Nigeria in a Dilemma

By

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April 14, 2020

Nigeria is in a state of dilemma. She is currently in a position that placed her between the devil and the deep blue sea. Any direction she takes now spells disaster for her. So she needs to choose the lesser evil; though none of the options seems less disastrous.

The moment it became obvious that restriction of movement order will be enacted to minimize and contain the spread of COVID-19, people became afraid. People knew that the lockdown was the best option but they couldn’t imagine what their lives would be like during the period. They hoped against all odds that the order wouldn’t be put in place. But alas, they were disappointed to find out that there is no running away from a lockdown.

Then people were only afraid of not being able to find daily meals. Those that survive on daily income were the most concerned. The people that could afford to stock up necessary supplies in their houses did so while those that couldn’t, trusted on providence to provide for them. That was the state of the nation when state and federal governments began issuing lockdown orders and started placing security personnel in place to enforce them. Then, the only worries of every average Nigerian was hunger. Today, the worries have surpassed fear of starvation.

The COVID-19 induced lockdown has woken up a lot of sleeping demons. These, in addition to hunger, include inflation, extortion, bullying and armed robbery.

Inflation: The 30th of March, 2020 is a day that marked the peak of inflation in many parts of Nigeria. The prices of goods in the market escalated beyond imagination. For no reason whatsoever, traders increased the prices of essential goods such as food stuffs and toiletries. They knew that people must buy things they will use during the lockdown and decided to use that day to extort buyers of their hard earned money. This hike in prices continued into the lockdown. Right now, the reasons traders give for the price hike is that the lockdown made it difficult and expensive to “import” food stuffs from their producing states.
Extortion: Officers of the Nigerian Police Force, as usual, are using this period to make money. In fact, the traders claimed that policemen are part of the reasons why food stuffs are expensive nowadays. It is said that police mounted roadblocks days before the lockdown commenced and started from that period to extort motorists that want to “cross the border”. Speculation has it that lockdown only works for those that don’t have money to settle the police. However, it is quite unfair that members of NPF should disturb the movement of foodstuffs despite knowing that lockdown should not affect flow of food. Extorting from motorists, especially from traders that bought food ingredients to sell is wrong and should therefore be checked.
Bullying: Several disheartening videos of members of the NPF and the NA bullying people they met on the road have emerged. Some health workers and other people in essential services have narrated their ordeals in the hands of security agents who manhandled them when they, the workers, were on their way to work. These security agents did not bother to verify these people’s given reasons for leaving their homes but rather decided to abuse the power given to them. There are also cases of sick people going to hospitals that were forced to go back home by these security agents. Most of us must have heard of the Warri incident, where a civilian and a soldier lost their lives all in the name of maintaining lockdown order. These attitudes are threats to the maintenance of the lockdown policy.
Robbery: Several cases of harassment, intimidation, extortion, robbery and shoplifting filtered into the news on Saturday, 11th April, 2020. An eye witness of the Abule Egba robbery took to Twitter to narrate how a group of young boys took to the street in broad daylight, shot sporadically, harassed and stole from residents and broke into shops. These people had their field day and later left undisturbed. Some people have linked these robbers to miscreants operating in those areas while some others linked them to people pushed over the edges by lockdown-related hunger. No one can categorically state what caused these young men to go into such an occupation, but what we all are sure of is that in a matter of time, such an act will spread to other parts of the country unless something is done to hold it at bay.

The dilemma Nigeria is facing now is whether the lockdown order should be lifted or if it should be sustained. Lifting the restriction means that COVID-19 will become epidemic in the country and claim as many lives as it could before it becomes contained. But maintaining the restriction means that hunger, inflation, intimidation, extortion, robbery, and many other social vices may go berserk. Put differently, Nigerian government is faced between losing the citizens to death by COVID-19 and losing them to death by the lockdown demons.

The only hope Nigeria has is that it can control the second option while the first one is out of anybody’s control until a vaccine is found. This is just to let the concerned authorities know that they still have a lot of things to do so that the lockdown will not become a nightmare.

