The rise of increasingly personal and personalised media interaction fueled by technology and evolving customer behaviour is gaining momentum. Consumers are using an array of connected devices to organise, curate and discover their own unique worlds of media. In response, companies are designing their offerings to revolve around personal preferences, using data and usage patterns to pitch their products not at audiences of billions, but separately at billions of individuals. These are some of the highlights from PwC’s 10^th annual edition of the Entertainment & Media Outlook: 2019-2023 – An African perspective released today.

These profound shifts are taking place against a background of ongoing global growth in entertainment and media (E&M) revenues. By 2023 total E&M revenue in South Africa is expected to reach R170.5 billion, up from R128.9 billion in 2018. Consumer spend on Internet access is a major contributor to growth, accounting for 61% of the overall rise in E&M revenue. Total Internet access is forecast to increase at an 8.2% CAGR over the forecast period and reach R77.7 billion in 2023.

Vicki Myburgh, Entertainment and Media leader for PwC (www.PwC.com) Southern Africa, says:

“This year, The Outlook looks at the industry through the eyes of the consumer – the central theme of this growing media is personal and increasingly digital. There is an increasing shift to personalised experiences all around us in the fast-changing human behaviours involving E&M.

“Consumers around the world want to exert greater control over how they experience and enjoy media content. They are managing their own media consumption by way of smartphones and an expanding array of devices, by curating their own personal selection of channels via over-the-top (OTT) services and by bringing more digital media content into their lives via smart homes and connected cars.”

The Outlook is a comprehensive source of analyses and five-year forecasts of consumer and advertising spending across five countries (South Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, Ghana and Tanzania) and 14 segments: Internet, data consumption, television, cinema, video games, e-sports, virtual reality, newspaper publishing, magazine publishing, book publishing, business-to-business, music, out-of-home (OOH) and radio.

Annual revenue growth continues in the E&M industry

Although Internet access’ growth in the share of overall E&M revenue will reduce by 2023, its 46% share of the total in that year will exceed the global average of 33%, indicating that many South African consumers find access alone provides sufficiently compelling and free entertainment experiences.

Charles Stuart, Entertainment and Media Partner, PwC South Africa adds:

“The advent of 5G networks will also impact the entire technology, media and telecommunications value chain over the next decade. 5G will impact virtually every industry, but E&M companies will be among the earliest to incorporate 5G into their offerings and business models. It will also enhance the customer experience further and accelerate growth for many subsectors within the E&M industry, from video games to high-definition video streaming of sporting events.”

The growing segments of VR, AR and mixed reality (MR) will also accelerate as a result of 5G. The potential use cases from this mobile revolution will be seized by the most agile and innovative E&M companies to create new revenue streams stretching into, and fundamentally changing the future.

South African consumer revenue is set for a 6.4% CAGR between 2018 and 2023, increasing from R99.4 billion to R135.6 billion. Although print-exposed segments are proving a drag on growth, there are many pockets of positivity here, with gaming, video and music revenue all performing strongly. Although Internet revenue takes a major proportion of overall revenue, it is positive to note that three other sectors – video games, e-sports and virtual reality – have stronger CAGRs than Internet to 2023. Music and podcasts are also other good sources for consumer revenue, as is television.

Advertising revenue in South Africa rose by 2.8% year-on-year in 2018, reaching a total of R29.5 billion. Further reasonably consistent rises at a CAGR of 3.4% will see the total reach R34.9 billion in 2023. South Africa enjoyed 24.2% year-on-year growth in 2018 in total Internet advertising revenue. Whereas globally Internet advertising has already become the biggest advertising medium by revenue, in South Africa it still trails behind TV advertising. International evidence, however, suggests that Internet advertising will continue to catch up rapidly. Over the forecast period, its revenue will increase at 12.4% CAGR, doubling to R8.7 billion by 2023. This fast growth will see Internet advertising overtake TV advertising in 2022.

Differences in growth rates at the segment levels

Looking at specific E&M segments, the video games market in South Africa will continue to see growth over the next five years, with total revenue rising from R3.5 billion in 2018 to R5.4 billion in 2023. Social/casual gaming represented 56.6% of total video games revenue in 2018 and is set to increase significantly to 68.4% in 2023.

Digital music-streaming providers continue to gain traction among consumers. Consumers have an array of music-streaming providers to choose from. Digital music streaming revenue reached R325 million in 2018, up almost 57% year on year. Streaming revenue is set to increase at a 20.1% CAGR to total R815 million in 2023.

