In the latest turn of events in the Nigerian milk industry, the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) has lifted the ban against milk importation, but restricted the right to six dairy companies only.

In a circular published by the Apex bank on Tuesday, the new authorization was granted only to companies that keyed into the integration initiative of the Bank.

“As part of efforts to increase local production of milk, its derivatives and dairy products, the Central Bank of Nigeria has engaged with some companies in the industry who have keyed into the bank’s backward integration program to enhance their capacity and improve local milk production.

“Accordingly, all authorized dealers are to note that all Forms ‘M’ for the importation of milk and its derivatives shall only be allowed for the following: FrieslandCampina WAMCO Nigeria, Chi Limited, TG Arla Dairy products Limited, Promisador Nigeria Limited, Nestle Nigeria Plc (MSK only) and integrated Dairies Limited.

“For the avoidance of doubt, all established Forms ‘M’ for the importation of milk and its derivatives for companies other than the above for which shipment has not taken place should be cancelled immediately,” the statement from CBN said.

In July last year, CBN added milk to the items restricted from forex access; it was in a bid to boost local production of dairy products. Therefore, the Apex bank urged stakeholders to embrace backward integration to cut the $1.2 billion being spent on milk importation annually. Many were thrown out of business since they couldn’t keep up with the new rules, a few others remained.

It has been about six months since the trial of the backward integration started, and the attempt appears to have failed to live up to its aim. Currently, Nigeria’s milk production stands at about 500,000 metric tonnes per year, which leaves a demand gap of 1.7 million tonnes.

The director, Corporate Communications Department at the CBN, Isaac Okoroafor, said the Apex bank engaged the six companies because they showed interest in the backward integration initiative of the Bank, and have shown their willingness to support it. He said the aim of the Central Bank is to increase milk production to 550,000 at the end of the year.

As the CBN continues to push to curtail the amount of forex going into importation of goods that can be produced in Nigeria, there is a chance that it could be attained. But it will happen at the detriment of the sufficiency of goods and services.

For instance, given the existing demand gap in milk, the possibility of the six selected companies meeting the demand is not guaranteed, and that means paying more for the products due to its scarcity.

Attaining sufficiency in milk production following the 550,000 tonnes per annum projected by CBN will take 34 years. If the exploding population is considered, it may never be attained.

This decision has been criticized by experts who believe it’s more political than economic. In 2019, Dr. Kunle Hamilton, the Chief Executive Officer of Virgin Consulting UK and a Consultant to a dairy multinational said the CBN is using politics to make economic decisions.

“We need to consider that the manufacturers have always supported the decision to backwardly integrate, and that is why our members are exploring local sourcing of raw materials. However, stakeholders have to agree on the right step to take. The effects of such a decision need to be considered to ensure that artificial scarcity does not occur due to the inability to meet local demands.

“There should be the right mix of measures and the right timing. There should be fair hearing from the stakeholders. The CBN should not carry out the action without adequately carrying manufacturers along,” he said.

Stakeholders complain that the deficiencies in dairy productions have more to do with infrastructural decays in the country than it has to do with forex. Unfortunately, the infrastructural challenges that have been obstructing production seem not to be part of the issues the CBN’s backward integration aims to address.

In the end of milk importation ban trial, the whole idea failed to boost local production or to create any opportunity for existing companies to thrive. It glaringly pointed to where the problem lies. So narrowing access to Form “M” to six companies only is believed to be another experiment that its outcome will not be different from the first.

As life pushes you to the brink of the wall, you are forced to innovate. That’s not the complete story though, the truth is that you only have one option, innovate or die. An adage in my local language says “ta ba sun aguntan kan ogiri, a poju da seni”. Literately translated as “when you push a sheep to the wall, it will have no other option than to attack you”.

Now that’s counter-intuitive because a sheep is known as the gentle and meek animal that is perfect at following instructions. But at what point will it so break free from its nature to the extent of attacking shepherded or any other agent? That’s the point where all humans seem to get also before they realize the urgent need to innovate.

There is a fundamental assumption in the adage though, the assumption that the sheep will choose life over death, the assumption that the sheep will choose to innovate instead of stagnating and the assumption that the sheep will rather have more option than one option. The assumption is not unfounded though, the assumption was made because the focus of the adage is not to teach about the sheep but make a point about human nature; we will always choose life over death, innovate than stagnate and more option than one option.

My question though and the puzzling of my mind is that why would we wait to the point of being pushed to the brink before we take this necessary action?

Option in the context of the essay is anything that improves your chances of attaining a set goal.

Knowing one more person in your field of endeavour improves your chances, so does learning a new skill and cultivating a healthy habit. You can extrapolate that list in the light of the definition given.

When do we create options?

I have observed that we tend to create options more when we have less of it. When the proverbial sheep in my illustration was being pushed to the wall, it did nothing, when its options were being stripped away from him, it did nothing, and when it was finally left one option, it sorts to create more for itself.

That’s the very behaviour I have observed in humans. The twist here, however, is that the reserve is the case in our story. A good percentage of us start out in life having close to zero option. You can only go to one kind of university because otherwise would mean, you can’t afford it. You only eat a type of food, you can only have a conversation with a select individual, in fact, only a stratum of the society is available to converse with you. You are kind of boxed.

