, I wish to specially make an appeal to corporate bodies in the sectors mentioned above to go the extra mile at this time to cooperate with us in making special arrangements to pay their taxes. They may consider, for instance, a situation where they can commence payment of their annual returns earlier than the due date apart from their normal monthly obligations. This has become necessary in order to ease some of the cash flow gaps being experienced by the government at this critical time.

I look forward to positive responses from the aforementioned sectors. Let me assure you once again that we will continue to provide support to all Taxpayers as directed by President Muhammadu Buhari in his lockdown speech of Sunday 29th March 2020 and will keep you updated with information specific to Taxpayers as we deem fit.

Muhammad Nami

Executive Chairman

COVID-19 and the Lagos Informal Sector – Realities, Implications and Responses

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Authors: Babajide Oluwase, Wole Ademola Ademola

With excitement and fireworks, the world ushered in 2020 with so much dreams and expectations but never thought everything would be brought to a halt and on the brink of global recession in a flash by a virus outbreak. The Coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic which started at the tail-end of 2019 in Wuhan, China has now become the biggest invincible enemy of the world. The world as we know took a challenging turn on 30 January 2020, when the WHO declared the COVID-19 outbreak a public health emergency that should be of international concern. The  pandemic is primarily a health crisis and a human tragedy, but it also has across-the-board economic implications. In Africa, it is already disrupting millions of people’s livelihoods, with disparate impact on poor households and businesses in the informal sector—and the pace of this disruption is likely to speed-up in the weeks and months ahead.

As the world now grapples with the containment measures of COVID-19, countries around the world including Nigeria have put in place measures such as restrictions of movement in Abuja, Ogun and Lagos, currently the epicenter of the outbreak in the country. Nigeria currently has more than 1,000 confirmed cases of COVID-19 with the numbers increasing daily and this means there are choices to be made: to either return to normal or extend the restrictions even when they come with unintended consequences in various spheres.

Lagos, the Epicentre of Nigeria

Lagos exemplifies the challenges that plague most African cities, but on a scale that seems daunting and amplifies the stresses and strains of urbanisation. Even if there is no general consensus on how many people live in Lagos, one thing holds true: the economic nerve of Nigeria is growing at an alarming rate. Though arguable, the State Government records the population of Lagos as over 21 million with a high influx of people from other parts of the country on a daily basis. When Lagos confirmed the first case of the novel virus in Nigeria, it quickly sparked memories of the fears of the Ebola epidemic that hit the megacity six years ago. Though it is believed that there is not enough testing going on, the State governor, has however shown leadership in the implementation of the response strategy so far.

The Informal Sector: What Does it Mean?

The informal sector represents a significant part of economies around the world, especially in developing countries. As described by many economists, the informal sector is a part of the economy not formally recognised or registered under any national legislation. From a non-economist perspective, it is invoked to refer to the street vendor in Ghana, the hawker in India, the shoe-shine worker in New York, the “danfo driver and conductor” in Lagos to mention a few. What these activities have in common is their ability to satisfy basic needs by harnessing informal opportunities and its impact on economies is becoming more significant. For example, in Uganda, about 13.67 million persons of working age (14 – 64 years) are engaged in the informal sector, which represents about 98 percent of the total working age population. In Nigeria, the Bank of Industry (BoI) acknowledges the informal sector as a major economic driver which contributed about 65% to the country’s GDP in 2017. 

COVID-19 and the Lagos Informal Sector 

As Lagos grinds to a halt amid increasing coronavirus cases and movement restrictions, Adebola Rebecca, a 46-year old trader, still visits her shop thrice a week. “How can I stop,” she said, with an edge of desperation in her voice. “For me to eat, I have to make daily income, it’s as simple as that.” Without regular patronage, Adebola spends much of her day sitting back in the hope of making sales to support her family. The struggle with Adebola’s business amid the COVID-19 pandemic captures the realities of millions of informal economy workers in Lagos. Social distancing has necessitated dramatic deviations in the world of work – a shift into remote working. However, such an easy transition only works in the formal sector. Informal sector activities thrive on physical interactions.

