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8.2 – Hacking Process

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The process of ethical hacking can be divided into five distinct phases. An ethical hacker follows procedures similar to those of a malicious attacker. The phase to gain, and maintain access to a computer system, is alike no matter what the hacker’s aims are. Below are the five phases which are generally followed by a […]

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8.1 – Hacking Business

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Hackers can be divided into three groups: White Hat: Ethical Hacker (Good Guy) Black Hat: Malicious Hacker (Bad Guy) Gray Hat – Depends on the situation, Good or Bad hacker. White Hat Hackers: These are the ethical hackers, known as good guys, who use their hacking skills for protective purposes. Often, white hat hackers are […]

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8.0 – Basics of Hacking

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[Though this section looks similar to some portions in the Foundation of Cybersecurity section, the focus of the contents is entirely different] Hacking is the practice of changing a computer software or hardware to achieve a goal outside of the creator’s unique purpose. Generally, people who are engaged in activities like hacking are called hackers. […]

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Nigeria’s Best Hope

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The coat of arm of Nigeria

Nigeria has a weak link in our aspirations for development. That link is the duopoly in our political system. APC and PDP have now become political corporations structured to ensure their survivals and dominance irrespective of the quality of their products. Provided their immediate stakeholders are fine, the very customers they are supposed to serve – the Nigerian people – do not matter. So, just as in markets, they are anti-competitive because they are duopolists.

The difference between APC and PDP is the same between half-dozen and six. Practically, there is none. It is all business for the politicians. With no core beliefs and no clear distinctions, the parties and the players are indistinguishable.  For them, it is one thing: “permanent interest, no permanent enemy” and that means no permanent core values. That is unfortunate. APC may be young on registration forms, but the members are as old as legions in PDP.

Understanding politics is the best way to read markets, because politics affects markets. In short, politics is the economy as no economy can exist without its politics. In Nigeria, the season has started, and the jockeying has begun, for 2019 elections. Most APC Senators who were in PDP have indicated they would march with former President Obasanjo as he launches a new movement in few days. PDP members looking for new lives are also coming along. Do not be deceived: nothing is changing because the actors are still the same people.

I am not going to ask anyone to join the fray because politics in Nigeria is extremely turbulent. You need to be normalized before you can become a winner. Yes, the party structures demand acceptance of their rules of engagement before the beatification. But where you can, now is the time to begin the discovery. Nigeria needs new ideas and new people in the political arena. What we have now right now is not working.

Sample of political parties in Nigeria (Source: Punch)

Yes, just as in markets, duopoly is never really good. You have these two dominant players who are more interested in their own gains than their customers. In the political industry, the customers are the voters – the Nigerian people. For Nigeria to innovate, we would need a redesign, and get out of the stasis we have found ourselves in this duopoly.

Yet, in the midst of the quagmire, Nigeria could have a future and a very good political party which does not need to be a party. That party is the hope of the Independent Candidacy which the APC restructuring committee has suggested.

Independent candidacy: … the committee still recommends that the party should support the demand for widening the political space by allowing for independent candidates. We believe that this will make the political party more honest.

The fact is simple: if we can allow the modification of the constitution to allow independent candidates in our political systems, you would see some pressures on the duopoly. The very fact that a Lagos banker could come home, and contest an election, would make the party gatekeepers irrelevant. If the man or woman has been good, and known in the community, nothing would stop victory.  Independent Candidacy would make it possible for contestants to avoid the same people they have despised (ideologically), at least in local elections, and go out and win, for the good of the nation. We have to find a way to make that Independent Candidacy part of the law of the land because that is our best political party, if we hope to recover the soul of Nigeria, from APC and PDP.

That is how markets work; when you have a duopoly, the only way to fix the market imperfection is to enable new entrants. I am very confident that the National Assembly would allow that to happen. By having new entrants, you can improve the quality of the product, through competition. But it does not have to be just new political parties; independent candidacy would be the best for competition, as it reduces the burden for people with great ideas. We should demand for it to be!

