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The Physics of Luck

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Luck is an event, positive or negative, brought about by chance rather than through one’s own effort. I have heard stories of how a lucky individual won millions in a lotto, or how an unlucky passerby got struck by stray bullet, of how a family picked a winning ticket in a visa lottery. I have heard so many stories.

In a football match in Madrid, Cristiano Ronaldo scored the winner after an intense battle with a rival team when he intercepted a low cross from one of his team mates to score a tap in that gave them the needed maximum points. It was so easy, so effortless but yet so crucial. Football fans reacted by saying that he only scores out of luck, that his goals have got nothing to do with brilliance, that he only cashes in on the efforts of his team mates; but in all these,  only a few bothered to ask,  why Cristiano Ronaldo?

With over 600 career goals and more than 100 outside the 18 yard box, it means he has scored more goals within the penalty area than outside. The region where goals are more likely to be by luck.

Is he just lucky or is his power of anticipation and positioning high?  I attempt to solve problems by asking a lot of questions and breaking the problem down.

Let me continue by breaking down the steps towards scoring an easy goal. First there has to be a cross from a team mate, Secondly Ronaldo has to anticipate and intercept. I can now separate this into two parts:

1.That which depends on him (Anticipation and positioning) D

2.That which depends not on him (The cross from his team mate) N

I can then at this point say that luck (L) is the product of that which depends on you and that which depends not on you, all happening at the same time. D•N=L

If this equation is true, as basic as it is, then the interesting part of it is that if D is (0) then Luck is also (0). Also, luck approaches zero (0) as D approaches (0). In other words, the smaller the effort which depends you, the smaller the luck.

My emphasis will now be on what to do to increase the factors dependent on you. I can list 3 itemS that attempt to do that:

  • Anticipation and Timing
  • Frequency or Repetition
  • Presence

In the first, a typical analogy that helps is what elite football strikers do following a cross or volley. They fix their gaze on the ball which is in midair, often ignoring the presence of defenders and the goal keeper. Which is why it is common to see strikers slamming their bodies against goal keepers while going for a header because they can’t afford to remove their gaze from the ball even for a second. In one match in the EPL, Liverpool scored a free-kick after the technical department gave them the hint that the players in the opponent wall always jump very high when free-kicks are taken. The taker slotted the ball under after the players in the opponent’s wall must have all jumped up. After the match the Manager gave the credit to the technical crew. That’s a typical example of increased anticipation.

Outside football there are ways to increase anticipation, one way is by having the relevant information on the field in question. Gather enough data. In other words, be informed.

For the second, a typical analogy that can help you understand it further is this. To score as many goals as possible, a footballer needs to be in the18 yard box as often as possible. The more he is there, the more his chances of scoring. That’s why centre forwards whose position is in the opponents penalty box always outscore defenders and midfielders. To do this they need to build their cardio respiratory endurance so as to have the energy to always run in as often as they can.

Outside football you can increase frequency by say sending out as many Resumes as you can, attending as many networking events as you can, always using a particular road until you meet that man or woman you want to meet who uses the same route.

As for the last, you need to be present for the said event to take place. For example, what are the chances of a stray bullet hitting a journalist if he or she is not present at the scene of a violent protest? If the scene is avoided, the incident is avoided.  What are the chances of someone getting involved in a plane crash if he doesn’t fly at all? And what are the chances of passing a test if you don’t show up at all?  I believe you know the answers.

In the end for any event to take place, all these factors must come together at the right (same) time. It is then also  important to note that events are unpredictable, that despite all calculated efforts ,events could go either way. Nevertheless, let the odds be on your side.

The Dangers When Motivation Becomes Incomplete

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We have so many motivational speakers. I love them, and I listen to them sometimes, when I’m a little bit discouraged about what I’m doing to fire up my spirit.

However, I would never recommend a motivational speaker to anyone who plans on starting an idea.

To be honest with you, the number of motivational speakers around the world is increasing. By the way, let me not go too far. Let me talk about my country Nigeria.

I know we all are aware of the daily problems we face in the country. Matter of fact, new problems arise every day. These problems have birthed problem ambassadors who herald the problems and pull crowds because of them.

Here’s what I mean, poverty is on the rise in the country, so also is youth unemployment. There are lots of people who have taken advantage of this to venture into motivational talks.

Here’s what they do most times: They amplify the problem. They make you feel like you’re at the edge of hell as if you’re not aware of the problem. They make you feel like there’s a big disaster coming and that you’d suffer from the problem.

They give statistics for unemployment rate, they give statistics of poverty rate and make it look all real to you. You realize you are unemployed, you realize you are poor, or your job pay is less; you then look up to them for a solution.

