The Rise and Fade of Nations – The Century of China and India

A really bold call indeed: “Goldman Sachs, one of the world’s leading investment banks, has recently published a report that projects India’s economic growth over the next five decades. According to the report, India is expected to overtake the United States as the world’s second-largest economy by 2075, behind only China.”

The report estimates that India’s gross domestic product (GDP) will grow at an average annual rate of 6.2% from 2020 to 2050, and then slow down to 4.5% from 2050 to 2075. This implies that India’s GDP will increase from $2.9 trillion in 2019 to $28.5 trillion in 2050, and then to $70.2 trillion in 2075. By contrast, the US GDP will grow at an average annual rate of 1.6% from 2020 to 2050, and then decline to 1.4% from 2050 to 2075. This implies that the US GDP will increase from $21.4 trillion in 2019 to $34.1 trillion in 2050, and then to $46.3 trillion in 2075.

The United States has ruled the world since the 1880s when it overtook the UK as the world’s largest economy.  But before that, China has ruled at least 6 of the last 9 centuries economically. India itself also did marginally well within those 9 centuries before the 16th century.

The real question is: how do nations rise and fade? You can go back to empires and dynasties to get a clue. For example, at the peak of the industrial revolution, science ruled the academic world of the UK. But later, other disciplines like law became more evident in the society that the best moved into law.

At a personal level, the largest GDP will be controlled by machines. And any country which can build them will win the trophies. That has been consistent since the Pharaohs ruled the ancient world.

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