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The Buhari’s Rice Experiment

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Few weeks ago, the Nigerian government closed the nation’s borders with Niger  Republic and Benin Republic. From all angles, you can make noise that the border closure may be violating the spirit of AfCFTA, the trade agreement, designed to bring commerce and industry closer in Africa. But Nigeria has a game plan: check rice smuggling into Nigeria.

Do not blame me – I tend to pick unstructured data including paying attention to the price or rice and availability of rice. In Umuahia, Abia State, this week, the price of (foreign) rice is hitting N18,000 per bag if you can find one. 

But besides the price and the supply, these are things I pick from this policy:

  • Nigeria is not producing enough rice that can meet demand. This contradicts all the statements from Audu Ogbeh, the former minister of agriculture, who boasted last year that Nigeria has attained parity on internal supply and demand.
  • Smuggling of rice is massive. Official data shows that rice is not banned in Nigeria even though the central bank is not supporting its importation with special exchange rate. Yet, by closing the Niger and Benin Republic borders, scarcity has been created. The implication is that most of the rice consumed in Nigeria are smuggled. 
  • Benin Republic and Niger Republic do not eat a lot of rice. Apparently, the mind-blowing imports into these nations are destined for Nigerian family tables. With the borders closed, I expect drops on the volume of rice imports into these nations, in coming weeks.
  • This scarcity can equilibrate in 4-8 weeks (time it could take ships from Asia to Nigeria) as importers begin using Nigerian ports over Nigerien and Benin Republic ports.

Nigeria should sustain this policy but make sure there is a faster clearance for imported rice via the opened ports so that supply can get into the country. This is also the time banks should help their customers to ensure they are using ports which are opened in Nigeria for quick delivery so that supply-demand will normalize.

We need this type of experiment. My suggestion next time will be for government to educate importers and customs to ensure when supply-demand disequilibrium like this happens, immediate actions can be taken to normalize things. It is purely evident that local production cannot do that in the short-run, so a Plan B must be in existence.

The Mara’s Phone Manufacturing Playbook in Rwanda

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Since my article in the Harvard Business Review where I postulated that African leaders should forget following China’s playbook, on industrialization, I have received an unusual level of feedback. My point remains that AI (artificial intelligence) will disintermediate the low level manufacturing jobs which made China attractive to North America and Europe, and Africa cannot count on those jobs as wages rise in China, because AI and robots will do those jobs in North America and Europe, removing any need for them to be outsourced.

Interestingly, whenever factories open in the continent, people send links, asking for my comments. Today, I received one from a business school dean in Kenya who wants my perspectives as Mara Group sets up a smartphone factory in Rwanda.

First, congratulations to Mara. The challenge though is that manufacturing electronics in Africa would be severely challenging since the supporting industries do not exist. And in a sector that rides on volume for better unit economics, Mara has to swim huge waters. Typically, people assemble to win tax benefits but here Mara is going into real “manufacturing” as it noted in the announcement. They are brave because as an electronics man, there is a drumbeat they are hearing which many of us are unable to pick the decibels.

Rwanda’s Mara Group launched two smartphones on Monday, describing them as the first “Made in Africa” models and giving a boost to the country’s ambitions to become a regional technology hub.

The Mara X and Mara Z will use Google’s Android operating system and cost 175,750 Rwandan francs ($190) and 120,250 Rwandan francs ($130) respectively.

They will compete with Samsung, whose cheapest smartphone costs 50,000 Rwandan francs ($54), and non-branded phones at 35,000 Rwandan francs ($37). Mara Group CEO Ashish Thakkar said it was targeting customers willing to pay more for quality.

“This is the first smartphone manufacturer in Africa,” Thakkar told Reuters after touring the company alongside Rwanda’s President Paul Kagame.

To execute this playbook, Mara will become a chemical company, a mechanical company, an electronics company, and so on. In other words, it has to do many things by itself since Rwanda does not have the feeder companies that can provide those services yet, unlike say in China, where some of those auxiliary could be outsourced. Of course, the presence of Mara could stimulate the arrival of those companies in the economy, creating a virtuous circle.