Now here’s where there’s a plot twist. They fall back on a simple solution and they prescribe this solution to everyone. We all know what it is;

JUST BELIEVE

WHATEVER YOU PUT YOUR MIND TO, YOU’D SUCCEED

CHANGE YOUR MINDSET, YOUR MIND THIS, YOUR MIND THAT

There’s a big problem with such pieces of advice and I tell you such a piece of advice can ruin you.

You can bear me witness that many of us have changed our minds about success a long time ago. If you haven’t, I did a year ago and I’m still very far from it. Mind you, I have not said these pieces of advice are harmful. I am just saying that they are incomplete.

Here’s what I mean: The best way to kill a novice by drowning is by convincing him that whatever he believes in his mind, he’d get it done. Then take him to a 9 feet pool and throw him in telling him to swim the length while leaving him alone.

You may probably return to meet a drowned man or woman who had the greatest belief in the world. Whose mindset was the strongest. Who had faith in his abilities more than any other thing, but yet now drowned.

Did such person not believe in himself and was so optimistic? Such person did!

But did such person know the process in swimming? Absolutely NO!

Now here’s the reason why I feel you shouldn’t attend motivational meetings if you’ve got nothing doing. A lot of them do not talk about the process.

Matter of fact, they make money from the meetings they organize or got lucky in some ways. If you amplify the problem for people, please talk about the solution and the process in the solution.

Process matters more than the motivation. I’d rather listen to a speaker who simply talks about the process than the other who does the opposite. And if you’re lucky, you get a speaker who does both.

Mr. Speaker, now that you’ve told us there’s a problem with unemployment, what should we do? We should learn a skill, right? What skill? Any skill?

Really? Any skill?

Did I just hear you say any skill sir?

Now, that’s ridiculous

I personally believe that if I am motivating you to succeed, I should tell you what to do and how to go about it. I will be very candid with you, motivation is short lived. It doesn’t last more than a few days.

Unfortunately, it may last few hours if you get motivated then return to the problem you were trying to figure out. You lose motivation when it doesn’t still work out.

I have been there, I have had days of serious motivation only to cry at nights. Countless times!

The problem was that I still repeated the same process, I did not know how to go about a working process and the speaker only spoke about the problem, not the process. That is why people jump from one entrepreneurial event to another, then to another and another. They don’t get answers, they don’t know where to start.

There’s this saying: If you’re consistent with something, you’d eventually succeed. I agree with this statement to an extent after considering a lot of things. I think it needs to be restructured.

Consistency sometimes might be the key to poverty and failure alone. For example, if you keep selling Tom Tom in a place where they don’t need it. If you’re consistent with it, you might still die poor.

Or you’re consistently learning coding in a village in one area that still lives in the stone age. You’re the only one with laptop, and you follow that advice, you might die as the poorest coder that ever lived.

This statement needs some extra information added. I have seen lots of people who are consistent with an idea I know will never scale

Or they just keep learning a skill and they are consistent. It’s possible to be consistent and not still get a job.

If you’re consistent without knowing the roadmap, strategies and process to follow, your consistency might ruin you.

More like if you want to be a very proficient writer. Sorry to burst your bubbles, you can consistently write yet not be known to the point of having jobs.

At least you need to know some strategies and processes to follow. Most people do no pay attention to this crucial second part. This crucial second path requires being deliberate about the process.

The fact that people need to be motivated is true but when motivation does not acknowledge the reality of getting process right, it might be dangerous.

How Internet Fraudsters Operate and How to Stay Safe from Them

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Internet fraud has been a pain in the lives of many people. A large number of people have lost fortunes to internet fraudsters. With the accessibility of the internet to anyone with a smartphone, there’s no limit of what a fraudster could do; all he needs is information.

Internet fraud is a type of fraud or deception which makes use of the internet  and could involve hiding of information or providing incorrect information for the purpose of tricking victims out of money, property, and inheritance. Internet fraud is not considered a single, distinctive crime but covers a range of illegal and illicit acts carried out in the internet. 

According to the FBI’s 2017 Internet Crime Report, the Internet Crime Complaint Center (IC3) received about 300,000 complaints. Victims lost over $1.4 billion in online fraud in 2017 and 2.7 billion dollars  was also lost in the year 2018 to internet fraudsters.

When internet fraud is being talked about, most fingers point to Africa, especially Nigeria as the country is said to be responsible for internet fraud mayhem due to the fact that many internet fraudsters have been traced to the country. While it is unfortunate to say that this is not far from the truth but victims of internet fraud must take a share of the blame for this menace because it takes two to tango. 

