The World Bank has projected a bleak outlook for Nigeria’s fight against poverty, warning that the country’s poverty rate will rise by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027, a projection that many Nigerians interpret as a vote of no confidence in the current administration’s economic trajectory—despite earlier commendations from the Bank for President Bola Tinubu’s bold but painful reforms.
The projection is part of the latest edition of Africa’s Pulse, the Bank’s flagship economic update for Sub-Saharan Africa, released during the ongoing Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank in Washington, D.C.
While the Bank acknowledged marginal gains in Nigeria’s non-oil sectors, especially during the last quarter of 2024, it warns that deeper structural issues—ranging from fiscal fragility to persistent overreliance on oil—will continue to undermine poverty alleviation efforts. More damning, however, is the implication that the current policy direction is unlikely to lift Nigerians out of hardship any time soon.
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“Poverty in resource-rich, fragile countries—including large economies like Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo—is projected to increase by 3.6 percentage points between 2022 and 2027,” the report noted.
Reforms Without Relief
At the heart of this worsening poverty picture are the economic policies introduced under President Bola Tinubu, who assumed office in May 2023. His administration moved swiftly to scrap fuel subsidies and unify the naira’s multiple exchange rates—two reforms praised by international lenders, including the World Bank and IMF, as necessary steps toward fiscal consolidation and market efficiency.
But these reforms, while hailed on paper, have triggered an acute cost-of-living crisis. Petrol prices have more than tripled, inflation has soared past 30%, and the naira has weakened drastically. The consequences have been severe for ordinary Nigerians, especially as wages remain stagnant and public services deteriorate.
Millions have slid into deeper poverty in the wake of these policy shocks, prompting widespread discontent. Food prices have spiraled beyond the reach of many households, and unemployment remains stubbornly high. Even sectors like agriculture once considered a cushion against oil volatility, have been hit hard by insecurity, logistics breakdowns, and inflation.
Two years into Tinubu’s first term, Nigeria’s economic outlook remains troubled, with no immediate signs of improvement. The World Bank’s warning is now being interpreted by many Nigerians as a subtle rebuke of the government’s failure to cushion the impact of its reforms or deliver inclusive growth.
The Shadow of Buhari’s Legacy
The deepening poverty also reflects the cumulative effects of policy inertia and mismanagement during the administration of former President Muhammadu Buhari. Under Buhari, Nigeria entered two recessions, while inflation and debt surged. Infrastructure stagnated, and fiscal buffers were depleted.
By the time Tinubu took office, the economy was already on life support—burdened by a massive debt profile, unsustainable subsidies, and a bloated public sector. However, rather than provide immediate relief or a gradual pathway to stability, the reforms under Tinubu’s watch have amplified the economic distress so far.
“This follows a well-established pattern whereby resource wealth combined with fragility or conflict is associated with the highest poverty rates—averaging 46% in 2024, which is 13 percentage points higher than in non-fragile, resource-rich countries,” the World Bank report noted.
Nigeria’s classification as both resource-rich and institutionally fragile underscores the severity of its challenges. According to the Bank, Sub-Saharan Africa remains home to 80% of the world’s 695 million extreme poor, with half of the region’s 560 million poor concentrated in just four countries—including Nigeria.
A Dimming Hope
There is growing skepticism among economic analysts and civil society groups that Nigeria’s current trajectory will shift without a radical rethink of priorities. The World Bank itself, while endorsing Tinubu’s reforms in earlier reports, now appears more cautious—calling on Nigeria to improve fiscal management and build a “stronger fiscal contract” with its citizens.
“Governments need to focus on improving fiscal management and building a stronger fiscal contract with citizens to promote inclusive economic development and long-term poverty alleviation,” the report emphasized.
Yet for many, these recommendations echo past advisories that have gone unheeded. The question for Nigerians is no longer whether the current economic path is difficult—it is whether it leads anywhere better. So far, the signs are not encouraging.
Unless policies shift from being structurally sound in theory to being humane and inclusive in practice, the fear is that Nigeria’s most vulnerable will continue to bear the brunt of elite-driven reforms that seem detached from the realities on the ground.
With global institutions like the World Bank now forecasting a surge in poverty, even after endorsing the Tinubu administration’s reform playbook, the cracks in Nigeria’s economic strategy are becoming harder to ignore.