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The Risk-Reward Geography of Africa

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In secondary school, you might have learnt that action and reaction are equal and opposite (at least in the simple world). Extend that to business, you will understand that risks correlate with opportunities, but to be a good value builder, you must minimize those risks within the domains of the opportunities. 

Just after hitting submit button on this piece which ran earlier this morning, I received this press release from Control Risk. Did you see Nigeria? Huge Risk but also massive Reward. That is the state of Africa in general – and if you want to eliminate all the risks, you will never buy a ticket from that Switzerland, Sweden or New York to venture into Nairobi, Lagos or Accra.

In short, do not pray that all the risks are gone. If they disappear, Warren Buffett will find Nigeria attractive. And by the time he pumps in $billions, you could be a spectator in that sector. That does not mean that we should not deal with our obvious bottlenecks, my thesis is this: risks will always be here, either from the paralysis in Nigeria or new species of competitors. If you have a habit of running away from them, you will never take action.

Read the press release below.

 The fourth edition of the Africa Risk-Reward Index from specialist global risk consultancy Control Risks (ControlRisks.com) and independent global advisory firm Oxford Economics (OxfordEconomics.com) has been released today. The report offers a comprehensive and up-to-date view of the highly-dynamic business investment landscape in Africa. The respected index tracks the evolution of the investment landscape in major African markets, and this year’s edition marks several important and intriguing trends that impact investment strategy across the continent.

The benchmark research recognises that elections in African markets can often fuel tensions and raise investment concerns. However, it also demonstrates how elections increasingly serve to stabilise Africa’s evolving political landscape. It is crucial to identify how elections can end prolonged uncertainty, provide legitimacy, and empower existing or new African leaders with the mandates required to push forward with reform or counter-reform agendas.

“Do not get carried away by enthusiastic reform promises by assuming that reform-minded ‘strong-man’ leaders can push their way through free of any constraints,” Barnaby Fletcher, Associate Director Analyst at Control Risks, warns. “The real political lesson of recent years is to not underestimate the strength of counter-reform efforts by existing political structures, as well as the complexity of the undertaking, ” he explains.

African investment has traditionally been dominated by its big economies but the long-awaited emergence of intercontinental trade blocs is shifting the balance of power. The paper explores the huge potential significance of introduction of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) in late May, while raising some concerns about its implementation. It also analyses the significant progress made by regional blocs such as the strengthening East African Community (EAC).

“The current edition of the index shows a slight increase in reward scores for some of the continent’s largest economies, including Nigeria, Angola, and Egypt, as the economic recoveries in these giants gain traction. However, the highest reward potential remains centred in the East Africa region, with expanding services and infrastructure development boosting demand and improving business environments,” says Jacques Nel, Chief Economist Southern & East Africa of Oxford Economics.

The comprehensive paper also tackles common misinterpretations of the external influences affecting African economies. Africa is no longer an even battlefield for US and Chinese players as commonly thought. Current US-Africa totals USD 39bn, while China-Africa represents more than USD 200bn, and EU-Africa trade is now over USD 300bn according to data revealed in the paper. The research also notes a surge of interest in Africa from smaller geopolitical players such as Russia, the Gulf states, Turkey, and India.

“The standard narrative of US-China rivalry in Africa had always looked like an over-simplification, but is certainly outdated now. China’s engagement with Africa is undergoing a fundamental shift, the US is playing catch-up, and a host of other countries are seeking to expand their influence in an increasingly multipolar landscape,” explains Barnaby Fletcher, Associate Director at Control Risks. “Geopolitical objectives are being supported by a flood of development finance, creating both opportunity and competition for private-sector players.”

Africa remains a desirable investment destination with a young and increasingly urban demographic, a wealth of natural resources, and a proven ability to leapfrog technologies in areas such as telecommunications or finance. The growing competition for investment across the continent is helping to promote reform, which in turn encourages greater investment. In Africa, diversification increasingly equals success and economies can no longer rely on merely holding the most mineral resources.

“Especially at a time of a trade war, which threatens to further depress Chinese demand for commodities and global demand for oil and gas, dependence on raw commodities exports is a serious weakness for an economy. It is for this reason that governments are competing to attract investment capital and firms in order to grow their manufacturing and services sectors, to supply goods and services to the many millions of Africans moving to the continent’s cities,” says François Conradie, Head of Africa Research at Oxford Economics.

