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Global Economic Outlook – Where Things Stand, One Year After Our Predictions

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We made some statements last June in our old blog, Nkpuhe, about the global economic outlook. We are re-publishing that to help you evaluate out analytical rigor. Where we get the call right, we put Green, where not Red, where the date or event not firmed up, we leave as Black.

 

I maintain my prediction that the asset bubble fueled by many governments across the globe through financial stimuli may come to hurt the global economy within the next two years. From China to US; Brazil to EU nations, we will witness more troubles. I have this confidence that we are on economic life support and things are not really working out as the earnings seem to suggest.

 

For Brazil, 2011 will be a very challenging time. Their high growth rate will potentially catch up with them. The economy cannot continue to grow at its present rate when most of the world economies are marginally growing. There is risk that Brazil will produce more than they can profitably sell internationally. Yes, they can produce more coffee and other materials than the world is ready to buy.

 

Also, if they continue to grow at this present GDP growth rate where the Q1 was 9%, Brazil will burst in 2012. Some of their firms will look for international raw materials and may not find them. That will force an immediate contraction that will result to layoffs in Brazil. Layoffs could precipitate to turmoil with loan defaults.

 

Please understand that moving from 0.2% contraction in 2009 to 2010 Q1 9% GDP growth is a great achievement in Brazil.  But this came largely via government incentives and new demand on exports along with more accessible credits. The reality is that the economy could overheat resulting to inflation and possible bubble. The capacity of this nation to rein on inflation will be very important in the short term development in Brazil.

 

Think about Brazil hyper-growth this way: they need 1000 tractors and their trading partners can supply 700 because of their own economies; Brazil must then have to re-adjust and that process can cause trouble. I have heard that some farmers could not harvest their products because they could not get enough tools delivered on time from abroad.

 

The preparation of World Cup and Olympic present two reasons to pump money into the Brazilian economy; nevertheless, the economy must have to look at inflation. For Brazil to avert crises in 2011, it must slow down and raise interest rates in this or next quarter.

 

The world has passed through a recession that hammered on stocks, commodities and real estates. The next one if governments do not curtail the impending asset bubble will affect bonds-sovereign, municipal and corporate. The reason is that increasingly investors are getting worried on sovereign debt over corporate debt.

 

Nkpuhe has predicted that a leading EU nation will leave the monetary within five years. We stand by this prediction.

 

We also predict that in the next fifteen years, the challenge of American immigration system will not be preventing illegal immigrants from coming into America but preventing an exodus of ambitious and talented foreigners who will be going home from US. Nkpuhe thinks that many Latin American origins will be leaving US as Brazil continues its upward movement (again, if it can manage it). India is going to hit equilibrium where Indians in Americans will not see a major difference between working in India and America. The same will apply to Chinese. It is going to be a time of unprecedented emigration of bright and intelligent workforce that powers the American nation. If the Congress is awake enough, now is the time to play to ensure that does not happen.

 

History teaches us that the most important factor that defines immigration is the economy. People will move to where they think they will get the best of life. It makes sense that if China topples US as the largest economy by GDP in years, more people will be moving to China. After all, Chinese has lead in at least six centuries in the last ten.

 

According to Moody’s, the US government could lose its pristine AAA credit rating. That is a very bad thing and that will cause fundamental changes in the monetary policy across US. We are living on borrowed time with a stimulus backed life support. But the dangers have not been averted as the root causes of the problems remain. Our instruments to manage risks are very poor; developed for the industrial economy and too weak for the knowledge economy.  Governments must fund new tools to help understand the global economy.

 

The next crises will be the private educational loans which are leading the subprime educational loans to people that are even homeless. This market is small, but it will not help in no small measure the government that backs these loans and banks that provide the rest. We foresee subprime educational loan default to be coming up in Q4 of 2011.

 

But note this: most recessions turn out to lead to great economic growths. The problem is when to define this recession has stopped and when the growth begins. This calls for us to look for signs that can indicate when the recession is over. The recession is not over. It will be over only when the government incentives and near zero interest rates are withdrawn and the economy rides on for two quarters without contraction.  If you think otherwise, let the Federal Reserve increase the interest rates; you will notice that the banks will have problems and we can get back to where we started in 2008.