Rethinking Covid-19 Lockdowns

By

Orji Obinna

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April 14, 2020

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According to Worldometer, every year, an estimated 290,000 to 650,000 people die globally as a result of complications from seasonal influenza (flu) viruses. The viruses causing flu have been around for thousands of years, and every year different strains appear as a result of slight mutations taking place in them.They are constantly evolving taking forms slightly different from older pre-existing ones.

According to the United States CDC, around 61200 people died as a result of this in the 2018-2019 flu season which runs roughly from November to April in the United States alone. About 42.9 million people were infected between this same period. The flu(COMMON COLD) is caused by over 200 different viruses including the Human Coronavirus.

In all of this, nothing was shut down as a result as life moved on as usual. Of course there is an obvious difference between SARS-COV-2 ,the virus which causes Covid-19 and other Coronaviruses including the ones causing SARS, MERS and the seasonal flu. Nobody is disputing that as the case reproduction number R0 which ranges from 1.5 – 2.5 according to WHO for Covid 19, clearly shows ,whereas common flu is 1.3. Don’t forget that chicken pox has got a case reproduction number of about 10 .Still it is important to consider what exactly we are sacrificing and why for COVID-19.

Counting the Cost

Proponents of the lockdown say that doing so saves a lot of lives. These people are professionals and I have no intention to doubt their observations. Still it is important to run a multivariate analysis on how people are affected across different layers of existence so as to ascertain what exactly is going on and who is really affected.

Consider this for a moment, that COVID-19 has got a 98% survival rate among those tested. Consider also that the majority of those who have the virus are asymptomatic, and as a result never get tested. Factor this in and the survival rate goes up to around 99.5%.

These are not my figures, these are figures from experts from around the world. The significance of this figure is that it helps us to compare how fatal this pandemic is when matched against other life taking incidents or diseases.

Let’s for a moment consider the first death recorded in Nigeria as a result of COVID-19 , a man in his sixties who had cancer and was receiving chemotherapy. He also had chronic diabetes. It’s very difficult to say how much of his demise was as a result of SARS-COV-2 or as a consequence of a combination of factors.

Away from that.Take for instance in Africa, 3000 children die every single day as a result of malaria.

In Nigeria, an average of 12 persons were killed every day as a result of road accidents in 2019 alone according to data from the Federal Road Safety Corps.

So then, should we shut down the country or continent until every single mosquito is killed? or should transportation by road be banned until our roads are safe for humans to ply?

The chances of a Nigerian or by extension an African dying of COVID19 is far lower than the chances of dying from Malaria ,HIV /AIDS or hunger related complications, and is likely to remain so. Research has shown that there is a direct correlation between poverty and malaria deaths. Poverty makes people more vulnerable to a lot of things ranging from Malaria, to Maternal mortality to death by malnutrition to AIDS and a lot of other pitiable things. And an obvious fact is that prolonging the lock down will lead to more poverty and hunger both of which are killers in their own clime.

It would be a very unforgivable mistake for Africa to copy the Chinese/American/European templates in tackling the COVID19 crises for a number of reasons which includes but not limited to the fact that Europe and the rest has got a better social security system and a more effective way of dealing with hunger and that Africa has got a very young population, with a median age of 19.7 years and 60% of the population being aged below 25 years according to the Wikipedia .Then also factor in the fact that the average life expectancy in Africa is far lower than what obtains in the developed nations. All these add up to make Africa Very unlikely to suffer the same complexities the rest of the world has been hit with.

This isn’t my opinion, this is a fact. The chances of any one dying as a result of COVID-19 diminishes as the age reduces.

The figures below are from a Worldometer showing the COVID-19 mortality rate as it relates to age.

(80+ years old)14.8% , (70-79) 8.0%, ( 60-69 years) 3.6% ,(50-59 years) 1.3% , (40-49 years) 0.4% ,(40-49 years) 0.4% ,(30-39 years) 0.2%, (20-29 years) 0.2% ,(10-19 years) 0.2% , (0-9 years) no fatalities.

*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%).

Looking at these figures, and then relating it to the fact that the median African age is 19.7 years and that 60% of the populace is below 25 diminishes further the possible severity of the pandemic in Africa.

Most of the casualties of the lock down induced hunger are going to be children in very poor communities, the same group that has the least likelihood of dying as a result of COVID-19(0% mortality rate between ages 0-9) and these numbers are going to exceed by far any fatalities from COVID-19.

