U.S. Oil Stocks Jump as Trump’s Venezuela Intervention Rewrites the Energy Playbook

Shares of major U.S. oil companies surged in premarket trading on Monday as investors began to price in the potential long-term consequences of Washington’s dramatic military intervention in Venezuela, a move that could eventually redraw the global oil supply map even as near-term uncertainties remain high.

Chevron led the rally, rising 6.4% by 7:40 a.m. ET, reflecting its entrenched footprint in Venezuela and perceived first-mover advantage. Exxon Mobil gained 3%, ConocoPhillips advanced 5.5%, and oilfield services heavyweight SLB climbed 8.5%, as markets reacted to the possibility of renewed access to the world’s largest proven crude reserves.

The gains followed a surprise U.S. operation over the weekend that resulted in the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, an audacious escalation that has reverberated across diplomatic, security, and energy circles. President Donald Trump has since said the United States would “run” Venezuela until a “safe, proper and judicious transition” is achieved, placing the country’s vast oil wealth at the center of Washington’s stated objectives.

Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC and holds an estimated 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, roughly 17% of the global total, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Years of mismanagement, underinvestment, and sanctions have crippled its oil industry, slashing production from about 3.5 million barrels per day in the 1970s to well under 1 million barrels per day in recent years.

Trump has made clear that reversing that decline is now a strategic priority. Speaking from his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida, he said U.S. oil companies would be encouraged to pour billions of dollars into repairing Venezuela’s “badly broken” energy infrastructure.

“Let’s start making money for the country,” Trump said, framing the intervention as both a geopolitical and economic reset.

Oil prices, however, showed only a muted response. Brent crude futures for March delivery were up 0.5% at $61.03 a barrel, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate for February delivery rose 0.6% to $57.64. The modest move underscores a key tension in the market: while Venezuela’s reserves are enormous, any meaningful increase in supply is widely seen as a long-term prospect rather than an immediate shock.

Analysts say Chevron stands out among U.S. majors as the most immediately exposed to potential upside. The company has maintained a presence in Venezuela through joint ventures even during periods of heavy sanctions, giving it institutional knowledge and operational footholds that rivals lack. Allen Good, director of equity research at Morningstar, said Chevron appears best positioned to benefit from any U.S.-backed effort to revive Venezuelan production.

At the same time, the intervention could open the door for Exxon Mobil and ConocoPhillips to re-enter the country after years on the sidelines. But Good cautioned that optimism should be tempered. Venezuela’s oil sector, he said, will require tens of billions of dollars in fresh investment to achieve meaningful production gains, and companies are unlikely to commit capital without clear regulatory and contractual frameworks.

“Oil companies will need to be cautious about deploying capital until there is greater certainty,” Good said, adding that while Chevron may be able to add incremental barrels in the near term with U.S. approval, large-scale volume increases are likely years away.

In that context, he warned, the idea of rapidly unlocking Venezuela’s oil riches remains far from assured.

Energy veterans echo that caution. Neil Atkinson, an independent analyst and former senior figure at Venezuela’s state oil company PDVSA, said restoring the industry goes far beyond reopening wells. He pointed to deep-rooted structural challenges, including weak law and order, unreliable electricity supplies, and shortages of basic goods such as food and fuel.

“If you want to get Venezuela’s oil industry back up and running, you need stability,” Atkinson said in an interview on CNBC. “That stability simply does not exist right now. A lot has to happen, and it cannot happen without the consent of the Venezuelan people.”

Atkinson also noted that Venezuela’s crude is predominantly heavy and costly to process, requiring specialized infrastructure and sustained investment. With oil prices relatively low by historical standards, he said the calculus for U.S. companies is less about short-term returns and more about long-term strategic positioning.

“For long-term strategic reasons, yes, companies would be interested,” he said. “But this is a long-term play.”

Signs of that long-term interest are already emerging. The Financial Times reported on Monday that Ali Moshiri, a former top Chevron executive, is seeking to raise $2 billion through his investment firm, Amos Global Energy Management, to kick-start Venezuelan oil projects. Moshiri told the newspaper that investor sentiment had flipped almost overnight following Maduro’s capture.

“I’ve had a dozen calls over the past 24 hours from potential investors,” Moshiri said. “Interest in Venezuela has gone from zero to 99 percent.”

That surge in interest reflects a broader market belief that Trump’s intervention, if it holds, could eventually reset the oil market by unlocking supply that has been effectively stranded for years. Greater Venezuelan output, over time, could add downward pressure on global oil prices, offering relief to consumers and energy-intensive industries while reshaping OPEC dynamics.

However, markets are balancing excitement with realism for now. The rally in oil stocks suggests investors see strategic optionality and long-term upside, not an immediate production windfall. Some analysts believe that although Venezuela represents potential energy abundance on a grand scale, turning that potential into barrels on the market will be measured in years, not weeks.