 

Looking at this, one can say that I am bullish in the short-time in the global economy and bearish in long-term. I expect a major correction within the next three-five years and after that global economy will grow naturally (again, if the government does not impede). It is possible that we can continue to ride the gloom and boom in the near future based on the cushion from government incentives; nonetheless, correction will surely come. What is happening today is postponing the D-day; governments are not solving root causes of problems.

 

But in this trouble as we pointed out last week, there are opportunities. Nations can never crash into inexistence. Provided that humans are living in them, they will rise again. That was the philosophy that propelled Carlos Slim-Mexican tycoon to great wealth. He bought at the low of Mexican crises few decades ago understanding that nations can never caput. Based on that, man has to be bullish about the future and no constellation can overcome the power of man. For me, the future is deep into the future, after some corrections in the mid-future.

 

Think about this: Greek can still borrow even at this their precarious conditions.  And they can borrow at reasonable rate compared to what some countries paid for as interests 30 years ago.  This shows that we live in an era of risk appetite and it will be insane to doubt the power of human survival. As we said last week, buy the best stocks in Greek because they will surely rise. Nations do not caput forever.  And the earth is still rotating around the Sun.

 

Finally, as more American firms continue to build their best plants and facilities in China and hire the Chinese to operate them, the technical excellence America has owned will move to China within the next two decades. In two decades, it will be the Chinese that will be teaching the Americans. By then they would have advanced on these facilities.

The Boom and Burst of Empires – No Nation Has The Monopoly of Staying on Top.

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Empires come, empires go.

It started with Egyptians where modern civilization all began. They blew it.

The power moved around the world like an Olympian torch. It touched old Babylon; Greece; Rome; England; …; in no special order until it became the time for Americans. Yes, we are living in the American empire-the indisputable all powerful nation whom when its president sneezes, the world awakes.

Think about it: knowledge has always correlated with economic power. In the time of the Pharaohs, we knew they had the best philosophers. Most of the wisest men were in Egypt. They had technology and were the best farmers. Around that River Nile, they invented some of the best ideas on geometry in their quest to conquer hunger.

We had the Greeks. Remember the Aristotle, The Socrates and all those big names they taught us in Philosophy courses in first year of college (at least in Nigeria). These legends created knowledge and made Greek symbols universal means of mathematical communication.

In the golden decades of industrial revolution, there were the Oxford and Cambridge.  Those good days, British lads were encouraged to study science, medicine and engineering. Soon afterwards, they had better ideas. They started transforming the best British schools to the seat of Law and Philosophy. And the industrial revolution lost steam.

Finally, the torch went to Americans. But it was not an accident. Right from independence in 1776 when American patriots defeated the British, they had ambitions. Immediately, the Yankees adopted and implemented policies that would take them to that glory- to become the shining city on the hill and most prosperous nation on earth.

While researching my recent book last year, I noticed that the Scottish economist Adam Smith had proposed for the Americans to focus on raw materials and agriculture. He was of the opinion and based on the fact that America was just a plantation then, that the US had that nonsense comparative advantage to be a leader in commodity. Hell No, the Americans refused.

Rather, they went ahead and created the best innovation engine in the world through inventing capitalism on the tripod of citizens, business and governments. They knew that without technology, there is no competition and to overtake the British, they pushed resources into technology creation and infrastructural development.  While not, this is a country of doers; they had the future of mankind in their hands.

They created technologies after technology; feat after feat. We had the transistor and Bells Lab was nothing but innovation pipeline. Their universities began to innovate. Johns Hopkins introduced the first graduate school in US. It also modernized medical study. Harvard invented business education.

Their national labs were on the move. The citizens had this can do attitude. The government was dreaming big. America was running, never walking. And science was really cool to most of their lads.

But shortly after the death of President Kennedy whose vision that man must set foot on the moon was accomplished in late 1960s, America went into partial hibernation. Those same theories they rejected from Adam Smith, they now embraced them.   And lawyers and bankers became the highest paid in this democracy. Engineers dare not because they lose jobs as gamblers playing in Las Vegas casinos. Engineering was not really fun anymore because it gives fairly average pay.