What matters at the moment ?Is it how many lives saved in general or how many from COVID-19?

This is a paradox Africa must solve moving forward.

Should they sacrifice the youth and children who are likely not going to die of COVID-19 to save the old and aged who are more predisposed to it?

Could there be anything worse for Africa than 3000 child malaria deaths daily or the possibility of this figure rising due to hunger?

Hardly!

Recommendations

Since going by available data children (0-9 years) are theoretically safe from COVID-19 complications, it could be advised that they go back to school to be taught by mostly young teachers.
Since young people have between 0.2-0.4% probability of dying from COVID-19 complications, it could be recommended to send them back to work with adequate sanitary measures followed, PPE’s and social distancing techniques, while the elderly are advised to stay back.
People in categories 1 and 2 with any pre-existing health condition should not be included as COVID-19 hardly kills any healthy individual.This does not imply that pockets of deaths have not been recorded amongst healthy people.

Since going by available statistics, women are less likely to be victims than men, a modality should be worked out temporarily to get more of them involved in essential services back to work.
Sanitizers should be available in all public places, and social distancing should be maintained.

In the end it boils down to doing whatever it takes to save more lives as the emphasis should be on numbers.

Follow Me Here On LinkedIn

By

Ndubuisi Ekekwe

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April 14, 2020

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Good People, LinkedIn has provided a great platform to co-learn, co-share and impact professionally on people. If you are reading me and not a FOLLOWER or direct connect, I ask you to click FOLLOW. (You cannot Connect at the moment as I have exceeded the 30k limit, just click FOLLOW). Thank you.

Economy, Finance, Business News Headlines & Insights: 14th April 2020

By

Azeez Lawal

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April 14, 2020

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Oil Market Update:

‘Having been involved in the negotiations, to put it mildly, the number that OPEC+ is looking to cut is 20 Million Barrels a day, not the 10 Million that is generally being reported. If anything near this happens, and the World gets back to business from the Covid 19 …’ President Trump

President Trump’s tweet was corroborated by Saudi Arabia’s energy minister, Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, in an interview with CNBC. Though, what’s widely reported is 9.7 million bpd, there are other agreements and voluntary commitments to cut production in the coming months until it gets to around 20 million bpd.

The twenty million bpd production cut is historic and significant because it’s closer to what commodity experts say is required to sop up excess crude flooding the market, address the destruction of demand caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and position oil prices for stability in the coming months.

The cut is a major boost for oil-producing nations like Nigeria, it will boost our revenue, provide some assurance around our foreign reserves and stability of the Naira. The cut also officially ends the price war between Saudi Arabia and Russia that flooded the world with unneeded crude and amplified the crash in oil prices.

On the flip side, since subsidy has been removed, a sustained increase in oil prices will surely lead to an increase in pump price of fuel in Nigeria…’let’s wait and see’.

Stock Market Update:

Nigeria’s equity market is off to an early gain, currently up by 0.47%, FTSE (UK) – down by 0.38%, DAX (Germany) – up by 1.05%, CAC 40 (France) – up by 0.23% and Nikkei 25 (Japan) – up by 3.13%.

Click on the link https://bit.ly/2XrvIf9 to open a stockbroking/share purchase account and trade within 24 hours.

Money Market Update:

Our money market fund is still open and yield is currently over 11.5%, reach out to our team to grow your cash. We are digital, we are working from home, we are online and we are active. You can also do deposits with us at a starting rate of 10%.

See below for more news headlines.