Our aim in this article is to educate internet users on how internet fraudsters operate and how to stay safe from them since it has become something that has come to stay and internet fraudsters make use of our favorite social network sites just as we do.

The most common types of online fraud are called phishing and spoofing. Phishing is the process of collecting your personal information through emails or websites claiming to be legitimate.   This information can include usernames, passwords, credit card numbers, social security numbers, etc.   Often times, the emails direct you to a website where you can update your personal information. 

Because these sites often look official, they hope youll be tricked into disclosing valuable information that you normally would not naturally reveal.   This, often times, results in identity theft and financial loss as your data is being transferred to the site once you click on it and open it up.

This is the advanced kind of internet fraud but there are stages it passes through as most internet fraudsters don’t just send random emails to random person; they try to establish relationships and gain trust so when the prospective victim is asked to do anything or sent a link to click on, he/she won’t have second thoughts. 

Some internet fraudsters use the method called Spamming which is related to phishing. The spam email addresses send mails to random email addresses, the email sent contains a folder, inside the folder contains a program called virus, the virus could be attached as a pdf document or a word document, once you click on the folder and download it or open it the virus spreads into your device, this happens in seconds and you as a lay man user of computer you won’t notice. What this virus program does is that it transfers all your details, all activities carried out in the device and to spammers and spammers become in charge of your device, and could gain uninterrupted access to your device anytime. They could access your mail through the virus, send mails using your email address and respond to mails using your email address .

Other internet fraudsters device means of getting you through provision of care, attention and love and even offer to date you. A fraudster does not mind spending a whole year with you just to make sure you fall in love with him or trust him. He claims to be who he’s not. Some claim to be in the US army fighting in war zones like Syria, Afghanistan, Somalia and other war ravaged countries, while others claim to be United Nations humanitarian corps sent to disease infested countries. Another set of people might claim to be international business men and contractors. All of these personalities presented to you is for you to fall prey to the charming pictures, bogus profile and promising future. 

Some only send pictures and don’t accept video calls because they are Cat fishes, some accept video calls on their own terms that they would call at their own convenience, the video call sent to you is a moving motion of the person impersonated picture with voice added to it and because of your inexperience, you may likely believe that your spouse is real but hes just an impersonator. Once you fall in love or they have gained your trust they will start asking you for money and other items with different reasons; the ones that claim to be military officers will ask you to pay to their Commanding officers so that they would sign a terminal leave and come to you; the medical staff or international business men will claim that they are stranded where they are and left with no cash and request you send them cash instantly to sort themselves out. Just because you have fallen in love and trusted them, you will not ask further questions and just go ahead in granting their wishes. 

This could go on for years with you seeing only pictures of them till you get fed up or discover that they are fraudsters and block them off but before then they have sapped a fortune out of you

Other fraudsters pose as dealers, real estate agents, company agents or even as the CEO of a popular company. They send messages to unsuspecting victims  presenting a deal, an inducing deal at a very cheap price. Some claim to be gold sellers or dealers, real estate dealers, some even claim to be selling oil wells and companies. They have done their homework so they have any document you could ever ask for already, and will present it to you even before you ask. After seeing documents, you will think you are in a great deal because of the cheap rate of the items, but its all forged and fake. 

An oil well that the standard price is 50 billion USD will be presented to you to be 10 million USD, and the price will induce you because you are paying less for more. When you ask why the item is going for so cheap a price, they’d come up with different reasons like;  “they are in need of an urgent cash”, “they are giving promo/giveaway” or “they want to get rid of the business”. Once you make payment, they disappear. 

Although they are other numerous ways internet fraudsters operate, highlighted ones are the most areas that have gotten so many persons as victims. They operate with the popular social media. 

The best way to stay safe from internet fraud is not to develop trust issues, but to be circumspect and deliberate. Always ask further questions, do not be in a hurry and avoid being put under undue pressure to part with your money. Make online purchases from the direct source even if its more expensive and don’t open emails or click on sites whose  sender you do not know, and finally, refrain from opening unsecure web pages.

Is Data The New Oil?

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Dangote Group is investing heavily in oil refinery and you will wonder if Dangote Group really knows what he’s doing. I mean 2030 is almost here, electric cars and other forms of clean energies will soon take over our industries, why then will he be investing billions to build a refinery?