For the less experienced investor in Africa, the index offers a comparative snapshot of market opportunities and risks across the continent – offering critical information for market entry strategies. For the more seasoned Africa investor, the index provides a grounded, longer-term outlook of key trends shaping the investment landscape in major African economies. The Africa Risk-Reward Index goes beyond the headline-grabbing news and noise surrounding the topic to provide an informed view on investment into Africa.

What Motivates Me On Nigeria

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Across sectors and regions in Nigeria, let me remind you that we are still at infancy in nearly all of them. In other words, the opportunities are still there in our largely inventive societies. From my simple calculation, the capability parity value, after considering the resources in the nation, points to a GDP of at least $3 trillion. But we are less than $500 billion right now. You know the implication? Every value and opportunity can be multiplied by a factor of 6. That is how I see our nation – and that motivates me.

The best companies for Nigeria have not been started. If you look at Dangote Group and you think it is big, just note that it remains a company within a $500 billion economy. There are opportunity-moments for $2.5 trillion space available. If you look at banking and you think we have max’d all opportunities, I will remind you that Nigeria’s largest bank by market cap, GTBank, at less than $3 billion, is a huge testament that our banking sector is still at infancy. The big buildings should not fool you – the Nigerian banking sector has not reached up to 10% of its natural value even though First Bank may have clocked a century! Yes, in those years, no one has pioneered a credit system which is a legal money multiplier in an economy.

Why must you have 100% of cash before you can buy a car, build a house, go on vacation, send kids to school? Nigerian banks have not received the memos. Sure, no credit system is in place for them to build – and you cannot blame the banks; banking remains the most innovative sector nonetheless. But the fact that the credit system has not been done makes my point: opportunities abound ahead and the future is one of abundance.

We have no electricity, we have no roads, and we have an educational system that needs redesigns. If less than 8% of measurable adults in Yobe state can read and write, it means in Yobe state alone, there is a huge market on education. More than 37% of farm produce are wasted yearly, reminding everyone that preserving the little we produce could have real impacts on our agriculture sector and the wellbeing of our citizens. In aviation, the airports are so few that you wonder what we have been doing for decades. Yes, you fly from Lagos to Owerri, and you have to drive five hours to get to Ohafia. You fly from Abuja to Lagos, and you have to drive hours to northern Ekiti state.

Simply, Nigeria is an opportunity because we have not even started. Do not allow any human being to confuse you: every market opportunity in Nigeria is a fair game to compete right in and win. We are still at infancy and the best companies in this nation have not been started. Yes, tons of free range chicken opportunities that can come with no disruption.

Yet, it is not always necessary for a company to disrupt for it to grow. To explain that disruption is not always required for growth, I will use free-range chickens, found in most African villages, to create an analogy. A free-range chicken “is a bird that is allowed constant access to the outdoors, with plenty of fresh vegetation, sunshine and room to exercise”. As a teenager, I grew some and it was a very good business.

[..]

I want us to consider the need of creating new markets in Africa even when we are not disrupting any firm or sector. It is not always that one has to disrupt, but it is mandatory that one has to create, in order to find growth. My free-range chicken blossomed by finding its own paths and at the same time did not participate in any competition for my time. It used its creativity to survive and grow without disrupting (yes, disturbing) any person.

In the past, I have listed the business opportunities in this nation – they remain.

All The Business Opportunities In Nigeria

 

Reasons Why People Easily Settle For Less

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This may not go down so well with some people, but it is the truth – Nigerians settle for less. They do this because they have programmed themselves to suffer. In fact, Nigerians enjoy suffering. In Nigeria, you can hear people bragging about how they suffer most. You can hear statements like, “See this one that’s ‘making mouth’ about how he suffered as if he can compare his own to mine”, as if there’s an award for suffering.

I know readers will be fast to judge that things are not easy in the country. I am not against that, but we shouldn’t use it as excuse to settle for less. Honestly, Nigerians make it look as if someone has to suffer first before being successful. This is why someone whose father paved way for is looked down on because he didn’t ‘suffer’.

I once told someone that what most people do these days is struggling, and not hustling. The person didn’t understand me because to him, struggling and hustling are one and same thing. Anyway, let me clear the air a little bit. When you hustle or struggle, you get to leave your comfort zone which will make you uncomfortable for sometime. But then, if you are smart, you’ll find a way to control and manipulate your environment to give you what you want – this is hustling. But when you allow the environment to control and manipulate you and keep you where it likes, you are struggling (and that’s when suffering sets in). So in summary, a hustler uses his brain while a struggler uses just his body (lol).