It is at this point we sort to create options for ourselves. We seek to break out of a given social strata buy educating ourselves, upskilling ourselves, and making important bets that could potentially lead us to break free from our initial conditioning.

It is important that you know that so you can understand what the time is meant for and that you might use it wisely. Another tragedy which I often notice at this point of life is that all too often we seem to contend with the few options that we have created. It operates like a diminishing marginal utility, where getting more means to get less satisfied with more. If you can, avoid that tragedy. Work so much that diminishing marginal utility will not explain your option but increasing marginal utility. Because really, the more options, the better your life tends to be.

How do we create options?

We create options through experimentation.

What do I mean? You see when you start in life with close to zero option, a lot is stacked against you. Basically, the system of the world may not play at your favour until you choose to experiment on things. Experimentation entails bets, what are my chances of nailing this? If I nail it, what awaits me on the other side? Bets are important as you seek to increase your options in life.

I have a mental model through which you can quickly access if a bet is worth it…

“…when a thing has a finite, known and acceptable downside with unknown, infinite and acceptable upside, the best course of action for things like that is to accept it.”

That is the code for taking the best. Think about it this way, you have done your research about someone and you believe he can be the catalyst to a venture you are involved in, and you decide to cold mail her/him (the best), there are two possible outcomes in this scenario:

             Downside: S/he refuses to reply or replies with a no.

             Upside: S/he chooses to reply with a yes.

Now is the downside known? Yes. Is it limited? Yes. Is it acceptable? Absolutely yes.

The other side, is the upside known? Yes, but maybe not fully, s/he can do more than you are asking. Is it acceptable? It’s an upside for your decision, so hell yeah.

Then go ahead and cold mail that person. If the downside happens, fine. But if the upside, you would’ve increased your option in a never thought of way.

This is a pattern that I’ve noticed in all human endeavour. You are not left out.

But as we increase in option, we tend to relax. Law of diminishing marginal utility sets in. Why is that? Because erstwhile we have close to nothing to lose, but now “a lot” at stake. By our nature, this just pulls us back in our shell.

Be deliberate about creating options for yourself and you won’t regret such a decision.

While certificate remains the key to enter a number of industries and companies, the general consensus is that skills and knowledge are the core elements of executing a number of tasks for personal and societal growth. From the south to west and east to the north of the world, skills and knowledge gap remain debatable among the stakeholders in the labour sector. For instance, there is a wide skills and knowledge in the area of lean and offsite construction between Nigeria and the United Kingdom.

In Nigeria, the shortage of technical skills and knowledge is impacting the built environment that comprises the real estate, construction, material manufacturing among other industries. This has been cited by experts as one of the reasons impeding the effective realisation of the Nigerian Content Act 2010.

The continuous impacts of the skills and knowledge deficit have led to the formulation and execution of a number of strategic plans by the government and private sector, emphasizing the need for a paradigm shift in approach to skills and knowledge development in Nigeria. This is imperative as Nigeria enters the first year of the next three decades, expected to spend $3 trillion to construct and maintain infrastructure effectively.

As companies in various industries and segments in the Nigerian economy continue their strategic retreats in preparation for the year 2020, information from the Chief Executive Officer of Alpha Mead Group, Engineer Femi Akintunde indicates that the company is working on an e-Learning platform that would make teaching and learning of various Facilities Management courses in the industry easier.

Adding to the discourse, Olusesan Ogunyooye, Alpha Mead’s Head of Marketing and Communications, says “Like you will see in our communications, the talent Outlook seeks to appraise the current human capacity in the FM market in Nigeria viz a viz the required capacity required to drive the profession to relevance in the face of growing importance of FM in business performance.” Mr Ogunyooye made the submission in an interview with our analyst ahead of the company’s Facilities Management Talent Market Outlook discussion slated for February 13, 2020.

Knight Nigeria is another company in the built environment, making frantic efforts towards skills and knowledge gap closing in Nigeria. The company is proposing Real Estate Academy with the special focus on training and retraining young surveyors and valuers to ensure they imbibe the professionalism culture, the Estate Surveying, and Valuation practice is known for.

Global Property and Facilities Management International (GPFI) is on the race with “The Tech E-SIP Programme. According to the Chief Executive Officer, Dr Kola Balogun, the programme is one of the company’s strategic responses to creating a maintenance economy rather than just training technical skills manpower.

“It is designed to develop highly skilled technical manpower, empower them with social and business skills, empower them with resources to start a business of their own – tools, equipment, van, connect and hand-hold them to business as they commence their journey to entrepreneurship, Support them for the first 2 to 5 years of their business life. We are talking to Bank of Industry, to finance the Van and tools for them,” the CEO said in a recent interview with a local newspaper.

As these companies pursue the race, our analyst observes a need for the prioritisation of aspirational mission stressed by Professor Ndubuisi Ekekwe.  The young professionals and prospective ones, who are expected to be part of programmes for each initiative, should be informed of the significance of aspiring for greatness and being part of the journey of bridging the skills and knowledge gap in the built environment.