Given the recent government shutdown, the economic release calendar has been disrupted, with some reports delayed or rescheduled. Note that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for September 2025 is scheduled for today (November 25, 2025), while the third-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) advance estimate has been postponed.
Producer Price Index (PPI) – Released Today
The PPI tracks average changes in selling prices received by domestic producers for their output, serving as an early indicator of wholesale inflation trends. It’s a key input for the Federal Reserve’s inflation assessments.
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Month-over-month (MoM) change: 0.2%. Year-over-year (YoY) change: Around 2.7% for core PPI excluding food and energy. This release comes after a data drought due to the shutdown, providing much-needed visibility into producer-level pricing.
A softer-than-expected reading could bolster expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut at the Fed’s December meeting, potentially supporting risk assets like equities and cryptocurrencies. Conversely, hotter inflation could temper those hopes. Official data will be available on the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) website shortly after release.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) – Originally Scheduled for Tomorrow, Now Delayed
GDP is the broadest gauge of US economic activity, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. The advance estimate provides an initial snapshot of quarterly growth.
Due to the shutdown’s ripple effects, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) has rescheduled the third-quarter 2025 GDP advance estimate along with preliminary corporate profits to December 23, 2025, at 8:30 A.M. ET. This replaces what would have been the second estimate.
Nowcasting models, like the Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow, estimate real GDP growth at 4.2% seasonally adjusted annual rate as of November 21, 2025. This reflects strength in personal consumption and private investment, offset slightly by other factors.
The delay means markets will lack this critical growth signal for another month, potentially increasing volatility around Fed policy expectations. A robust print could reinforce the economy’s resilience amid higher rates. These releases are pivotal in the current environment of policy uncertainty.
These metrics influence Federal Reserve policy expectations—especially around interest rate cuts—which drive liquidity into risk assets. Softer inflation (PPI) or robust growth (GDP) signals typically boost crypto prices by signaling easier monetary policy, while hotter data or uncertainty can trigger sell-offs.
With the PPI released today and the Q3 GDP advance estimate delayed, here’s a breakdown of the immediate and potential effects. PPI The September 2025 PPI rose 0.3% month-over-month (MoM), matching consensus expectations and rebounding from August’s -0.1% decline.
Core PPI excluding food and energy increased less than forecasted, signaling cooling wholesale inflation pressures after a 76-day data blackout due to the government shutdown. Crypto markets showed a muted but positive response post-release.
BTC hovered around $87,600–$88,600, up 1.5% intraday, testing key resistance amid thin liquidity and whale pullbacks. The broader market cap climbed to $3.1 trillion, with the Crypto Fear & Greed Index ticking up from 10 to 15 still in “extreme fear” territory but signaling budding confidence.
Altcoins like ETH followed suit, gaining ~1–2%, as traders priced in sustained odds (85%) for a 25 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in December. In-line PPI avoids a hawkish surprise, reinforcing the narrative of disinflation and keeping borrowing costs in check.
Historically, softer PPI prints correlate with BTC rallies of 2–5% within 24–48 hours, as they enhance risk-on sentiment. However, the reaction was tempered by pre-release jitters and holiday-thin trading volumes ahead of Thanksgiving.
If follow-up data (e.g., tomorrow’s retail sales) heats up, it could reverse gains, pushing BTC toward $85,000 support. The Q3 2025 GDP advance estimate, originally due tomorrow, has been postponed to December 23 due to shutdown disruptions—skipping the traditional “advance” and rolling it into what would have been the second estimate.
Nowcasts (e.g., Atlanta Fed’s GDPNow) peg growth at a strong 4.2% annualized rate, driven by consumer spending and investment. The delay has sparked speculation, with some attributing it to political scrutiny under the Trump administration, fueling debates on economic health.
Crypto saw minor dips ~0.5% on the announcement, as data-dependent investors reassess Fed paths. Treasury yields edged up slightly, pressuring rate-sensitive assets like BTC. GDP provides a growth snapshot; a delay prolongs uncertainty, amplifying swings in crypto often 3–7% on major releases.
A robust print later could validate the “soft landing” thesis, propelling BTC toward $90,000+ by year-end. But prolonged opacity might exacerbate fear, especially with holiday liquidity drying up.
This fits a pattern where macro blackouts (e.g., post-shutdown) lead to 1–2% BTC volatility spikes, though crypto’s correlation to equities (~0.6) suggests resilience if stocks hold steady.
Overall, today’s PPI eases inflation fears, providing a tailwind for crypto amid rate cut bets, while the GDP delay adds fog—but strong underlying growth vibes could outweigh it. BTC’s path to $90,000 hinges on no surprises in upcoming PCE.