But it has to be super-lucky as no company in Africa (excluding South Africa) has ever executed that playbook yet, from Zinox to Omatek, using Nigerian companies as case studies. To import chemicals, parts and packaging materials separately will always cost more than importing finished products or semi-finished products.

Then, there are other players like TECNO, Oppo and Samsung which remain as competitors in Africa. To win, Mara needs to have huge volume because a firm that produces 5,000,000 units will have a natural advantage over another that could make say 500,000 due to economies of scale which work in electronics. As volume increases, costs of parts and production drop.

The Mara strategy is confusing, to me, because its products are already more expensive than some TECNO brands; the most affordable brand of TECNO goes for about $70 in some African markets but Mara is priced at $130 for the cheapest. Had Mara used the low cost strategy, I would have concluded it was moving with a double play strategy: give affordable phones to unlock a service business in future, and through the services make money. But that is not the playbook here.

To the dean’s question, AI and robots have not taken over making phones. So, nothing has changed therein. On Mara, we congratulate it and will be watching this playbook.

Unity is the KEY to Nigeria’s Development

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You could live for 25 years in the northern part of the country and still be regarded as a stranger. Tribalism has eaten deep into our country and brainwashed all the citizens.

Everyone blames one tribe for any mishap. If there are bombing and killing of people, everyone accuses the Hausa. If Nigerians are caught overseas for smuggling of drugs or illegal papers, everyone accuses the Igbos. If a woman is caught in infidelity, she must be Yoruba.

That’s the sad state of the nation. Everyone is guilty of the blame game. I could remember when I was dating a Yoruba lady, the parents told her to leave me because I am Igbo. You’ll be surprised at the reason why she was advised to leave me. They had the belief that Igbo people use their wives for money rituals and they also eat human beings.

There was a point, I stopped telling people where I come from. Thank God, I have a Yoruba accent. For how long do we continue to live like this? A Yoruba man can’t live in the North or East. He’s scared of being killed during tribal conflicts. An Igbo man will decline to work in the North because he believes he would be the first target during conflicts.

I’ve never been to the North but what I hear from the people living in the South and East say about northerners is really discouraging. If I tend to believe it, I will never go there. They made it look like you’ll be killed immediately you step your feet into that place. Same with other tribes too.

No nation will develop with citizens of this mindset. Everyone needs to feel comfortable and welcomed for the growth and development of the nation.

“We may have different religions, different languages, different coloured skin, but we all belong to one human race.” Kofi Annan

I brainstormed with Lazarus Victoria and definitely agree that – only unity can see us through in this country.

Extracted from her thoughts, ”As I sat down to take my dinner this evening, I took some moments to consider the number of people around the world who had contributed to my evening meal. From the farmers who worked tirelessly on the field all day, cultivating and harvesting, down to the workers at the Rice Mill processing and packaging the food, to the truck drivers and distributors across the country who travel on the road every day and night to ensure the food gets to every citizen of the country. Without these people, my plate of rice would not have been filled with food.”

”Let’s take another quick glance at the shirts, skirts, wristwatches, bags and all, different people have worked together to make it happen. This shows that we are dependent on each other.

Our different phones and laptops are also another reminder. The various technology companies in charge of the production and the service providers trying to keep up with our demands, all revealed how some things we usually think are the product of our strengths are not.”

No wonder, a single forest could destroy thousands of other forests even though they are miles away from our destinations and which could affect the very air we breathe in.

We might be different in our way of life, languages, thoughts and beliefs, yet we are all a product of the same root. Unity brings us together as one.

Until we start seeing each other as one irrespective of the colour or tribe, we will always remain in a spot.

Unity makes everyone sees President Buhari as our President and not the Hausa President. I’m surprised people are only interested in voting for a candidate from their tribe.

But does it really matter?

A house divided cannot stand. From the small bundle of sticks tied together comes the power and strength of a united force.