In addition, slums and unplanned settlements dotted across the city of Lagos serve as home to most informal sector populations, many of whom lack basic services like potable water, sanitation and decent housing. This reality aggravates their vulnerability during a health crisis, and makes stopping the spread of COVID-19 a complicated task to manage. That the informal workforce was not taken into proper account while declaring a total lockdown is reflective of their invisibility in the State’s consciousness and policymaking.

Amidst the closure of workplaces and avenues of employment, the lack of clear and positive assurances from the political leadership only exacerbated these workers’ anxieties. The economy as we know it was fragile even before the advent of COVID-19, but now the outlook is far worse as government efforts to confront the pandemic paralyze economic activity. No sector, worryingly, may be as vulnerable during the lockdown as the workers who toil in the State’s vast informal economy, employed in precarious work environments, and lacking any form of social security or welfare safety net.

Imagine a city like Lagos with a population of over 21 million and the informal sector is estimated to account for over 70 percent of the working population and approximately 42 percent of the economic activities within the State. This includes hawkers, roadside traders, vulcanisers, battery chargers, hairdressers, carpenters, bricklayers, etc. What this implies is that as the pandemic worsens daily, the majority of informal sector workers may have no option but to prioritise their economic needs over the health implications of the virus. This is not because they are not aware of the impending risks, but as a survival instinct and because the available welfare system is not far-reaching.

Responding to the Impact

As uncertainty envelopes the world and  with one-third of the world’s population (about 2.6 billion people) living in some form of lockdown, the implications are far-reaching. Analysts have described the impact of COVID-19 as being worse than the great depression of 1929 or the financial crisis of 2008. Hence, COVID-19 requires a novel and urgent response that can mitigate the increasing scale of disruption it is causing, especially in the most impacted sector such as the informal sector and communities where the vulnerable and poor reside. 

During the outbreak

  • All Hands on Deck Approach: The most powerful weapon in the fight against the spread and after effect of COVID-19 is public trust. The Government must have an open system in their strategies, policies and economic restructuring. Reinforcing this means getting ahead of the downward curve of contagious fear and social-economic breakdown with responsive communications tailored to local contexts and diverse population groups. Social cohesion and community participation must be an integral framework of strategies being developed by the Government leveraging on communal structures like community-based and faith-based organisations for delivering social welfare packages, water and sanitation facility, and poverty-fix palliatives.
  • Safety Net for All: During this crisis, the government needs to extend support to the poorest decile, most of whom depend on informal activities and who can’t access the CBN N50 Billion COVID-19 Credit Facility. If the stimulus package is implemented in its current form, large proportions of informal workers particularly in Lagos, who depend mostly on irregular daily wages with almost no safety nets to depend on will be left to fend for themselves. The negative impact of this is already being felt in some parts of Lagos where increasing crime rates have been recorded in the past few weeks. What if the Government initiates  a “special grant” to simultaneously address the needs of businesses in the informal sector? This grant can be disbursed through their various registered groups/associations within the State. Adopting this model will not only soften the impact of COVID-19 on the businesses in the informal sector, but it would also act as a trickle-up economic stimulus for the mainstream economy.

Beyond the Outbreak 

  • From Regulators to Enablers: Highly imbalanced societies like Nigeria will continue to give room for more actors in the informal economy. Post COVID-19, it will be in the State’s best interest to integrate the informal sector into their economic development plan in a way that reflects their spatial reality. Beyond taxation, the government should support the sector such  that it fits rightly into their context. For example, the pure water industry was conceived in a bid to exploit the gap created by an inadequate public water system. Policymakers were able to enable, to a large extent, the growth of the pure water industry by designating NAFDAC to guide and regulate drinking water production standards. This is an approach that can be transferred, though with modifications that fit other areas of the informal sector.  
  • Closing the Urban Services Divide: As lockdown stretches across the world, we are only beginning to understand how COVID-19 will affect the urban fabric. The current crisis offers an opportunity to reflect on how Lagos is being planned, managed, and brings concepts such as resilience to the front burner. For a rapidly growing megacity like Lagos, millions of people today lack access to essential services such as housing, water and healthcare, which intensified the challenges of responding effectively to COVID-19. Closing the urban services divide must be a priority going forward especially in informal communities, and this highlights the need for government and urban planners to take advantage of this crisis to plan and build a Lagos that truly works for all.

