Nigeria faces a double whammy: potential oil crash, and insecurity which has cut-off most activities in the rural areas. These two vectors could potentially expire the 2025 budget and soon-to-be crafted 2026 budget even before they go mainstream. If oil price crashes, and people cannot even enter farms due to insecurity, what next? We’re getting closer to the Malthusian catastrophe and our options are narrowing.
Everyone is a victim: I shut down Zenvus due to insecurity as it was becoming dangerous to send young people to farms to deploy tech for clients. My fear was this: if a young person is kidnapped working for me, what would I tell the spouse, kids and parents? To avoid that possibility, I closed the business and moved on despite a huge contract from Rice Farmers Association of Nigeria (RIFAN).
Read Goldman Sachs on the trajectory of oil: “The prospect of global oil prices tumbling to below $40 per barrel has triggered alarm far beyond Wall Street, with fresh fears mounting in Nigeria over the fate of its fragile economy.
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“In a Monday note that underscores the vulnerability of oil-dependent nations, analysts at Goldman Sachs warned that Brent crude — the international benchmark, could fall under $40 by late 2026 in a worst-case scenario marked by a global slowdown and the collapse of OPEC+ production cuts.”
At the center of the looming crisis is the Nigerian government’s 2025 fiscal blueprint, which is built around a $75 per barrel oil benchmark. The country, still heavily reliant on crude oil exports for revenue, has projected an N14 trillion oil revenue target for 2025 — a figure that becomes a fantasy if Brent prices slide anywhere near the $40 mark.
Nigeria typically earns over 70% of its foreign exchange and about half of its government revenue from oil. With production volumes struggling to exceed 1.3 million barrels per day, well below OPEC quotas, the only way Nigeria has managed to keep its books somewhat balanced is through the elevated oil prices seen in recent years.
Nigeria’s insecurity is a huge threat and I do hope people understand how this will play on investment decisions especially outside the major cities. This problem did not begin today and cannot be fixed overnight. But our leaders must show urgency. Whenever I remember my hobby – visiting university campuses across Nigeria to teach electronics, from Sokoto to Ife, Owerri to Kano, and beyond (see photos ) and how that is IMPOSSIBLE now, I feel bad. Our past must not be more memorable than the present! We must show urgency on dealing with insecurity everywhere.
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