The 2011 Prediction and the Eventual End of Blackberry

In 2011, I wrote “We understand that Blackberry is popular today in Nigeria, but Android will eclipse it within the next few months”. And then asked developers to forget Blackberry and move to Android. In that same piece, I also added another  bold statement “In the next 6 months, the number of Android devices in Nigeria will eclipse all the Apple and Blackberry combined.”

That was the time Nigeria was running on Blackberry. It was not a tough call as simple indicators made Blackberry’s position hopeless. Read the web archive here.

For the 2011 piece (available in web archive, reproduced below) which was titled “Nigerian Developers – Fasmicro says Focus on Android Platform”, we have the following predictions right:

• We wrote thus: “We understand that Blackberry is popular today in Nigeria, but Android will eclipse it within the next few months”.
  • That turned out to be completely correct. We used that conviction, based on our model, to ask Nigerian developers to move into Android from Blackberry and Windows: “Now, you are a young graduate or a freelance who wants to get into the App business. You want to know what platform to build”
• In our analysis, we focused on affordability of the product: “Another reason has to do with market. Apple and Blackberry are premium…Android gadgets are more affordable simply because you do not have to pay for any software – it is free by default”. We correctly predicted that cost will help Android adoption in Nigeria and that was what happened.
• Then we made a very bold statement:

In the next 6 months, the number of Android devices in Nigeria will eclipse all the Apple and Blackberry combined. Our studies show that customers MTN will make this possible with its advertising power and brand. Etisalat did not make much impact with Galaxy Tab because of the cost. Even myPad from Starcomms is built on Android. Of course, Fasmicro and Microscale new Ovim Plus and Ovim MiE are all Android devices. Encipher Inye and Inye 2 are also Android. They will compete against the high premium Blackberry and will surely win. The notion that iPad can do well in Nigeria is not supported by any data. It is expensive and that brand is not structured for the Nigerian market

But the news today is that Blackberry is gone: creative destruction in markets. The last innovator is always the one standing. Read the piece from Samuel

RIP Blackberry, 1999-2021. Long, long ago, all the way back in the mid-2000s, Blackberry ruled the land. You could hardly pry that sleek, curved, QWERTY-enabled device from the hands of hip executives and a certain 44th president. But alas, the Blackberry is no more. The bygone relic goes out of commission Tuesday, with Blackberry formally shutting down the phone’s operating system and software. The Blackberry obituary was written long ago, authored by rivals Apple and Google. But consider this a final goodbye to a true trendsetter. We knew thee well—and then ditched you for something better. (Fortune)

Comment on LinkedIn Feed

Comment: “1st Mover advantage, is not a sustainable advantage ”

My response: Temporary monopoly comes via first-mover but what matters is FIRST-SCALER advantage. Android scaled mobile internet better than BB and that was the issue. Irrespective of who started, what matters is this: who scales FIRST. In our program, I explained this on how Apple has NEVER pioneered any sector but is always coming later to win via massive scaling. Before iPhone, Blackberry; before iPod, Walkman; Before Apple Watch, Pebble. Keep going…

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