9Mobile’s “Hidden Things” and Zero Returns for Spectrum Wireless

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The Guardian has a nice piece where it chronicled the evolution of 9Mobile including a prediction that Teleology Holdings, promoted by pioneer MTN Nigeria boss (Adrian Wood), is likely to take over 9Mobile. The company had submitted a bid of more than $500 million, at least $200 million, ahead of Smile Communications, the second highest bidder. Others like Globacom and Helios did not bother to submit any financial bid after their successful technical bids. Airtel had already noted that they saw many “hidden things” which were not revealed initially.

Bharti Airtel later came out to claim that too many “hidden things” were not revealed about the health of the troubled telecommunications company.Indeed, in the process leading to the final round of bidding, one of the shareholders in Etisalat, Spectrum Wireless, came out to demand for its return on investment, claiming that after investing about $35 million in the telecommunications firm, it was yet to get any return. The firm went to the court and gots an injuction quashing the CBN-led interim board. A Federal High Court, Lagos had on January 12 nullified the appointment of the interim board for 9Mobile. Justice Ibrahim Buba made the order based on an application by Spectrum Wireless Communication Ltd, which invested $35million in EMTS/Etisalat in 2009.

The report notes that Barclays Africa is now waiting for Teleology to back its bid with cash. So, if all goes according to plan, Teleology would take over 9Mobile for about $500 million. I am not sure how that amount would keep the cash-challenged telco operating; it has debts obligations with banks in the neighborhood of $600 million. Sure, it is possible there would be an equity play, with the banks keeping some equities besides the cash. In other words, even if Teleology wires the $500 million, the debts cannot be fully retired [yes, more than $500 million is unbounded; but we would work with $500 million]. Indeed, there are many things we do not know, and some options may not really make sense. Any buyer must still invest money to deepen the competitive capabilities of the fourth-largest mobile network operator, at least to keep its 17 million customers, and hold its 12% market share.

Smile team (source: African Telecom)

Zero Value for $35 Million Investment since 2009

Spectrum Wireless had gone to court, claiming that 9Mobile had misrepresented facts in the constitution of the new board. The court ruled in its favor.

“The motion for stay is struck out having set aside the order. The respondent shall reverse all steps taken by it since the order was a nullity,”? the ruled.The order nullified the appointment of Dr. Joseph Nnana of the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) as chairman, Boye Olusanya as managing director, Mrs. Funke Ighodaro as chief financial officer, Seyi Bickersthet and Ken Igbokwe as members of the board of EMTS.

The key thing is that since Spectrum invested $35 million, it had not received any value. In other words, no dividend has been paid by the old Etisalat Nigeria or the new 9Mobile. Unless the company reinvested its profit, the implication is that 9Mobile (or old Etisalat NG) had not made any profit. Without profit, there would not be any dividend.

The Fourth Player

If they sell 9Mobile for $500 million, the Mubadala Development Company of the United Arab Emirates, the former largest shareholder, could justify its decision to write-off Etisalat Nigeria now. In other words, if the telco owned around $600 million, which it is required to pay, this new amount solidifies that decision to walk out. 9Mobile just lost at least $100 million of its value (based on the minimum outstanding debts), and if Mubadala Development Company had injected the new funds, this market-driven pricing efficiency would have been masked.

It is going to be extremely hard for any player that picks up this entity that is not Glo, Airtel or MTN. Being #4 in any wireless market is challenging. Number 4s rarely make money because the larger ones usually use scale to offer discounts which cripple the smaller players. I had expected an existing operating telco to take over. But it seems they developed cold feet when they saw 9Mobile books, as Airtel noted.

Finally, this game may just be starting. If the court follows through for Spectrum, this episode would have to be restated because even the Board in the eyes of the court was constituted illegally. Yes, as the court ruled, “[t]he respondent shall reverse all steps taken by it since the order was a nullity,” you can count that nothing has happened. Teleology would be extremely careless to wire funds for 9Mobile under that uncertainty. But if all holds, the winner here is Teleology because I see flipping as most markets rarely accommodate profitable #4 wireless operators.