The broom is something that usually piqued my interest. No matter how dirty the environment is, get a good broom and watch your compound becomes impeccably clean. Despite being a lifeless piece of sticks, the power of togetherness made it an effective tool for cleanliness.

The togetherness of this bundle also made it a very difficult task to sit and start snapping each stick one by one. This actually gave credence to the fact that it is easy to win a war against a lone man, but to defeat a force united in strength would require a second thought.

The unity of the broomsticks is a very special one. I see it as a kind that shifts focus from unity based on tolerance to one that is solidified in understanding that our differences paved the way for our uniqueness and strength.

Let’s assume the human race, country by country imbibed the power of this kind of unity and worked together as a whole, what do you think would be the result?

Nigeria must come together as one. Unity is the key to winning.

You Want To Succeed In Life? Choose Your Friends Wisely

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Are you an undergraduate? Or even a graduate trying to find a path for yourself in life? You are an early career man or woman and you want to be successful in your pursuits? Please heed this advice! Choose your friends wisely.

If you want to succeed, deliberately choose your friends! The topic and content of your discussions would show how far you can go with your dream.

What do you talk about with friends and peers? Music? Movies? Fashion? Drinks? Drugs? Or girls? If anyone of these mainly and consistently headline your talks, except you receive God’s grace, you may never reach your dream.

Please, I am speaking from experience.

Oyee WowAbility is my friend. We met while the two of us just left secondary school. We trekked together to the State Library to read for our exams. We woke up at night to read and revise. We broke the jinx of West African Senior School Certificate together. We read together. We prepared for the university entrance examination together. His stint at the Federal Polytechnic Ede made me discover that I was born to teach as I facilitated tutorial classes then at the polytechnic as an undergraduate. He is a top banker in Lagos today. I am a university teacher.

As an undergraduate, I chose my friends wisely. People I associated with added value to me. For instance, I first learnt to type on Kola Tubosun ‘s computer in Mellamby Hall. I typeset my first degree project myself. Today, he is a top Google guy. And I am a teacher.

It was Morooph O. A. Babaranti that introduced me to the internet. He took me to Agbowo Shopping Complex then to browse. I was fascinated by the colourful images and the possibilities on the world wide web. I have captured a lot more value on the internet since 2002! He is in Canada and here I am in Nigeria. Both of us doing well.

Salaudeen Kamoru has been a friend since undergraduate days. We became closer after our graduation from the premier university. We have been together since then exchanging values with ourselves. I concluded my Master’s degree dissertation in his three bedroom flat in Ibadan in 2011. I submitted his application alongside my own for the Fountain University job openings which the two of us eventually got in 2013. I broke the news of his employment to him. We have written papers and attended conferences together as communication/media researchers. We got inducted into the Nigerian Institute of Public Relations together the same day, same year. So much the two us have gained from the friendship. Both of us are university teachers.

Mutiu Iyanda is my friend. My good friend. He is a communication researcher and data scientist. From Positive Campaign Initiative, Nigeria to Academic-Applied Research Co-Creation Hub, the two of us have been involved. He gave me a clarity I do not find elsewhere when it comes to doing research that break the barriers of disconnection between the town and the gown. We have also published research together. It is a value laden friendship. And both of us enjoy our working relationship.

In conclusion, please pick your friends carefully. A lot of the times, your interactions with them make or mar your future. Whether your dream is to conquer the world or break records, you need friends who would help enable that.

Whatever it is you think you want to be in life, please choose resourceful, serious minded and forward looking people to associate with. Show me your friends….. I thank all my friends who have contributed immensely to my growth and progress. Whether as an adult or adolescent, your choice of friends matter.

But, as I always argue, that you choose good and resourceful friends does not mean you would end up ruling your world, but if you do not choose carefully, you may have to face the consequences. For God is the source of all success.