Well, this post isn’t really about refineries or Dangote Group in a way, however, I feel I need to clear the fact that a lot of people have raised about if oil will still be calling the next twenty years. Yes, it will. Oil may not be valuable in other parts of the world, but Africa will totally rely on oil and as Prof Ndubuisi Ekekwe clearly analysed in a post of his, that in a bid to work towards green-house free gases, the western world would have to dump their cars that run on fuel into Africa, making it quite cheap due to huge demand. What we will see is a plethora of luxurious cars being owned by even the middle class. How we will address climatic issues in Africa, I’m yet to know and I see it as a huge problem for the continent. Yet, Dangote still has an oil market, a very huge one; bold move also and more money.

Now that I’ve explained simply on that, I’ll quickly make a twist to the reason for the article. If there’s anything that has been driving wealth in this part of Africa, it has been oil. Not even agriculture. Everyone believes oil to be more valuable than gold and like I explained, we still have some twenty, thirty or even fifty years depending on the government and how they are keen towards economic development.

However, there seems to be a new source of wealth that seem to have a more promising future than oil in Africa, and that is data. Data simply means having the accurate information of people, sets, insights, statistics or whatsoever in a database. Let me quickly take you down the journey of Amazon success. Amazon started by selling just books from authors to whoever needed them. Jeff Bezos played a long-term game – he was more focused on the customers than competitors. That’s not the point, the point is that his model was set up to understand the behavior of his customers in order for him to be able to use it to get more products on board. Jeff developed his own data himself and look where Amazon is. Let’s not talk about Facebook, WhatsApp, Google, Uber, AirBnB, and a host of others who run their companies not just on anything but data. If there’s anything most of these companies are desperate for, it is data.

Now, I’m quite aware that there may be the negative side to this data rush and it might seem like I’m saying, “go get data”. Well, yes! Everything has its negative sides, there just needs to be regulations and that’s all. With data, you can control the behavior or your customers, you can be manipulative, you can force customers to buy products against their subconscious will and keep making your bucks. Those are the negative sides. However, using this same data, you can provide insights which will drive the growth of your company, your business and even the economy. If there’s anything I’d encourage the government to be more concerned about is on how to drive data into the system. Fine, it will shed a lot of workers, make the workforce light but give us acceleration in development.

Let me take a quick flip and focus on Nigeria, let me say Africa. I’m quite sure you’re aware that if there’s anything Africa is trying to achieve seriously now, it is economic development, and more than ever before, there are more hands-on deck to try to get this up. Start-ups, private bodies and even the government are involved. However, we’ve got a slight issue and it is the unavailability of data. Data is not concise, it is not widespread, and it is not open sourced. For start-ups to grow, they need key insights. For agriculture to thrive, we need to rely on deep insights and not just assumptions. For sales to be effective, we need to focus on specific insights. However, you’d realize that not so much has been done to develop it.

One of the reasons I founded my startup over a year ago was to solve unemployment through bridging the gap between the world of work and Africans (the youths specifically). This would achieve two major things for me;

  1. I will have built a system around the accumulation of data to solve this problem
  2. I can always expand into other businesses as I progress based on the data.

While I won’t be able to share the whole details and plot, I must say that I realized that whoever has the hay has the horse.

We need data to fix power issue in Nigeria. When I mean fix, I don’t mean supply. We have different power problems based in different regions. A region might need to have just 10 hours of power daily while some need just 5 hours. If the power release is not enough, then data can help us manage it effectively and even serve as a bridge between sellers and consumers of electricity equipment. Whoever has the data controls the market.

Same thing goes with education which I’m involved in. I have seen the rise of so many edutech start-ups and I do not seem threatened in a bit. I mean edutech start-ups within Africa. Very soon, we will all play a data game just like the race between Siri and Alexa in the world of voice intelligence. Whoever has the data, has the market.

My point is that;

  1. Look at the huge role data must play in this present time, the government needs to put systems in place to support its mining either by private bodies or whoever.
  2. Data is the new oil. Just like how Dangote Group is optimistic about the success of his refinery, whoever has the data has the market.

The Society as a Cause of the High Rate of Unemployment in Nigeria

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When my WAEC result came out and I found that I miraculously made a P8 in Mathematics, I was so happy. But my parents thought otherwise – they wanted me to go back to school and re-register WAEC. Even though I sat for GCE and its result hasn’t been released, my parents didn’t want to take chances. Hmmmm. Me, go back to school, no way. My parents complained to people around and I started receiving admonitions and advices like “You want to end up a hairdresser?”, “You want to go and learn tailoring?”, “You want to fry akara?” (this last one always makes me laugh each time I remember it), and so many other funny and derogatory statements.

This same thing happened to my elder brother when he was struggling with JAMB. His own ‘advisers’ came with “You want to be a barrow pusher?”, “You will only end up a mechanic or a vulcanizer”, “At least you can become a taxi or bus driver”. All these came because he had to sit for JAMB twice before he was able to gain admission into a federal university. And to think that these statements came because he spends his spare time at a mechanic workshop where my father repairs his cars makes me feel bad each time I remember that period.

