MicroStrategy now rebranded as Strategy in some contexts, but still trading as $MSTR has long been known for its aggressive Bitcoin treasury strategy, holding 649,870 BTC as of late November 2025, valued at approximately $61.7 billion at current prices around $95,000 per BTC.
The company’s stock has historically traded at a significant premium to its modified Net Asset Value (mNAV), a metric that compares the enterprise value market cap plus debt minus cash to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.
This premium—peaking at nearly 4x in late 2024—reflected investor enthusiasm for CEO Michael Saylor’s “leveraged Bitcoin” model, where equity and debt issuances funded BTC purchases, creating a virtuous cycle of accumulation and share price appreciation.
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However, mNAV has collapsed dramatically in 2025, falling below 1x trading at a discount to BTC holdings for the first time since early 2024. As of November 25, 2025, it hovers near parity around 1.0x–1.1x, with the stock down ~60% from its 2025 peak of $543.
This has sparked debates: Is the premium structurally broken, or is this a temporary compression amid a Bitcoin correction, BTC is down ~15% from its October high.
The Premium Has Vanished—But Is It Permanent?
No, the mNAV premium is not “gone for good” in a structural sense, but its return to historical highs (2x+) looks unlikely without a major Bitcoin bull run or renewed conviction in Saylor’s model. The compression reflects a “rational repricing” of risks, not a death knell for the strategy.
BTC fell from $107K (Oct) to $95K, pushing mNAV below 1x on Nov 12 (0.97x). Stock rebounded slightly to $210–$254 post-earnings. Temporary; historical patterns show mNAV rebounds with BTC (e.g., from 0.7x in May 2022 to 3.4x by late 2024).
Analysts like Standard Chartered see this as “correction exhaustion,” predicting recovery. Premium enables accretive issuance; near 1x turns it dilutive. Raised $20B in 2025 via equity, convertibles, and preferreds (e.g., €660M in Nov). Abandoned “no issuance below 2.5x mNAV” policy in Aug, eroding trust.
Q3 BTC buys slowed to 43K vs. 80K in Q1. Preferreds 8–10% yields provide funding but burden common equity, capping upside. Dilutes MSTR’s uniqueness, compressing premium. New entrants like MetaPlanet, Twenty One Capital and ETFs offer direct/cheaper exposure, reducing MSTR’s “moat.” mNAV fell to 1.32x by Oct.
Premium now ~18-month low 1.2x–1.3x avg. Could stabilize at 1.1x–1.5x if MSTR leads adoption. High debt $8.2B, 7–10% costs + negative software cash flow $100M loss in 2025. Total liabilities exceed cash; index exclusion risk (e.g., Nasdaq-100) could trigger $2.8B–$8.8B outflows in Feb 2026.
Manageable short-term: No major maturities until 2027; refinancing possible. But sustained mNAV <1x risks “death spiral” forced BTC sales for buybacks. Hedge funds like Jim Chanos profited from short MSTR/long BTC, closing positions as premium fell 60% from $80B to $15B implied.
Recent 6% stock jump on Nov 23 BTC buy announcement; institutional holders steady. Saylor’s “HODL” conviction intact. mNAV isn’t static—it’s emergent from market dynamics. It dipped to 0.7x in 2022’s bear market but expanded 5x in the subsequent bull. No treasury company has sustained <1x long-term without intervention.
Even at 1x, MSTR outperforms direct BTC in bull phases via yield 27.8% YTD BTC-per-share growth. Preferred stock sales like STRK at 8–10% dividends fund buys without full dilution, though they cap common upside. BTC rebound to $100K+ could restore 1.5x–2x mNAV.
S&P 500 inclusion still possible or corporate adoption wave might reignite premium. Q3 earnings beat expectations $10B net income, +7,100% YoY, showing underlying strength.
Peter Schiff, and Chanos argue the model is “fraudulent” or unsustainable—high costs, executive sales, and premium reliance make it vulnerable. If BTC stagnates, dilution could force sales, but probability is low debt buffer ~7.75x holdings.
The mNAV premium isn’t extinct—it’s compressed amid a risk-off crypto winter, echoing past cycles. MSTR remains a high-conviction BTC play for bulls outpacing BTC in recoveries, but risks like dilution and outflows make it riskier than spot ETFs.
At current levels ~1.0x–1.1x, it’s arguably undervalued for long-term holders betting on BTC’s upside, but short-term volatility could test 0.9x. Watch BTC’s $90K support and Dec index decisions for clues. If you’re in, it’s a “buy the fear” moment; if not, direct BTC exposure avoids the drama.