How Not to Start a Revolution

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For many days we looked to the sky for a sign but there was none. Not even a soot descended. We despaired. We talked about it in groups, at meal time, on the trees, and in our dreams. It was the hunting season again but the military authority would not set fire to the bush. The Harmattan had dessicated the Sudanian Savanna grass that we could hear the hissing dry winds and the chattering of the tinder bush saying, “Do it!”

One fateful morning, our conspiracy gathered the right momentum, and in a gang of three comprising my elder brother, Ezra, our friend, and I, we revolted. Our mom was in the kitchen so we could not pick the match box. We went to Ezra’s place to get his since he was the only one at home. Then in one accord under the leadership of my brother, we crossed the road and advanced a few metres into the bush being careful not to be seen by neighbours. Squatting and well concealed by the tall grasses, my brother struck a few sticks and before he could touch a grass, the wind blew it out. He passed it to Ezra, his efforts were futile too. With only a stick left, I was delegated the responsibility.

I only had to strike once and the bush was on fire. I have the midas touch. With excitement we stood a few steps back watching how the fire spreads. In seconds, our cheer turned to fear. Immediately, we plucked fresh branches from the nearest tree and laboriously tried to quench it. Oblivious to us, we had flung flames behind us that had snowballed into a conflagration. Our attention was aroused by the heat and bellowing voice of the burning bush that blew us from behind. We turned around and beheld the monstrous flame and were exceedingly frightened and took to flight in different directions like bush rats smocked out of hiding.

With my left hand clutching my loosed shorts and bear-footed, I ran with all my might. I could see neighbours obliquely moving pass me like objects relative to my motion. With the swiftness and manoeuvring of a swallow, I dashed into the house, passed my mom and a guest chatting in the living room, straight to the bedroom and under the bed. While hiding, I could only hear the palpitations of my heart and the sirens from outside. In a little while, I heard voices and loud footsteps in the house; I turned to my left and saw black boots standing by the side of the bed.

I was marched to the blue painted Land Rover after being dragged out of my hiding place. The fire department battled to extinguish the fire under the watchful eyes of the crowd who shifted their gaze at me. I was put in the rear of the vehicle where my co-conspirators were already seated. I wondered where they were picked from till today. No one uttered a word as we were driven to the headquarters. Our minds were busy with the possible consequences of our act. Our dad was far away in Liberia keeping the peace brokered by the Economic Community of West African States Monitoring Group, ECOMOG, the multilateral armed force established by the Economic Community of West Africa, ECOWAS.

When we arrived at the headquarters, we were made to sit on a bench suspended across stones under a big canopied tree behind the guardroom. The RSM, Regimental Sergeant Major, and two subordinate soldiers stood before us. I remember him vividly. He was over six foot tall, had three tribal marks on each side of his cheeks like scars inflicted by a beast. His moustache resembles a cat’s whiskers. 

To make us confess to the crime, we were subjected to psychological torture. We were below ten years old and sat according to our ages with me being the youngest. One of the soldiers had brought a metal bucket filled with water, and the other soldier held a whip with multiple strands. At the sight of the whip, my mind raced back to a time my mom and I visited my dad here in his office, I saw how one contractor was brought in handcuffs, shirtless and without shoes. He had been severely scourged with a metal whip with welts covered in blood all over his chest and back. He was in agony.

The hoarse voice of the RSM brought me back from the mental torture I was undergoing to the physical one about to be meted out to us. He addressed us thus, “If you do not tell me the truth, you see this bucket of water and whip, I will lock you up in the cell and early every morning, they will bring you out in the cold, soak you and beat you!” Then he pointed his staff to my brother, and asked, “Who lit the fire?!” It’s not me, my brother muttered in trepidation. Focusing on Ezra, he repeated the question, and got the same response.

Finally turning to me, he asked for the third time, “Who lit the fire?!” “It’s me.” I confessed. Not knowing what to expect. Then he asked who told me to do it and I pointed at them. He asked me, if they tell you to put your finger in the fire, would you? And I said no. “Don’t do it again!” He warned and ordered us to be taken back home. This time around, the ride was enjoyable even though we still kept mute.