 I know a lot of readers may be conversant with this type of situations. Funny thing is, it doesn’t end after graduation. Mine taught me that.

When I got a job in a private school, after my NYSC and several months of jumping from one interview venue to another, it all started again. This time the comments were things like “Why are you working here? Aren’t you a graduate?”, “Did you try so-so and so bank? They are collecting CVs now”, “Someone like you shouldn’t be wasting away in a school teaching children and being used bla-bla-bla” The morale-killing comments were just too much. 

The truth is that our society has made it difficult for people to go into businesses and jobs that would have made them shine. We constantly hear things like – “So after wasting money going to school he ended up driving a taxi?” “So after all her shakara in the university her brain could only allow her do tailoring?” “There is no job so he/she went into business.” “He couldn’t find a job, let him manage teaching for now.” The society has actually chosen the works that are fit for graduates, secondary school leavers and illiterates. It has also decided on the right job for men and women. And we are all complaining of unemployment. What an irony.

Now, what do we mean by unemployment? One of the entries in Oxford Advanced Learner’s Dictionary defines it as “a state of not having a job.” But if you ask me, I’ll say that unemployment is a state of not having the desired job. What this ‘desired job’ is should be left at the discretion of the person concerned. No one is in a position to tell people what is the best for them.

So I’ll ask. If I want to own a beauty salon where I can make both men and women look good, and I didn’t go for that dream because the society thinks it is too low for my status, should I still be complaining about the high rate of unemployment in the country? If I can make good and delicious akara but was uncomfortable opening an akara and pap joint because of what people will say, do I have the right to point an accusing finger at the government for the unemployment status? What do I really need to be employed, going into what I want to do or doing what the society dictates? These questions call for deeper reflections.

Let me motivate us with the story of two people I know so well. 

There’s a friend of my sister. She loves to draw. During her university days, she found out that she loves drawing ladies in their different outfits. She started making funny sketches of ladies wearing new designs. These were her pastimes. During her NYSC, she decided to take her hobby to the next level. She went to a roadside tailor to learn the art of clothe-making. She found out that sewing didn’t catch her fancy so from there she went to a fashion school where she was taught pattern drafting and all. That was where she was sure that she doesn’t like sewing. But then, she can create new designs. So, she combined her knowledge from tailoring shop and pattern drafting training to go into fashion business. Because she doesn’t want to sew, she partnered with other tailors who sew her designs – both for custom-made and mass production. Today, she has a thriving fashion house in Abuja and she is an employer of labour.

Then, there’s my brother who loves cars and wants to find out how to keep them in good shape. You remembered what I said about his visits to a mechanic workshop during his waiting days? Well, he started this earlier than we know. We, his siblings, found out much later that his days of disappearing and re-appearing during his primary school days were spent in the workshop. But my parents knew all along and did their best to discourage that, which didn’t work because when he then turned their own cars into his own experimental specimen they had to let him go (lol). However, due to lack of proper guidance, he didn’t go for science subjects so ended up studying political science in the university. His love for fixing cars did not go. Like he told me, he doesn’t have to study mechanical engineering to learn how to fix cars only that he won’t be able to work in an automobile company. That’s true because currently, he’s working in a good legal firm but his side hustle is still car fixing – he diagnoses with car scanners, repairs minor problems and deals in Peugeot auto parts. Sometimes I wonder if he would have gone into full time car repairs and servicing if the society doesn’t think the way it does.

These stories are just a few among the numerous success stories I’ve heard. Look at Peace Transport company for instance. I heard he started his business by being a bus driver for someone else. Today, see where the company is. 

Dear Nigerians, let us for once stop pointing fingers at the government. We have been doing that for a long time and nothing is coming out of it. Let us look deeper inwards and find out how to solve our problems. Find out what you truly want. Don’t worry about what the society will say, it won’t take care of you when you hungry, trust me. Go for that job or business which will keep you out of the list of the unemployed in Nigeria. You never can tell what will make you shine. Let your talent, knowledge and aspirations work for you. Remember the three E’s (efficient, effective, and easy – story for another day) and use them now to think of how to make them bring joy to you.

Dear Nigerian Society (I guess that means all of us), stop derogatory comments about occupations. No occupation is low. None is substandard. None is bad (except illegal ones). Let us encourage our youths to go for that which they love and can do best, even if the ‘money’ isn’t coming in yet. Remember, live isn’t all about white-collar jobs.

Let’s keep the hustle real. Team Heal Nigeria.