Tiger Research’s forecast that Bitcoin could reach $190,000 in Q3 2025 is based on three main catalysts: increased institutional investment, unprecedented global liquidity, and the inclusion of Bitcoin in U.S. 401(k) retirement accounts.
Their report suggests a 67% potential upside from current levels, driven by a shift toward institutional dominance in the Bitcoin market, with buying power outpacing retail activity. They highlight record-high M2 money supply across major economies and the potential for even modest 401(k) allocations to significantly boost long-term demand.
Their valuation uses an adjusted Time Value of Money (TVM) model, incorporating on-chain activity and macroeconomic conditions, setting a base price of $135,000 with multipliers for network improvements (+3.5%) and macro factors (+35%). However, they caution about short-term volatility, with on-chain indicators like MVRV-Z suggesting possible near-term corrections.
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The outcome depends on sustained institutional inflows, global liquidity trends, and macroeconomic stability. This prediction is notably bullish compared to others. For context, Standard Chartered forecasts $200,000 by year-end 2025, while VanEck predicts $180,000 with a potential 30% retracement mid-year.
More conservative estimates, like CoinDCX’s, suggest $125,000 if key support levels hold. Bitcoin’s history shows significant volatility, with rapid gains often followed by corrections, as seen in 2013 and 2021. Investors should remain cautious, as macroeconomic shifts, regulatory changes, or market sentiment could alter this trajectory.
A surge to $190K would signal a shift toward institutional investors driving Bitcoin’s price, as Tiger Research notes their buying power is outpacing retail. This could stabilize long-term growth but reduce retail influence. Such a price increase could significantly boost wealth for early adopters and institutional holders, potentially widening economic disparities unless broader adoption occurs.
A rapid rise might fuel speculative FOMO (Fear of Missing Out), attracting new retail investors but increasing the risk of a subsequent correction, as seen in past cycles (e.g., 2021’s peak and crash). Higher prices could accelerate mainstream adoption, especially if 401(k) integrations materialize, legitimizing Bitcoin as a retirement asset.
However, it may also deter use as a transactional currency due to increased value. Tiger Research cites unprecedented global M2 money supply growth as a driver. A $190K Bitcoin could reflect inflationary pressures or fiat currency devaluation, reinforcing Bitcoin’s “store of value” narrative.
A sharp price increase might prompt stricter regulations, especially if tied to retirement accounts. Governments could impose controls to mitigate systemic risks, as seen in past crypto crackdowns. A Bitcoin boom could divert capital from traditional assets like stocks or bonds, impacting broader financial markets. Conversely, a crypto market crash could destabilize portfolios with heavy crypto exposure.
Tiger Research warns of volatility, with on-chain indicators like MVRV-Z suggesting potential near-term pullbacks. A rapid climb to $190K could trigger profit-taking, leading to sharp corrections. Macro factors like interest rate hikes, geopolitical tensions, or regulatory shifts could derail the forecast.
For example, a U.S. Federal Reserve pivot to tighter policy could dampen risk-on assets like Bitcoin. The Market Value to Realized Value Z-Score measures Bitcoin’s market value relative to its realized value, indicating overvaluation or undervaluation. Tiger Research notes elevated MVRV-Z levels, suggesting Bitcoin may be nearing overbought territory.
Historically, high MVRV-Z has preceded corrections. A score closer to 1-2 supports undervaluation and room for growth, but a spike could signal a near-term top, challenging the $190K target. As of recent data, MVRV-Z is moderately high, indicating caution but not extreme overvaluation, supporting potential upside if institutional buying continues.
Hash rate measures the computational power securing the Bitcoin network, reflecting miner confidence and network health. A rising hash rate, as seen in 2025, supports long-term bullishness by indicating miner investment and network strength. Tiger Research’s +3.5% multiplier for network improvements likely ties to this.
However, a drop in hash rate (e.g., due to energy costs or regulation) could signal bearish pressure. Hash rate is near all-time highs, reinforcing network stability and supporting the bullish case. Active addresses and transaction volume reflect network usage and adoption.
Rising active addresses and transaction volume indicate growing adoption, supporting price appreciation. A stagnation or drop could undermine the $190K forecast, signaling reduced demand. On-chain activity is increasing, particularly in institutional-sized transactions, aligning with Tiger Research’s emphasis on institutional buying power.
A high proportion of Bitcoin held for over a year (as seen in 2025) suggests strong HODLing, reducing sell pressure and supporting price growth. However, if long-term holders start selling en masse (e.g., at $190K), it could trigger a correction. Over 60% of Bitcoin hasn’t moved in over a year, indicating strong conviction, which supports the bullish forecast.
The $190K forecast hinges on sustained institutional inflows, global liquidity, and 401(k) adoption, with on-chain indicators like hash rate, active addresses, and HODL Waves supporting potential upside. However, elevated MVRV-Z and historical volatility warn of short-term corrections. Investors should monitor these indicators closely, as deviations.