The United States has imposed tariffs on imports of one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, as reported by the Financial Times, citing a July 31, 2025, letter from U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP). These bars are now classified under a customs code subject to levies, reversing expectations that they would be exempt.
The tariff, part of reciprocal measures by the Trump administration, includes a 39% rate on Swiss goods, significantly impacting Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refining hub. Switzerland exported $61.5 billion in gold to the U.S. in the year ending June 2025, with approximately $24 billion now potentially subject to tariffs.
This has disrupted global bullion flows, with Swiss refineries halting or reducing shipments due to the new costs and uncertainty. Gold futures in New York surged to a record high of $3,534.10 per ounce on August 8, 2025, with December contracts trading at a $100+ premium over spot prices, which remained near $3,400.
The move has sparked market turmoil, raised concerns about the U.S. futures market (Comex), and could affect global gold trade, including indirect impacts on markets like India. There’s speculation the ruling may be challenged legally, and it’s unclear if larger 400-ounce bars, common in London, will also face tariffs.
Switzerland, the world’s largest gold refining hub, processes around 70% of global gold and exported $61.5 billion in gold to the U.S. in the year ending June 2025, with roughly $24 billion now subject to tariffs. The 39% tariff on one-kilogram and 100-ounce gold bars, critical for the U.S. Comex futures market, makes exporting these bars economically unviable, as noted by the Swiss Precious Metals Association.
Swiss refiners, who typically earn slim margins (a few dollars per ounce) for recasting gold, face significant financial strain. The tariff could halt exports to the U.S., disrupting the global flow of physical gold, as Switzerland serves as a key intermediary between markets like London and New York.
Impact on Trade Balance and U.S.-Swiss Relations
The U.S. justifies the tariffs by citing Switzerland’s $48 billion trade surplus, driven largely by gold exports ($36 billion in Q1 2025 alone). However, the Swiss National Bank and analysts argue that gold should be excluded from trade balance calculations, as it is processed rather than produced, distorting economic metrics. The tariff, one of the highest among developed nations, has strained U.S.-Swiss trade relations.
Swiss efforts to negotiate a lower rate (e.g., 10-15% like the EU or UK) have been unsuccessful, with President Karin Keller-Sutter unable to secure a meeting with Trump. The KOF Swiss Economic Institute estimates that the 39% tariff could reduce Swiss GDP by 0.3% to 0.6% over the next year if sustained, with non-gold sectors like watches, machinery, and chocolate bearing the brunt.
Swiss manufacturers warn of tens of thousands of jobs at risk, particularly in export-reliant industries. The Swissmem manufacturing association called the tariffs “economically incomprehensible,” noting that every second franc in the Swiss economy comes from foreign trade. Swiss goods in the U.S. will become significantly more expensive compared to EU (15% tariff) or UK (10% tariff) imports, reducing competitiveness.
For example, luxury watchmakers like Breitling may raise prices or accept lower margins, with some firms already furloughing employees. While pharmaceuticals are currently exempt, a pending U.S. Section 232 investigation could impose tariffs up to 200%, threatening Switzerland’s $35 billion pharma export sector.
The Swiss franc, already up 11% against the dollar in 2025, faces pressure as tariffs weaken export sectors. This could exacerbate deflationary trends, as seen in Switzerland’s return to deflation in May 2025, prompting the Swiss National Bank to cut interest rates to zero. Switzerland’s neutrality and role as a global gold hub are under strain.
The Swiss government is pursuing dialogue, proposing increased U.S. LNG imports to offset the trade deficit, but Trump’s focus on reducing the $40 billion U.S. trade deficit remains a hurdle. Switzerland is pivoting to diversify trade, particularly toward Asia (e.g., India’s growing luxury market), and deepening EU ties to mitigate U.S. market losses.
Swiss firms like Roche and Novartis are also investing $50 billion in the U.S. by 2030 to hedge against potential pharma tariffs. The tariffs impose a “rising risk premium” on Swiss financial assets, potentially weakening the Swiss equity market and franc. Investors are advised to overweight gold and Swiss real estate as safe-haven assets.
While the gold refining industry’s direct economic impact is modest, its role in global trade and Switzerland’s trade surplus amplifies the tariffs’ effects. The Swiss government and businesses are adapting through diversification, dialogue, and furlough programs, but the high tariff rate—compared to lower rates for the EU and UK—could cost Switzerland 0.3-0.6% of GDP and strain its export-driven economy.
