By Sani Nahuche

More than two thousand years ago, the Roman orator, belletrist, thinker, Stoic, manipulator-politician, and (usually) virtuous gentleman, Marcus Tullius Cicero, presented the following story. One Diagoras, a nonbeliever in the gods, was shown painted tablets bearing the portraits of some worshippers who prayed, then survived a subsequent shipwreck. The implication was that praying protects you from drowning. Diagoras asked, “Where were the pictures of those who prayed, then drowned?”

NASSIM NICHOLAS TALEB, The Black Swan (2007).

Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the iconoclastic author of The Black Swan, wants you to spend more time in the graveyard. Not literally, although that wouldn’t also be a bad idea. Nothing scares most men more than a visit to the cemetery. Nothing reminds them more about their morality and how they have less time to accomplish all their dreams than they think.

Although the Author, Taleb, isn’t precisely pointing you in that direction. Hitherto, the author is trying to outline how we as humans like to seek answers and allude evidence to only the achievements or success of people or things. That is, we ignore all the failure, effort and travails of those who came close but never close enough. This is why the graveyard has a remarkable and unmatched silence when compared to the bevvy of noise and applause that is synonymous with award ceremonies.

Furthermore, Taleb tries to point out how dead men get to tell no tales, either about their tribulations or trials. It is only those- the few of us – that somehow manage to hold success by its grip that are celebrated or sought after for advice, guidance and mentorship. Isn’t it ironical that we learn more from our failures, but yet success has the most friends? Therefore, if knowledge is truly what you seek, perhaps you should spend less time at award ceremonies and more time in graveyards – whether or not you choose to interpret this metaphorically of literally is entirely down to you.

Most writers, historians and journalist tend to work with success in reverse. While only highly successful people get to ever have great biographies, documentaries or are more favoured for any form of analysis or study, they often share a specific trait that is said to be at the core of why they rose to the heights that they did. Similarly, it is generally assumed that if you also adopted some of these desirable traits, you too would likely attain the heights that they did.

In Nigeria, we tend to exhibit some of these traits, however, maybe not exactly in the context that Taleb postulated. This could be the reason why we continuously aim to celebrate or commiserate with other nations when they are in joy or grief but hesitate to do so when something similarly befalls us. Could it be that we are drawn to the cheers and jeers in the award ceremonies than the silence and failures that lies in our graveyards?

Are we quick to hide under the guise of religion or ethnicity when it comes to helping or consoling one another? Are those our “failures” that we have refused to identify with? While we are still on the matter of religion, the two major religious groups in Nigeria – Christian and Islam – has never compelled anybody to take up any arms on its behalf or shed any blood for the good or furtherance of it. Both religions clearly state that every man would face the end or judgement as one person and not as a group, tribe, clan or family. We would eventually be judged based on the aggregate of all our actions or inactions while we lived. Therefore, who are we to blindly go to war for either God or Allah? Where have we been instructed to do so?

Our religiousness does not stop us from stealing or killing each other. It hasn’t prevented us from taking advantage of each other and oppressing the poor amongst us. However, we have somehow found inspiration in shedding blood and causing havoc under the religion umbrella. As a people, isn’t it crystal clear that even if we all adopted one religion, we wouldn’t really be any different from what we are now? And that our actions come from our individual thoughts and not necessarily to the groups we belong to.

Nobody explicitly came into this world and picked a group or religion that they wanted to belong to. Nobody chose a country nor tribe in the same country. In the North-West people are being slaughtered, families are being displaced, and the picture is as grotesque as you can think of. Yet, we play the fool and pat a blind eye to all the atrocities that are carried on there on a daily basis, simply because we are not directly affected, or we do not identify with the dominant tribe in the region. This same attitude is exhibited across the board, regardless of the part of the nation in crisis, the other parts seem to pretty much ignore them.

Alas, we are quick to commiserate with happens thousands of miles away from us. While we should also extend our condolences to people suffering in any part of the globe, we should not be hypocritical about it. A saying comes to mind; Charity begins at home. Why are we playing to the gallery, impressing those that are not impressed by our antics? We have to learn to take care of home before impressing the streets.

We also have politicians that are hell-bent on furthering their individual purposes as they shamelessly hop from one political party to the other, brazenly displaying their lack of values and morals. Rogues and charlatans find their way into political offices because we do not seek to elect people with a solid track record and clean reputation. In the end, we all pay the price for our actions or inactions.

Our failure to visit our ‘graveyard’ means that our failures and trials will continue to hunt us. Our love for the noisy ceremonies where real lessons cannot be learnt or taught is pure folly that will eventually lead us nowhere – at least not any place that we would like to be.

