The Evolving Nigeria’s Economic and Human Geography; The Latent Opportunity of Uyo

McKinsey, a consultancy, thinks that Nigeria’s HUMAN geography will be rewired within two decades. Today, the tier 1 cities are Lagos, Abuja and Port Harcourt when you are planning a  “broad” growth strategy (for some sectors, those vary) within economic opportunity geography. Kano, Ibadan, Onitsha and Kaduna come along, with Aba, Ilorin and a few others tagging.

But by 2040, McKinsey thinks Lagos and Onitsha will become dominant in human geography. Onitsha, the largest market in Africa (the first wow in my secondary school Geography class, reminding me that geography could be local) is repositioning. Ibadan, Africa’s largest indigenous city (another geography class discovery) is also going to expand, marginally. But for Kaduna and Kano, Abuja will gain from both. Abuja could become one of the largest cities in Nigeria due to infrastructure which is unrivaled in Nigeria.

While I think the models for Onitsha and Lagos are right on the money, I think the report ignores the latent potency of Uyo. If Nigeria builds a deep seaport which I think Akpabio, now the senate president will make a priority, Uyo will grow massively and Onitsha could become even larger. With a deep seaport in Akwa Ibom, Uyo, Aba and Onitsha will become bigger cities for trade and commerce.

I am long on Uyo and Aba because if Ibom deep seaport takes off, more than 20% of Lagos port traffic will move to Akwa Ibom and Uyo will become super-vital to Nigeria’s economy. A container transport from Uyo to Maiduguri will cost less than Lagos to Maiduguri (a tie for Kano). So, Uyo wins to most of Northeast and NorthCentral Nigeria (east axis). May Nigeria advance and bring prosperity to all.

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