South Africa continues to be the largest TV market on the African continent. Despite a challenging macroeconomic environment and political uncertainty in recent years, the TV industry has shown growth and will expand at 3.9% CAGR to R40.5 billion in 2023. TV advertising will grow at 1.8% CAGR but will account for a smaller proportion of the market in 2023.

Virtual reality (VR) remains a niche category, but the industry is slowly overcoming certain challenges such as content availability, comfort, compatibility and affordability. This sector continues to attract significant investment from major media and technology companies that are eager to seize a share of this fast-growing market.

E-sports’ popularity in South Africa is indisputable. Total e-sports revenue is forecast to reach R138 million in 2023, a 24.7% CAGR rise from the R46 million recorded in 2018.

Radio continues to have a solid listener base in South Africa with 47% of listeners tuning in for more than 20 hours in a given week. All being well over the next five years, total radio revenue has the potential to edge towards the R5.0 billion-mark, totaling R4.8 billion in 2023.

The print-exposed newspapers, books and consumer magazines segments have the worst forecasts through to 2023, with revenues projected to suffer declining or constrained CAGRs of -2.3%, 0.3% and 1.1% respectively

Nigeria

In Nigeria, E&M revenue is set to rise at 19.3% CAGR to reach US$10.8 billion in 2023 from US$4.5 billion in 2018. Nigeria’s E&M revenue is dominated by Internet access in 2018, and the figure will rise to 81% in five years’ time. Although the Internet dominates much of the revenue there is still room for improvement in service. Outside of Internet access, TV and video will push towards US$1 billion in revenue by 2023 after adding US$172 million over the five years.

Kenya

Kenya’s E&M market is set to see growth at 10.3% CAGR over the next five years, reaching nearly US$3.0 billion in 2023. In 2018 the market rose by 13% year-on-year to reach US$1.8 billion. Internet access is integral to this revenue and growth, but not quite to the extent that it is in Nigeria. TV and video are also major contributors to overall revenue, responsible for 17% of Kenya’s total in 2018.

Ghana

Ghana’s E&M industry is set for the fastest growth of any of the countries considered in the Outlook, forecast to rise at a 19.8% CAGR to reach nearly US$3 billion by 2023. This comes after the country’s E&M market rose 36.3% year-on-year in 2018, to reach US$1.2 billion. TV and video are the largest contributors in terms of nonaccess revenue. Over two-thirds of Ghana’s TV industry is attributable to advertising revenue, with the subscription TV market limited and struggling for growth.

Tanzania

Tanzania’s total E&M revenue rose 17.2% year-on-year in 2018, reaching US$598 million. A CAGR of 18.3% will see the market stand at US$1.4 billion by 2023.

Between them, the five countries considered in the Outlook , will add US$13.1 billion in revenue over the next five years, a CAGR of 11.9%. This is indicative of the still-strong capacity for organic growth, across the countries with many millions of consumers seeing improvements in their discretionary incomes over the next five years that will enable them to enjoy E&M experiences.

“The breakneck pace of technological progress is the catalyst for growth, as Internet access revenue rises drive overall revenue forward. But away from this, trends and norms differ greatly by country, with markets firmly resisting easy characterisation.

“All of this means that companies that want to position themselves for a successful future will have to focus intently on consumers, innovate and experiment continually and be prepared to make significant investments,” Myburgh concludes.

Document: Consumer demand for personalisation drives revenue growth in Africa’s Entertainment & Media industry – PwC’s Africa Outlook

Source: press release

Google is considering making changes to its political ad policy. Recent events have made Silicon Valley search engine giants a center of attraction to the authorities. For the past 18 months, Google has pocketed over $120 million in revenue from political ads across its platforms. But that seems like it’s about to be changed.

Not quite long ago, Twitter announced it’s banning all political ads on its platform contrary to Facebook’s decision to allow it. Facebook has been taking the heat from U.S. lawmakers for selling political ads with lies and misinformation. The social media giants have been called on to refrain from offering its platform as a propaganda sanctuary to deceitful politicians.

But in a defiant response, the CEO of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, said the company will continue to serve political ads as it perceived banning it as a move against free speech.

Many companies in Silicon Valley have been on the watch list of regulators for irregularities, and recently, Google and Facebook have been on the top list. In a bid to curtail the heat, Google has been reported to be weighing in on changing its political ad policy, according to the Wall Street Journal.