People, we still have the national labs and the research institutes in US, but the urgency and energy that existed in the good old days has waned. Either it is the Congress or the trade policies or the transcending attitude of piling debts by the citizens, many things have changed.

For me the greatest challenge came with the whole idea of creating shareholders value and building wealth at Wall Street. The worship of Wall Street was fundamental in thinking short time and eroding the brutal pragmatism that existed in some of the policies and directions both government and firms took early in the life of America.

Why not, the leaders are mainly lawyers, few are engineers and scientists; scenario very close to the end of the industrial revolution where law was enshrined as the greatest of profession by the British. From commerce to culture, these modern leaders have reinvented America.

And we have got celebrities that speak to government though they could not finish high school. Kids do not know the technology titans and legends like Bill Gates, Larry Ellison, Page, Brin, Bill Joy, Michael Dell; they are ordinary people. Rather, they worship the likes of Paris Hilton, Britney Spears, and co.

Ironically, the world does not harbor a vacuum. The US has lost steam; someone has to fill the void. After all, it was exactly the same thing they did to Britain. In that new place Bill Gates is seen as a demi-god because he created not a company, but an industry. Without Mr Gates, there will be no IT industry.

Toward Online Freedom in Sub-Sahara Africa

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This is an email from Google on online freedom in sub-Sahara Africa.  We just produced it in entirety.

 

Our mission as a company is to organize the world’s information and make it universally accessible and useful – it is therefore in our interest for free exchange of information to flourish online. As access to online information continues to grow in Africa, and in the aftermath of the recent uprisings in the Middle East and North Africa, we are beginning to see governments crack down on dissent in order to prevent free expression both online and offline. There is a growing need to raise awareness about the complex issues surrounding new technology and social media tools that are used for activism.

 

 

These growing concerns led Google to partner with Global Voices and the Committee to Protect Journalists to host journalists and bloggers from over a dozen African countries for a workshop in Johannesburg, South Africa about online freedom of expression. The aim was to give participants an opportunity to share their strategies and best practices for safeguarding free expression and the right to access to information.

 

 

The workshop on June 8th and 9th included a number of expert presenters who shared their knowledge with the group. The participants learned about the status of freedom of expression in the region, security risks arising from using technology, and tools and tactics that can be used to mitigate some of the risk. Presenters also shared case studies on covering elections and advocacy campaign tactics, as well as practical tutorials on how to secure information online. Most importantly, the attendees took advantage of the opportunity to get to know each other, compare notes about the political climates under which they operate, and bond over their similar (and often lonely) struggles. For many, it was the first time that they had the chance to meet other journalists and bloggers who work in similar environments across Africa.

 

 

The workshop was an eye-opener to all: from learning about just how vulnerable working online can make an individual, to discovering the sheer breadth of online tools that exist to help them do their jobs. During the last workshop session each of the participants stood up and explained how they wanted to move forward, as well their takeaways from the two days. The most telling question that arose more than any other… “So when can we do this again?”

The Boom and Burst of Empires – Is America in Innovation Decline?

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Welcome the Chinese. It is very interesting. The very nation that invented transistor and integrated circuit now imports nearly all its major computer hardware from China.  That nation is America. The storied IBM ‘innovated’ and moved into services and sold to Lenovo.  IBM would not have done that if there is no Wall Street pressure. That is why what matter is the firm and not the nation.

 

And the whole argument that when you outsource, you create better paying jobs in America could make sense, but there are strategic positions that cannot be replaced. Manufacturing, producing, assembling real things in America was vital to developing a generation of technical leaders that improved upon those processes. When those processes are outsourced, Americans lose that edge because many new minds never get to work on them. They lose competitive edge. No wonder, China was able to shrink a century old of innovation into about 20 years. How? US gave them all, easily and freely and prevented their own citizens from advancing.

 

Understand this: the fact that there are few plants where many boys could do internship on computer assembly in US means many will never experience the real thing. Compared to their colleagues in China, they are disadvantaged in this area for the next generation innovation.

 

These observations are intangibles and cannot be replicated.  I have estimated that America loses $100b in form of these intangibles yearly as its companies continue to outsource and globalize while denying the experience opportunity to new generation of Americans.