Headlines:

Debt service to revenue ratio rises to 48%

The revision of the 2020 revenue framework has raised the Federal Government’s debt service to revenue ratio from the initial 29 per cent to 48 per cent. The Executive last Wednesday sent a revised 2020 budget proposal to the National Assembly following a drop in crude oil prices caused by the impact of the coronavirus pandemic. Read more

Crude cuts: Nigeria to earn $10.61bn in eight months

Nigeria may earn about $10.61bn from crude oil sales between May and December this year following latest decision by members and non-members of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries to cut production. Also, the country will earn about $22.74bn from crude oil between January 2021 and April 2022 going by the volume of crude oil curtailment to be implemented by Nigeria during the 16-month period, as agreed by OPEC+. Read more

IMF excludes Nigeria from 25 nations granted debt relief

The International Monetary Fund has granted debt relief to 25 countries, mostly African nations excluding Nigeria. A statement by the Managing Director of the IMF, Kristalina Georgieva, said it would provide $500m in grant-based debt service relief to these countries. Read more

Oil rises amid hopes for quick decline in U.S. shale output

Oil prices rose more than 1% on Tuesday after the main U.S. energy forecasting agency predicted shale output in the world’s biggest crude producer would fall by the most on record in April, adding to cuts from other major producers. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, along with Russia and other producing countries – known as OPEC+ – agreed over Easter to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day (bpd) in May and June, equal to about 10% of global supply before the viral outbreak. Read more

Oil hovers around $31 despite OPEC+ cut deal

The international oil benchmark, Brent crude, wobbled on Monday, despite the historic oil production cut deal sealed by the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies on Sunday. The OPEC, Russia and other countries agreed on Sunday to cut output by 9.7 million barrels per day in May and June, representing about 10 per cent of global supply. Read more

Dollar slips as Chinese trade data brightens mood

The dollar slipped on Tuesday and the Australian dollar led a rally in riskier currencies as China’s trade data painted a less gloomy picture of the coronavirus’ economic fallout than markets had feared. China’s March exports fell 6.6% from a year earlier, compared with a forecast for a 14% drop and imports fell by less than 1%, compared with a 9.5% drop anticipated by economists. Read more

Latest on the spread of the coronavirus around the world

More than 1.88 million people have been reported to be infected by the novel coronavirus globally and 119,168 have died, according to a Reuters tally, as of 0200 GMT on Tuesday. Read more

Trump Says Decision to Restart U.S. Economy to Be Made ‘Shortly’

President Donald Trump asserted in a tweet Monday that the decision to restart the economy was solely his and that such a decision will be made “shortly”. “It is the decision of the President, and for many good reasons” and not that of local officials, Trump tweeted. Read more

Corporate Disclosures:Union Bank Nigeria Plc – Dividend Information for 2019 AFS
Union Bank of Nigeria Plc hereby announce as follows: A Final Dividend of N0.25k for every 50 kobo ordinary share, subject to appropriate withholding tax and approval of shareholders at the next Annual General Meeting will be paid to shareholders whose names appear in the Register of Members as at the close of business 24th April 2020. Read more

Fidelity Bank Plc – Notice of Board Meeting and Closed Period for 2020 Q1 Accounts
Fidelity bank has announced that its board of directors will hold a board meeting on Thursday, 24 2020 to consider and approve the bank’s unaudited financial statement for the first quarter of the 2020 financial year. Read more

President Buhari’s Address to Nigerians – April 13, 2020 (full text)

By

Ndubuisi Ekekwe

-

April 13, 2020

0

Mr. President’s speech. He dropped the key message: this is not a JOKE – “This is not a joke. It is a matter of life and death. Mosques in Makkah and Madina have been closed. The Pope celebrated Mass on an empty St. Peter’s Square. The famous Notre Dame cathedral in Paris held Easter Mass with less than 10 people. India, Italy and France are in complete lockdown. Other countries are in the process of following suit. We cannot be lax.”

The full text below…

ADDRESS BY H.E. MUHAMMADU BUHARI, PRESIDENT OF THE FEDERAL REPUBLIC OF NIGERIA ON THE EXTENSION OF COVID- 19 PANDEMIC LOCKDOWN AT THE STATE HOUSE, ABUJA

