As Osun State inches towards the 2026 governorship election, the political chessboard is already taking shape. While party names and candidate declarations often dominate headlines, a deeper look at the forces behind the scenes reveals where the real power lies. Our analysis of influence based on political endorsements, support groups, and internal party movements shows that this will be more than just a two-party contest. It will be a battle of competing factions, power brokers, and shifting loyalties.
Adeleke’s Grip: Incumbency as Central Power
At the heart of it all stands Governor Ademola Adeleke, whose endorsement ranks as the most influential force in the current political conversation. This is no surprise. As the sitting governor, Adeleke’s ability to shape outcomes within the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and influence public perception is unmatched. His endorsement is not just symbolic. It signals to grassroots structures and elite players alike where the wind might blow. In Osun’s political culture, the sitting governor holds the reins on everything from party unity to resource flow, and this power is being felt early.
Exhibit 1: Affiliation network of Osun 2026 governorship election
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Oyetola and the Struggle for APC’s Soul
On the other side of the aisle, former governor Gboyega Oyetola remains a dominant figure. The data shows that support for Oyetola is the single most powerful force within the All Progressives Congress (APC) ecosystem [represented by node 23 in exhibit 2]. His political machine, built over years in office and sustained through loyal structures like the Ilerioluwa Progressives and various APC local groups, remains firmly intact.
However, this strength does not come without friction. Multiple groups within the APC, such as the Forum of APC Local Government Chairmen, Former Stakeholders, and regional blocs like the Osun West APC Members, also hold significant sway. This suggests that while Oyetola is still central, there is growing pressure for broader consensus or perhaps even a shift in leadership. The rise of “Consensus Candidate” [see node 4 in exhibit 1 and 2] as a top-tier influence indicates that internal negotiations are underway to avoid a bitter primary contest.
Ajibola Basiru’s Quiet Climb
Senator Ajibola Basiru emerges in this analysis as an unexpectedly strong figure. Though often seen as operating behind the scenes, his influence ranks on par with the most powerful groups and individuals. Basiru could play a critical role as a kingmaker or as a potential unifier within APC’s divided ranks. If the party aims to challenge Adeleke’s incumbency effectively, figures like Basiru will likely be the bridge-builders.
Exhibit 2: Power centrality in affiliation network of Osun 2026 governorship election
Support Groups: The New Political Middlemen
Another interesting trend is the rising relevance of support groups. Organizations like the Imole Grassroots Movement and Falex Foundation are wielding considerable influence. They are working at the intersection of politics and social engagement. Religious leaders are also emerging as important players. Primate Elijah Ayodele, for instance, features prominently in the power rankings. This reflects a wider reality in Osun politics, where religious and spiritual endorsements can shift the mood of the electorate, particularly among undecided or low-information voters.
PDP: Quiet but Coordinated
While Adeleke’s personal influence looms large, the institutional side of the PDP, represented by actors like the Osun PDP Chairman and Osun West PDP Members, also holds firm ground. These structures are not as flashy as their APC counterparts, but they appear more coordinated and less divided. If PDP manages to avoid internal splits, it could enter the race with a unified front that proves hard to beat.
Zoning, Consensus, and the Search for Unity
The concept of zoning and regional representation remains a sensitive issue, and its impact is seen in the prominence of agendas like “Osun West APC” and other geographically defined blocs. While some players are pushing for zoning equity, others are working hard to form consensus candidacies to avoid splintering the vote. The fact that “Consensus Candidate” ranks highly in influence indicates that both APC and PDP are acutely aware of the need to present unified fronts in a highly fragmented electoral space.
What This Means for 2026
The political map of Osun in 2026 will not be drawn solely by party primaries or the Independent National Electoral Commission. It is being shaped now by the interactions between power blocs, endorsements, grassroots mobilizers, and behind-the-scenes negotiators.
If Adeleke maintains control of the PDP machinery while avoiding internal rifts, he will be difficult to unseat. But if APC manages to align its various factions, particularly the Oyetola loyalists and consensus advocates, it could present a serious challenge. Figures like Ajibola Basiru may become the tipping point between a fractured party and a winning coalition.
The road to Osun 2026 is already paved with influence. Understanding who holds that influence, and how they use it, may tell us more than any campaign slogan or press release ever could.