 

Why not? You will read some analysis promoting service industry, saying that it employs more people than the manufacturing sector.  But nations do not exist for creating today’s job. You can create 10 jobs by trading on silica, the sand that is used to make microprocessor. And that silica can sell for $1. The person that makes that microprocessor can have a factor of 2000 profit on it. Not having the plants at home will hurt this nation.

 

It is not a permanent problem. America is still the world leader. But it has lost its total independence in leadership to act because of unusual kind of politics. Its military power is nothing but its economic power. Its dollar is nothing but its economy. Any day it loses this economic power, it will lose all.

 

This nation invented solar energy technology, but now China dominates that in the world. This shows that inventing an idea without leading the innovation does not make much sense. While America gives us great technologies at near zero benefits, it focuses on services where they get marginally nothing. All we read today is emphasis on services, without anyone understanding that without factories, there is no service.

 

Africa should learn some key issues from what has put America at the point of losing the torch to China. In the last few decades, America has pursued a system of consumerism, where the more the citizens can consume, the better is the country. I was shocked when I came to the country as I saw real efforts by governments to entice people to buy, spend, and buy and spend without actually encouraging them to save. The problem is that there is a culture where kids like malls over libraries, in most cases and can spend a whole day in malls shopping with money they do not have.

 

This contrasts to the old America where production was seen as a pathway to wealth and prosperity. I recalled an article I wrote as an undergraduate student for a topical issue in a local radio station. That was in 1998, and I was Editor-in-Chief and Publisher of FUTO Bubbles- a campus newsmagazine I founded in college. I was naïve them, but I articulated a case that production over consumption will always result to a great nation.

 

While American capitalism is excellent, it cannot exist without regulation. The US has lost so much steam through the boom and bust as it tends to hurt them more whenever it happens. Lack of strong regulation hurts US than it helps them. Without regulation, you accumulate cents, but when there are problems, you lose dollars.

 

Worse still, the nation has this illusion that packing debt in dollars has no major consequences. After all, they control the dollar. Unfortunately, if the global currency changes from dollar, US could be under severe stress. It is not a great strategy to allow China to mortgage the future of your kids. It is bad for national security and financial strength.

 

In all and all, I have wished I can manage a ministry in Africa. Africa has the best window to develop now as I predict within twenty years, US will get out of many of the free trade agreements it has entered. This trade has made US a nation of companies and not of country as it benefits its firms and not the country in most cases.

 

Those treaties have burnt America badly as we all know free trade is not a win-win. Then it will be very difficult to trade with US. Unfortunately, it may not matter much as China will be the centre of the universe then.

 

We love America because it does one thing to Africa no nation has ever done: it trains the highest pool of Africa’s best leaders. From Nnamdi to Nkrumah to Sirleaf, America has offered Africa a lot and we want US to continue to lead the world because it pays us most. Go to Harvard, MIT and their best schools and you will be amazed on the number of Africans on scholarships. In Britain, you must pay; in US, your brain buys you a scholarship. That is why we want US to do well because we get most out of it.

Chinese Dawning’s Nebulae is the #2 Fastest Supercomputer In The World – US Cray Still Holds The Record

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As of today, we reconfirm that the Chinese are on the roll call and hall of fame of the fastest supercomputers on earth. The United States through the legendary Jaguar Cray remains on top. The EU comes in 5th through the German IBM Jugene.

 

Of course, while the Chinese can claim that Nebulae is their machine at the system level, most of the parts are American’s.  Even the EU’s Jugene is an IBM beast, which is also an America engineering.

 

In essence, the U.S tops the five top supercomputers on earth, at the fundamental level of engineering.

The list of five top supercomputers is below:

#1 Cray, Jaguar, 1.759 petaflops, USA

#2 Dawning, Nebulae, 1.271 petaflops, China

#3 IBM, Roadrunner, 1.042 petaflops, USA

#4 Cray, Kraken XT5, 0.832 petaflops, USA

# IBM, Jugene, 0.826 petaflops, Germany

Source: Bloomberg Businesweek

 

China hopes to focus on using mainly Chinese made chips for its defense project that depend on supercomputers. In the next ten years, China will surely make the fastest computer on earth.