MONDAY, 13TH APRIL, 2020

Fellow Nigerians
In my address on Sunday, 29th March, 2020, I asked the residents of Lagos and Ogun States as well as the Federal Capital Territory to stay at home for an initial period of fourteen days starting from Monday, 30th March 2020.
Many State Governments also introduced similar restrictions.
As your democratically elected leaders, we made this very difficult decision knowing fully well it will severely disrupt your livelihoods and bring undue hardship to you, your loved ones and your communities.
However, such sacrifices are needed to limit the spread of COVID-19 in our country. They were necessary to save lives.
Our objective was, and still remains, to contain the spread of the Coronavirus and to provide space, time and resources for an aggressive and collective action.
The level of compliance to the COVID-19 guidelines issued has been generally good across the country. I wish to thank you all most sincerely for the great sacrifice you are making for each other at this critical time.
I will take this opportunity to recognise the massive support from our traditional rulers, the Christian Association of Nigeria (CAN) and the Nigerian Supreme Council for Islamic Affairs (NSCIA) during this pandemic.
I also acknowledge the support and contributions received from public spirited individuals, the business community and our international partners and friends.
I must also thank the media houses, celebrities and other public figures for the great work they are doing in sensitizing our citizens on hygienic practices, social distancing and issues associated with social gatherings.
As a result of the overwhelming support and cooperation received, we were able to achieve a lot during these 14 days of initial lockdown.
We implemented comprehensive public health measures that intensified our case identification, testing, isolation and contact tracing capabilities.
To date, we have identified 92% of all identified contacts while doubling the number of testing laboratories in the country and raising our testing capacity to 1,500 tests per day.
We also trained over 7,000 Healthcare workers on infection prevention and control while deploying NCDC teams to 19 states of the federation.
Lagos and Abuja today have the capacity to admit some 1,000 patients each across several treatment centres.
Many State Governments have also made provisions for isolation wards and treatment centres. We will also build similar centers near our airports and land borders.
Using our resources and those provided through donations, we will adequately equip and man these centres in the coming weeks. Already, health care workers across all the treatment centers have been provided with the personal protective equipment that they need to safely carry out the care they provide.
Our hope and prayers are that we do not have to use all these centres. But we will be ready for all eventualities.
At this point, I must recognise the incredible work being done by our healthcare workers and volunteers across the country especially in frontline areas of Lagos and Ogun States as well as the Federal Capital Territory.
You are our heroes and as a nation, we will forever remain grateful for your sacrifice during this very difficult time. More measures to motivate our health care workers are being introduced which we will announce in the coming weeks.
As a nation, we are on the right track to win the fight against COVID-19.
However, I remain concerned about the increase in number of confirmed cases and deaths being reported across the world and in Nigeria specifically.

23. On 30th March 2020, when we started our lockdown in conforming with medical and scientific advice, the total number of confirmed cases across the world was over 780,000.