Although it’s not clear exactly what the changes will be, employees are hoping to be briefed as soon as possible. The report said some Google employees are speculating the changes could be related to what type of audience targeting the company allows ad buyers to place.

Given that all Google’s advertising policies are uniform across all its platforms, it is difficult to ascertain if the company is introducing a new policy. However, a Google Spokesperson said that whatever change there would be, would reflect in all its platforms.

Last month, Google ran a political ad that contained controversial claims about Democratic presidential aspirant, Joe Biden. The ad was served by the Trump’s administration and has unsubstantiated claim that Biden played a role in the ouster of Ukraine’s prosecutor.

The proliferation of digital misinformation has become worrisome to the U.S. lawmakers, prompting a series of debates and hearings with responsible companies. With the 2020 election getting close, the concern that politicians will capitalize on free speech to buy misleading ads on digital platforms is increasing. Digital ads selling companies are expected to be responsive to calls to tame the tide of lies being promoted by politicians.

Twitter’s decision to ban political ads appears now to be a benchmark to judge the rest. And Google is showing signs that it is willing to bend the rules to appease the clamor. This is not the first time Google is changing its policy due to complaints.

In June, Google changed its advertising policy after facing scrutiny for giving out $120 000 in free ads to an anti-abortion group, Obria. The Guardian reported that the group ran a misleading ad to deter women from doing away with pregnancies. The Obria Group ran an ad that suggests it provides abortion services at its medical clinics, but then urged women to refrain from terminating pregnancies.

The U.S. Congress didn’t find it funny. In a letter addressed to Google CEO, Sundar Pichai and cosigned by Suzanne Bonamici, a Democratic congresswoman from Oregon, Carolyn Maloney, a senior Democratic from New York, called the development “appalling,” expressing her disappointment that Google could provide funding for misinformation.

“Google should in no way be subsidizing any misinformation campaigns, especially campaigns designed to deceive women about their reproductive care options,” she said.

In response, Google announced that it’s changing its ad policy starting in June; any advertiser who wants to run ads using keyword related to getting an abortion will first need to be certified as an advertiser that either provides abortion or does not provide abortions.

And to get certified, advertisers must submit an application where they self-declare if they provide abortions or not. The application will require some basic information about your organization. Once your submitted information is reviewed and approved, you will get a certification.

Google appears to have a moral burden to stand up against misinformation on its platforms since it is against its policy. Its policy on misrepresentation says:

“We don’t want users to feel misled by ads, so we strive to ensure ads are clear and honest, and provide the information that users need to make informed decisions. We don’t allow ads or destinations that intend to deceive users by excluding relevant information or giving misleading information about products, services, or businesses.”

Political ads containing misinformation have become a challenge to this policy and questions Google’s standard. It is expected that Google may introduce a new rule similar to the abortion policy to curb the rise of misleading political ads across its platforms.

Some years ago, Charles Oputa, aka Charly Boy (Area Fada), said that poor people give birth to more children than their rich counterparts because while the poor channel all their energy to sex, the rich channel theirs to making more money. This assertion earned him a lot of negative reactions from people. Though I found it hilarious, I still believed he made a lot of sense. From that moment, I started paying closer attention to his insinuation and found out that he wasn’t far from the truth. Today, Area Fada has been proved right.

The 2018 Nigerian Demographic and Health Survey, conducted by the National Population Commission, in conjunction with the Federal Ministry of Health, Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, WHO, United States Agency for International Development, Global Fund and UNFPA, has proved Charly Boy right in his insight into one of the major causes of population growth. This survey has shown that the birth rate of the rich and the well educated, as well as that of those in urban areas, is lower than that of their counterparts on the other end.

The survey states, “Fertility varies by residence and state. Women in rural areas have an average of 5.9 children compared to 4.5 children among urban women. By state, fertility ranges from 3.4 children per woman in Lagos to 7.3 children per woman in Katsina.” It further states, “Fertility also varies with education and household wealth. Women with no education have twice as many children as women with more than secondary education. Fertility decreases as the wealth of the respondent’s household increases.”

According to this survey, Lagos State has the lowest birth rate at 3.4 children per woman, followed by Akwa Ibom State at 3.6 children per woman, and then Cross River State at 3.7 births per woman. The states with high birth rates include Katsina State (7.3), Bauchi (7.2) and Jigawa (7.1). It also pointed out that women living in the poorest households have birth rate of 6.7 children per woman while those in the wealthiest homes have an average of 3.8 births per woman.