Be it as it may, to begin to solve our plethora of problems we must look to those that we have handed our country to and demand that they give a fair account of their stay or time in office. Better still, we must ensure that we hand over the affairs of our country to trusted hands that have demonstrated the pedigree to proudly and intelligently lead people. We must say a big no to senators that will reconvene when they please and not place the interest of the nations first. We must say no to overnight politicians with no track record or those riding to power on the back of political godfathers.

It continues to remain an insult on the intelligence of over 180 million Nigerians that wake up very early in the morning and set out to work many hours for meagre wages that are not enough to sustain 80% of the population. Never again should 180 million individuals seat back and allow a few run the nation like a circus, subjecting every one of us to circus clowns that are merely regarded as objects of entertainment rather than people to serve and defend. We must stand firm and say Never Again to modern slavery. This is the time to retreat to our graveyards and wallow in the silence of our misfortunes, with the goal of avoiding the mistakes of our past. We must awake from our slumber and say good morning to a new dawn!

“God Bless Nigeria”

By Olowu Modebola Anne

Risk: It’s in the air you breathe,

In your drinking water, in your car, while you walk, while you sleep.

It’s at your backyard, even in your house, place of worship and your place of work.

There is risk everywhere.

It doesn’t matter you been risk averse, because that in itself is also a risk. Risk is just part of our existence, it’s an inherent necessary evil that one shouldn’t ignore but rather weaponize into a positive drive to yield beautiful results.

As, Esme Bianco simply put it ‘You can’t get anywhere in life without taking risks’. So, not only are human beings ‘Risk Takers’ but we are also ‘Risk tamers’.

In today’s modern society, folks are defied by risks from natural disasters, financial markets, man-made disasters, nuclear power plants, Cyber security and privacy issues, IT challenges and so many more. It’s a steep unending list of uncertainties and areas in which the risk of damage plays a diabolical role. It is therefore not surprising that organizations and enterprises spend a bulk of money in having resilient Risk management systems and individuals are also geared to hedge their risks through various means. It’s made us proactive enough to design frameworks on how to assemble the society in the perfect dealing order…

So, who is a Risk Taker?

Coombs’ theory postulates that each person has an idyllic risk level and that in choosing among lotteries with equal expectations the person will select the lottery that is closest to his/her ideal risk level. So, the subject of risk taking as not totally evaded from the act of decision making.

A risk taker is an individual who simply takes risk.

They are always very practical in their decision-making patterns, they usually leverage on facts and irrationally come to terms with their plans. They would rather play all the scenarios in their head before putting down a blue print of it.

They are born self-critics who try the path and road less travelled. They don’t care the consequences of their results in the first 5mins of thoughts conviction. They see a path, believe in it and give it a go, even despite failing at several attempts towards the same goal. They don’t give up and they always create solutions; because they always find new ways of doing the same thing but smarter and in many cases, faster and pleasing.

My favourite line from a risk taker is ‘I just went with my guts’

Just like Captain Joe Glass from the movie ‘Hunter Killer’ who never gave his US sub Navy Seals the authorization to fire back at the Russians. It was almost going to be a disaster if the Russian war ship had not defended them. But really, that was a major risk taker.

Some famous risk takers are: Bill gates, Warren Buffett, Donald Trump, Henry Ford, Richard Branson, Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos,Jack Ma etc

And what does it mean to be a Risk Tamer?

A risk tamer may either be a risk taker or not, this is just an individual that is confronted with an inherent or residual risk and finds an economic and effective way of analysing the risk, evaluating and controlling it; by transferring the risk, accepting it or mitigating it.

This is what life really is all about, either you are managing an active spare tyre on the road or you are trading just one at a time basket of volatility ETFs (exchange-traded fund). A risk tamer develops a methodological approach to dealing with their circumstances and soon moves from high risk points to low risk points.

They are also fast thinkers and would usually use the line.

‘I saw it coming and I just had to pull it down’.

They are strategic in every way and will always pass for making the wrong decisions at a go. Their businesses last longer, and they are usually employed by risk takers to help them manage their risks or organizations.

Some famous risk tamers are: Condoleezza Rice, Larry page, Hillary Clinton, Henry Ford, Larry Ellison, Jeff Bezos etc.

To sum it up, as an individual, you should evaluate yourself and proactively make yourself someone who knows how to manage the diverse existing risks, because it is really only then, you know when to take the ‘said’ risks and also know how to tame them, making you become the boss of Risk itself- what I love to call, becoming A risk manager.

So, either as an individual or an enterprise, when you know how to manage risk, you have successfully sieved your fears away from the power of innovation, by taking the risk or when you set your thresholds and actively check your risks against your productivity, positively then you understand that risk as only been a blessing.

Some famous risk managers are: Jeff Bezos, Howard Schultz, Mark Zuckerberg, Bre Pettis etc

Ref:

‘A Theory of Risk’ by Alexander Pollastek & Amos Tvers