Yesterday, the number of confirmed COVID-19 cases globally was over one million, eight hundred and fifty thousand. This figure is more than double in two weeks!
In the last fourteen days alone, over 70,000 people have died due to this disease.
In the same period, we have seen the health system of even the most developed nations being overwhelmed by this virus.
Here in Nigeria, we had 131 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in 12 States on 30th March 2020. We had two fatalities then.
This morning, Nigeria had 323 confirmed cases in twenty States. Unfortunately we now have ten fatalities. Lagos State remains the center and accounts for 54% of the confirmed cases in Nigeria. When combined with the FCT, the two locations represent over 71% of the confirmed cases in Nigeria.
Most of our efforts will continue to focus in these two locations.
Majority of the confirmed cases in Lagos and the FCT are individuals with recent international travel history or those that came into contact with returnees from international trips.
By closing our airports and land borders and putting strict conditions for seaport activities, we have reduced the impact of external factors on our country. However, the increase in the number of States with positive cases is alarming.
The National Centre for Disease Control has informed me that, a large proportion of new infections are now occurring in our communities, through person-to-person contacts. So we must pay attention to the danger of close contact between person to person.
At this point, I will remind all Nigerians to continue to take responsibility for the recommended measures to prevent transmission, including maintaining physical distancing, good personal hygiene and staying at home.
In addition, I have signed the Quarantine Order in this regard and additional regulations to provide clarity in respect of the control measures for the COVID-19 pandemic which will be released soon.
The public health response to COVID-19 is built on our ability to detect, test and admit cases as well as trace all their contacts. While I note some appreciable progress, we can achieve a lot more.
Today, the cessation of movement, physical distancing measures and the prohibition of mass gatherings remain the most efficient and effective way of reducing the transmission of the virus. By sustaining these measures, combined with extensive testing and contact tracing, we can take control and limit the spread of the disease.
Our approach to the virus remains in 2 steps – First, to protect the lives of our fellow Nigerians and residents living here and second, to preserve the livelihoods of workers and business owners.
With this in mind and having carefully considered the briefings and Report from the Presidential Task Force and the various options offered, it has become necessary to extend the current restriction of movement in Lagos and Ogun States as well as the FCT for another 14 days effective from 11:59 pm on Monday, 13th of April, 2020. I am therefore once again asking you all to work with Government in this fight.
This is not a joke. It is a matter of life and death. Mosques in Makkah and Madina have been closed. The Pope celebrated Mass on an empty St. Peter’s Square. The famous Notre Dame cathedral in Paris held Easter Mass with less than 10 people. India, Italy and France are in complete lockdown. Other countries are in the process of following suit. We cannot be lax.
The previously issued guidelines on exempted services shall remain.
This is a difficult decision to take, but I am convinced that this is the right decision. The evidence is clear.
The repercussions of any premature end to the lockdown action are unimaginable.
We must not lose the gains achieved thus far. We must not allow a rapid increase in community transmission. We must endure a little longer.
I will therefore take this opportunity to urge you all to notify the relevant authorities if you or your loved ones develop any symptoms. I will also ask our health care professionals to redouble their efforts to identify all suspected cases, bring them into care and prevent transmission to others.
No country can afford the full impact of a sustained restriction of movement on its economy. I am fully aware of the great difficulties experienced especially by those who earn a daily wage such as traders, day-workers, artisans and manual workers.
For this group, their sustenance depends on their ability to go out. Their livelihoods depend on them mingling with others and about seeking work. But despite these realities we must not change the restrictions.
In the past two weeks, we announced palliative measures such as food distribution, cash transfers and loans repayment waivers to ease the pains of our restrictive policies during this difficult time. These palliatives will be sustained.
I have also directed that the current social register be expanded from 2.6 million households to 3.6 million households in the next two weeks. This means we will support an additional one million homes with our social investment programs. A technical committee is working on this and will submit a report to me by the end of this week.
The Security Agencies have risen to the challenges posed by this unprecedented situation with gallantry and I commend them. I urge them to continue to maintain utmost vigilance, firmness as well as restraint in enforcing the restriction orders while not neglecting statutory security responsibilities.
Fellow Nigerians, follow the instructions on social distancing. The irresponsibility of the few can lead to the death of the many. Your freedom ends where other people’s rights begin.
The response of our State Governors has been particularly impressive, especially in aligning their policies and actions to those of the Federal Government.
In the coming weeks, I want to assure you that the Federal Government, through the Presidential Task Force, will do whatever it takes to support you in this very difficult period. I have no doubt that, by working together and carefully following the rules, we shall get over this pandemic.
I must also thank the Legislative arm of Government for all its support and donations in this very difficult period. This collaboration is critical to the short and long-term success of all the measures that we have instituted in response to the pandemic.
As a result of this pandemic, the world as we know it has changed. The way we interact with each other, conduct our businesses and trade, travel, educate our children and earn our livelihoods will be different.
To ensure our economy adapts to this new reality, I am directing the Ministers of Industry, Trade and Investment, Communication and Digital Economy, Science and Technology, Transportation, Aviation, Interior, Health, Works and Housing, Labour and Employment and Education to jointly develop a comprehensive policy for a “Nigerian economy functioning with COVID-19”.
The Ministers will be supported by the Presidential Economic Advisory Council and Economic Sustainability Committee in executing this mandate.
I am also directing the Minister of Agriculture and Rural Development, the National Security Adviser, the Vice Chairman, National Food Security Council and the Chairman, Presidential Fertiliser Initiative to work with the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 to ensure the impact of this pandemic on our 2020 farming season is minimized.
Finally, I want to thank the members of the Presidential Task Force on COVID-19 for all their hard work so far. Indeed, the patriotism shown in your work is exemplary and highly commendable.
Fellow Nigerians, I have no doubt that by working together and carefully following the rules, we shall get over this pandemic and emerge stronger in the end.
I thank you all for listening and may God bless the Federal Republic of Nigeria.

Nigeria in a Dilemma

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