The good news supplied by this survey so far is that fertility has decreased from 6.0 children per woman in 1990 to 5.3 currently. This is a sign that the campaigns towards control of population growth may be taking effect. But then, more still needs to be done.

To manage the growth of population, attention needs to be paid to the NDHS analysis of birth rate without bias. It will be useless leaving the areas where focus should be on and start chasing shadows in the wrong places. There is a need to find out the major causes of higher birth rates in some places and among a certain class of people.

Looking at the results of this survey, it is clear that many factors contribute to population explosion in Nigeria. The summary of all those factors are career, cost of living, formal education, access to information and societal influence. To make this clearer, I’ll bring up the issues raised in the survey and try to connect them with these factors I mentioned above.

Birth Rate of the Urban and Rural Women: The first time I read that report, I asked myself why women in the rural areas, with limited access to proper healthcare, could have more births than the women in the urban area. Some people may assume that this has to do with women in the rural areas being ‘stronger’ than the ones in the urban areas (I’ve heard that a lot).

But, if you look at it critically, you will agree with me that women in the urban areas prefer to have a fewer number of children because they have careers to pursue. It is not to say that women in the rural areas don’t have careers, but theirs aren’t as stringent as that of the women in urban areas. Besides, women in rural areas can go to their places of work or businesses with their young ones, which is hard to witness in urban areas. For instance, if you go to markets and offices in rural areas, you will notice that women spread mats and make-shift beds or playpens beside them to keep their babies. Things like this are hardly seen in urban areas, even in the market. Most urban women are forced to leave their babies at home with nannies or in crèche even when they are barely 3 months old. This discourages them from having many children.

Another thing to consider here is the cost of living. It is cheaper to raise a child in the rural area than in the urban area – think of rent, school fees, medicals, feeding, and so many other bills paid only by people in urban areas. Of course, no one needs to tell these people to have the number of children they can afford to take care of.

Then, women in urban areas have more access to information than those in the rural areas. For instance, urban women know more about birth control and gender-selection than their counterparts in the rural areas. And of course, most urban women are well educated, unlike those in the rural areas that usually stop at secondary school.

Coming to societal influence factor, women in urban areas are not comfortable when they have so many children. Even medical practitioners discourage the birth of more than three children. In most cases, those that have up to four or five will be fast to tell you that they intended stopping at the third one but then, ‘mistake’ happened. This is not what is obtainable in the rural areas, where women are encouraged to continue giving birth until ‘children finish in their womb.’

Variation Based on States: There is no need stating that most women in Lagos are working mothers that have careers to build. This is contrary to most women in Katsina, who are housewives that are not allowed to come out from their husbands’ compounds during the daytime. Also, the flow of information on birth control and gender selection are freer in Lagos than in Katsina – actually the Hausas don’t seem to be much interested in the gender of their children as Igbos do. Girl child education is also encouraged in Lagos than in Katsina. For cost of living, I believe we know that things are cheaper in Northern Nigeria than in any other part (except for FCT).

Variation Based on Income: Charly Boy insinuated that the rich have no time to worry about sex because they have board meetings to attend, business plans to arrange, meetings with partners and so many others. All these, he said, cannot be seen among the poor and so they have ample time to make babies. This assertion may look exaggerated but it still holds water.

In addition to Charles Oputa’s opinion, I’ll say that most rich homes also have career women as mothers and wives. This means that they will also plan to have the number of children that will allow them to grow and develop in their careers.

Also, most women from rich homes are well educated and well informed. They easily get access to all the information they need, including medical ones. This means that they know all the safe and effective birth control methods.

As for cost of living, the richer a person is, the higher his standard of living. For example, a rich person will send his children to expensive schools, stay in expensive apartments, buy expensive cars and live an expensive lifestyle. In other words, he will prefer to have the number of children that will allow him to maintain his status quo.

The point I’m trying to make here is that there is little or no need carrying out much birth and population control awareness campaigns in urban areas when the people that need it most are in the rural areas. Also, more attention should be channelled towards those states that have the highest birth rate. There is no need for interested bodies to go to places like Lagos and Akwa Ibom states to talk to women about having the number of children they can train because they seem to already know that. Let all eyes turn towards the northern part of the country because that is where the explosion seems to be coming from.

As for poverty-induced increase in birth rate, I believe the best way to handle it is by adopting tactful policies that will encourage job creations.