The odds of the U.S. Senate passing the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act have fallen sharply on Polymarket, with traders now pricing in just an 18% chance of the legislation becoming law ahead of a critical Senate vote.
The figure, reflected in roughly $14.8 million of trading volume on the contract, marks a steep decline from peaks above 80% earlier in the year and underscores growing skepticism that Congress can complete the long-sought crypto market structure legislation before the calendar runs out.
The decline reflects growing uncertainty over whether lawmakers can reach agreement on the long-awaited cryptocurrency market structure bill, raising fresh concerns about the timeline for establishing clearer rules for the digital asset industry.
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The Clarity Act aims to end years of regulatory ambiguity by creating a clear statutory framework for digital assets. It would define categories of tokens, assign primary oversight of digital commodities to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission while leaving securities under the Securities and Exchange Commission, and establish registration requirements for exchanges, brokers, and other intermediaries.
Supporters argue the measure would provide the legal certainty needed for banks, asset managers, and blockchain companies to expand custody, staking, tokenization, and other services in the United States.
The bill cleared the House in July 2025 with a bipartisan 294-134 vote and advanced out of the Senate Banking Committee in May 2026 on a 15-9 vote that included two Democratic senators.
A merged Senate text combining work from the Banking and Agriculture committees was released in July. Despite that progress, the legislation has stalled over unresolved differences, most prominently an ethics provision that would restrict the president, vice president, and members of Congress from issuing or sponsoring digital assets.
Democrats have pressed for stronger language and enforcement mechanisms, while some Republicans and the White House have resisted provisions they view as overly restrictive or politically targeted. Other sticking points include illicit-finance safeguards and treatment of stablecoin rewards.
Earlier this month, U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Paul Atkins has expressed confidence that the Digital Asset Market CLARITY Act could advance through the Senate this month.
Atkins reportedly told Fox Business that he anticipates and hopes the CLARITY Act will pass the Senate and eventually reach President Donald Trump’s desk for signature.
In line with this, Senate Majority Leader John Thune filed a cloture motion that sets up a procedural vote on September 15. Cloture requires 60 votes to limit debate and move the bill forward. With Republicans holding a narrow majority, the measure needs substantial Democratic support to clear that threshold.
Even if cloture succeeds, lawmakers would still face a compressed schedule of remaining legislative days before the November midterms, potential House-Senate reconciliation of differing texts, and the need for a presidential signature—all before December 31.
The collapse in Polymarket odds reflects these calendar and political constraints more than any single rejection of the bill’s core concepts. Large “No” positions have accumulated in recent weeks, and earlier high expectations have steadily eroded as deadlines slipped past the August recess.
U.S. Senator Cynthia Lummis issued a stark warning this week stating that failure to pass the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act during the current Congress would push the next realistic opportunity for comprehensive cryptocurrency market structure legislation to 2030.
In a post on X, Lummis stated,
“If the Clarity Act doesn’t pass this Congress, the next real opportunity to bring market structure legislation back up is 2030. That’s years of jobs, investment, and tax revenue we can avoid squandering if we finish this now.”
The Wyoming senator has framed the bill not merely as crypto regulation but as a decision about whether the United States leads the next financial system or cedes ground to other countries.
Industry observers note that failure to enact the Clarity Act in 2026 would likely push comprehensive market structure legislation further into the future, leaving the sector reliant on agency interpretations and enforcement actions that can shift with administrations.
However, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has signaled it is prepared to develop its own cryptocurrency regulations should Congress fail to enact the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act.
The SEC’s readiness to act independently underscores the agency’s willingness to step in amid legislative delays. Under current leadership, the commission has indicated support for structured rulemaking that aligns with broader policy goals of balancing innovation with investor protection.
Looking ahead, the September 15 vote will provide the next clear signal. Success on cloture would reopen a narrow path, failure would effectively end realistic prospects for 2026 enactment. For now, prediction markets are pricing the remaining obstacles as formidable.