Ok, let’s get back to where we were. The ‘you-need-to-suffer-to-make-it’ syndrome is affecting a lot of things in this country. To be honest, I believe things are the way they are in this country because of our mindset. Because we believe nothing good must come easy we swallow up a lot of trash dished out to us.

Ok, let me point out some ways this affects us:

a. Most Nigerians are uncomfortable with embracing modern day technology because they don’t want to be called lazy. Ok, let me ask. How many of us have vacuum cleaners in our houses? Don’t worry, I haven’t even seen it (lol). What about other home appliances like dish washers, rice cookers, foo-foo pounders and the rest? Ok, coming to our offices, how many offices are conducive for people to stay and be productive to their maximum point? What about office equipment and machines that could make works easier and more efficient? Of course if you complain, your colleagues will tell you to ‘manage’ because this is ‘Naija’, where ‘things are hard’. And if your boss hears it, he will tell you to either make do with what you have or procure them with your salary.

b. Our public office holders actually treat us the way they do because they know we will just sigh and decide to ‘manage’. They know Nigerians easily adapt to difficult situations and whatever is dished out to them won’t really bother them. Honestly, if we haven’t embraced suffering the way we do, there is no way we will be plying bad roads that break our bones and send us to hospitals. It’s because of our mindset that a lot of communities in the country do not have portable water, which has been provided for. What about civil servants that have not been paid for months at a stretch? Of course they will survive; they have been surviving since so what’s the difference? Our ‘suffering’ mindset is denying us good governance; we need to do something about that.

c. Our utility companies misbehave as well. It is because of the way we see life that ‘NEPA’ will give us power for only 8 hours and we will say, “they have tried o. If they are giving it to us like this everyday we won’t be complaining” (as if we don’t pay them). And because we have decided to settle for less, these people are not planning to improve.

d. Our education system is also witnessing this suffering syndrome. I always say that the coming of private schools to Nigeria has changed the outlook of Nigerian education system (though a lot of works still need to be done). Those of us that went to public schools do not cherish going to school, especially in our primary schools. We always look for reasons why we should skip classes, all because of the hardship experienced at school. But today, children look forward to going to school (especially private primary and nursery school children) because they go there to study and play in good environment that has all the necessary facilities. As for our public schools, well, a look at their students while going to school will tell you where they will rather be.

e. A lot of Nigerians are unemployed or underemployed right now because they believe they must suffer first before ‘making it’. So they look at themselves as passing through the ‘suffering’ stage, which will usher in the ‘success’ stage. I don’t know how this ideology came into our country because it is not in our culture. Yes, what our culture preaches is diligence and hard work. In fact, in Igbo tradition, when people suffer, it is seen as temptation, ill luck or repercussion. Our tradition doesn’t preach that you suffer first before you land your dream job. So, if you know someone that tied himself down with this mindset, kindly let him know that he can aim higher and achieve.

f. We don’t direct the career path of our young ones because we believe that when they grow up they ‘will suffer like every other person’ until they find their footing. But then, what about those that continue to suffer without finding their footings? Shouldn’t we have helped them at the right time? Must we allow them to pass through the same pain we experienced because we believe that’s the only way they will be ‘wise’?

A lot of people have developed this ideology that they must suffer before they find their right path. If you ask me, I will say that it was passed onto them by their parents. So we have been passing on this suffering syndrome unto the next generation and that means that the old story will continue.

We need to understand that there is nothing wrong with coming out of school and landing your dream job, or going into the career you have passion for. Let’s stop preaching about ‘suffering’ and ‘struggling’ and start preaching about ‘fun’ and ‘hustling’

How NIRSAL’s Mapping Will Unlock Financing for Agribusiness in Nigeria

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The Nigeria Incentive Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending(NIRSAL) was established by the Central Bank of Nigeria to collaborate with all the players in the agricultural sector to fix the frictions in the agribusiness value chains and de risk it to unlock financing and investments. Despite this strategic intervention for Nigerian farmers, agriculture is still underfunded due to certain risks which have made banks not to dole out the funds to operators in the agro-value chain.

The Nigeria Incentive-Based Risk Sharing System for Agricultural Lending (NIRSAL Plc.) is a US$500million Non-Bank Financial Institution wholly-owned by the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) created to Redefine, Dimension, Measure, Re-Price and Share agribusiness-related credit risks in Nigeria.

