Polymarket, the decentralized prediction market platform where users bet on real-world outcomes using cryptocurrency.
As of early September 2025, the market titled “French confidence vote fails?”—which resolves “Yes” if French Prime Minister François 8 confidence vote in the National Assembly fails to pass—shows a probability of approximately 98% for failure (or 94% in some recent snapshots, indicating a high consensus among traders). This reflects the platform’s crowd-sourced odds, derived from trading volume exceeding $100,000 in related French political markets.
Bayrou, appointed as PM in late July 2025 amid France’s ongoing political fragmentation following President Emmanuel Macron’s 2024 snap elections, called for this confidence vote on August 25, 2025.
It’s tied to his proposed 2026 austerity budget, which aims to cut €44 billion ($51 billion) in spending to address France’s ballooning deficit (projected at 5.4-5.8% of GDP in 2025, well above the EU’s 3% limit). Key measures include freezing welfare and pension spending, not adjusting tax brackets for inflation, and potentially scrapping two public holidays—unpopular moves that have unified opposition.
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France’s National Assembly is deeply divided into three main blocs with no absolute majority: Centrist/pro-government alliance (Macron’s Ensemble and allies): ~210 seats. Left-wing New Popular Front (NFP, including Socialists, Greens, and far-left La France Insoumise): ~180-200 seats, all pledged to vote against. Far-right National Rally (RN): ~123 seats, also opposing due to the budget’s impact on working-class voters.
To pass, Bayrou needs at least 289 votes (simple majority of 577 total seats). With ~353 opposition votes already committed, failure is near-certain unless the Socialists (66 seats) abstain or switch sides—unlikely, as their leaders (e.g., Boris Vallaud) have publicly rejected the plan. Even abstentions might not save it, as the threshold could drop but still fall short.
If the vote fails: Bayrou’s government resigns immediately. Macron must appoint a new PM (his third in under a year), but the hung parliament makes stability elusive. This could trigger a budget stalemate, forcing a provisional 2025 budget rollover into 2026, delaying reforms and risking EU fines or social unrest (protests are already planned for September 10).
Further escalation might lead to another snap election by late 2025, with Polymarket odds at ~39% for an election call by December 31. Polymarket’s 98% odds align with traditional analysts and bookmakers, who see this as a “high-risk gamble” by Bayrou to force clarity but likely backfiring. Related markets show:
96% chance Bayrou is out as PM by September 30, 2025. 8% chance Macron leaves office in 2025 (low, as impeachment odds are just 9%). The news has already rattled markets: France’s CAC 40 index dropped ~2% on August 26, French bank stocks fell sharply, and the 10-year bond yield hit 3.52% (highest since March 2025), signaling investor fears of prolonged instability.
The euro weakened, and spreads on French vs. German bonds widened, echoing 2024’s post-election turmoil. Broader Eurozone growth (already sluggish at 1.2% for France in 2024) could suffer if gridlock persists, potentially pushing debt servicing costs to become France’s largest budget item by 2027.
This situation underscores France’s chronic political deadlock since the 2024 elections, where Macron’s dissolution backfired, creating a “three-way split” parliament. Polymarket’s prediction markets, while not infallible, often outperform polls by incentivizing accurate forecasting through financial stakes—here, bettors are overwhelmingly wagering on failure, backed by opposition statements and parliamentary math.