Moving Forward: An Integrated Approach for Africa 

From whatever standpoint you look at it, there is no doubt that the informal sector, particularly in developing countries is going to be the most impacted in the post COVID-19 economic crisis, and the active population subset in informal communities might fall short of being able to provide the basic standard of living. Studies have indicated that there is a strong correlation between informal employment and poverty. Hence, if critical measures are not put in place, we might begin to experience further increase in the poverty rates across parts of Lagos and by extension, Nigeria. Mirroring the realities in Lagos to other African cities, the experiences will be somewhat similar, necessitating the need for an integrated approach across Africa.

Policy makers in Africa need to recognise the important role the informal sector plays in their economies and begin to take deliberate actions to support and revive this sector during and post COVID-19, learning from experiences in cities like Lagos. Development partners e.g. WHO, United Nations are also critical in this fight for the informal economy and communities. For example, UN-Habitat released their COVID-19 response plan recently with a keen focus on supporting community driven solutions in informal communities. One thing stands sure, a post COVID-19 world will be incomplete without a thriving informal sector.

Ndubuisi Ekekwe To Speak in Rotary Club Ikoyi via Video

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Those country club speeches, from New York City to Cape Town, Lagos to Barcelona, and more, are now zoomed! I will be speaking this week with Rotary Club Ikoyi. A new breakthrough now would be how to keep some of the richest citizens of this continent engaged on their phones and laptops for an hour. You cannot crack jokes as you cannot sense the room via zoom. Nonetheless, it would be a great one!

Headlines & Insights: What to Expect in the Market this week…

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Extension or Relaxation of the Lockdown

Following the joint recommendation of Governors’ Forum and Economic Sustainability Committee, we expect the FG to gradually ease lockdown considering the fact that the economy is currently choking. The possibilities of an increase in social unrest and criminal activities is also a concern.

 

However, relaxation of lockdown may not be a given considering the rate of increase in infections in the last five days and what has happened in the last four weeks since the lockdown commenced on 29th March 2020. We have seen a growth of over 45% from 873 on 22nd April to 1,273 as at 26th April 2020, and growth of over 1,000% since the original lockdown on 29th March 2020 when infections were just 111.


Welcome Back CBN

If the lockdown is relaxed in 24 hours, we expect CBN to lose its ‘hide-and-seek’ game with Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) and finally show face in the office on 28th April 2020. The implication of that is more dollars to the I & E window.

More dollars will not necessarily guarantee the stability of naira but it’s an indication that FPIs may finally have the opportunity to exit the fixed income and equities market.

Equities Market

Over a 13-day trading period, commencing 6th April 2020 the Market has gained over 9%, the last time that happened was in January 2020. The reason for this rare feat during ‘a pandemic’ is because foreign investors are currently trapped in the system with almost no option than to trade.

The return of the CBN with dollars may provide the exit they have been yearning for since March. Depending on how local investors can fill the space of FPIs, we may experience a free fall in ASI.

If your disposition towards risk is averse, if you are not a risk-taker, if you don’t like risk, now may be the time to watch the equities market closely or exit and head to the money market where you can enjoy some stability and capital preservation. If you are a risk seeker, taker or lover, you may want to continue your bargain hunts or exit now and come back in May.

Click on the link https://bit.ly/2XrvIf9 to open a stockbroking/share purchase account and trade within 24 hours.


Money Market Update:

At the current rate of inflation, you need returns that will take you closer to growing your wealth in real terms, we can provide that. Our money market fund is still open and yield is currently over 11.5%, reach out to our team to grow your cash. We are digital, we are working from home, we are online and we are active.

Click to subscribe to our money market fund https://trustbancasset.com/moneymarket/

 

News Headlines:
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