Established in collaboration with the Federal Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (FMARD) and Nigerian Bankers’ Committee in 2013, NIRSAL’s mandate is to stimulate the flow of affordable finance and investments into the agricultural sector by de-risking the agribusiness finance value chain, fixing agricultural value chains, building long-term capacity, and institutionalizing incentives for agricultural lending through its five (5) strategic pillars, namely: Risk Sharing, Insurance, Technical Assistance, Incentives and Rating.

NIRSAL has recently introduced Mapping To Market Concept which will redesign agricultural financing risk management and agribusiness models that take cognizance of the fact that the banks will only fund a sector that is secured, with controlled risk and structured. To redesign the Black Hole, i.e. Upstream Agricultural Sector, which has high risks making it unattractive for bank lending despite being the foundation that other components of the ecosystem are dependent on, NIRSAL has acquired advanced geospatial technologies such as Satellite Imaging Data to be supported by Unmanned Aerial System platforms. These tools offer the following benefits:

  • Efficient for monitoring large swathes of farmland such as in the North East and North West region due to their land mass
  • Identification of the most ecologically endowed areas for specific commodities
  • Remote sensing of crop health status and aggregation of fragmented farmlands.

Lack of available and accurate data to support investments in agriculture in Nigeria is a bane to the value chain and the acquisition of these state of the art technology by NIRSAL will correct this anomaly.

Through its Mapping To Market redesign, NIRSAL will pre-sell smallholder farming Geo-cooperatives to finance. They are developed and mapped in sync with the natural ecologies of specific commodities with farmers who will be deepened with financial and technical capabilities to produce specific crops in large quantities to service the offtake market coordinated by NIRSAL in line with pre-agreed quantity, quality and price parameters.

This initiative will create thousands of large, integrated, bankable clusters of farmers with a minimum ticket of 250 farmers mapped to a 250Ha Geo-Cooperative to downstream markets under guaranteed offtake arrangements such as facilitation of working capital and asset financing for all key stakeholders in the specific commodity value chain. Mapping of these players to each other and the Geo-Cooperative tickets, domiciliation of all loan accounts with a financing bank or a consortium of banks and a near zero cash movement between the locked in parties to the transaction will deepen the agro space in Nigeria. Anchored by NIRSAL’s Credit Risk Guarantee supported by its Risk Management Tools, Techniques, Methodologies, Processes, Technical Assistance Facility and Global Partnerships, the inherent capabilities will provide a holistic monitoring mechanism for each project.

Nigeria’s agricultural industry will soon witness its golden moment courtesy of the Mapping To Market strategic intervention to fully unlock its potential for food security and economic prosperity.

NCC To Establish Emergency Communication Centers Around Nigeria

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The Federal Ministry of Information has on Tuesday, commissioned the National Emergency Toll-Free Number – 112 in Katsina State. The Honorable Minister of Communication, Dr. Isa Ali Ibrahim Pantami, said the goal is to establish Emergency Communication Centers (ECC), in each state of the federation.

Before now, only a few states in Nigeria like Anambra, Akwa Ibom, Benue, Edo, Enugu, FCT, Imo, Kaduna, Kano, Katsina, Ondo, Ogun, Oyo and Plateau have operational 112 Emergency Communication Centers. And its effectiveness was not at all times certain. A reason why the Lagos State Government created the 767 toll free emergency number.

In June, the Federal Executive Council (FEC), directed the Nigerian Communication Commission (NCC), to establish 112 centers in each state. The FEC also directed that training should be given to personnel for the effective dispatch of distress calls to relevant agencies.

Each state is required to volunteer a piece of land for the purpose of the call center.

Hon. Pantami said the move is timely considering prevalent security challenges existing in the country right now, and other cases of emergencies like flood or fire.

He also used the opportunity to campaign for SIM registration, emphasizing that every unregistered sim card will be cut off on the 25th of September. He said the decision is to use the medium to checkmate the activities of criminal elements operating behind phone lines. That once a crime is committed using a telephone, it would only take 60 minutes to fish out the culprit.

The Minister said the next state in line for ECC is Ogun, and urged Nigerians to display security consciousness by alerting security agencies when they notice criminal activities.

The Nigerian Police, Nigerian Civil Defense Corps, National Emergency Management Agency, Fire services, Federal Road Safety Corps etc. are all connected to the ECC, and their personnel have been urged to live up to their responsibilities in cases of emergency.