Artificial intelligence has emerged as the leading investment theme among North American family offices, even as most investors surveyed expect the sector to experience a bubble burst within the next five years, highlighting the tension between the pursuit of returns and concerns over excessive valuations.
A survey of 155 North American family offices by RBC Wealth Management and Campden Wealth found that 85% considered AI an asset class or investment theme likely to reward investors over the next 12 months, the next two to five years, or both. Yet 75% expected an AI bubble to burst within five years, suggesting that enthusiasm for the technology is increasingly accompanied by concerns about the sustainability of the investment boom.
The findings point to a market in which investors are reluctant to miss potential gains from AI while remaining wary of the risks associated with rapidly expanding valuations and the proliferation of companies seeking to capitalize on the technology.
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Bill Ringham, director of private wealth strategies at RBC, said the conflicting views could reflect cautious optimism about AI’s long-term potential alongside pressure to participate in a major investment trend.
“Even patient capital can be caught up in the fear of missing out,” Ringham said.
The results suggest that even investors traditionally associated with long investment horizons are grappling with the urgency surrounding AI. Family offices, which manage wealth for affluent families and often have greater flexibility to pursue long-term investments, are positioning themselves to benefit from the technology despite uncertainty over whether current market enthusiasm can be sustained.
AI was the leading investment theme for 2026, selected by 59% of respondents. Across the survey’s broader investment-horizon assessment, 85% identified AI as a potential source of returns over the coming year, the following two to five years, or both.
US equities ranked second, with 76% of respondents identifying them as an investment likely to reward investors across the specified horizons. Direct investments followed at 72%, indicating that family offices remain interested in both public-market opportunities and investments made directly in businesses.
However, the outlook shifted when respondents were asked to focus specifically on returns over the next two to five years. US equities were selected by 69% of respondents, compared with 64% for AI. Direct investments were close behind at 62%.
The difference indicates that family offices distinguish between the immediate opportunities presented by AI and their longer-term expectations for returns. While the technology dominates current investment discussions, traditional equity markets retain a stronger position in investors’ medium-term outlook.
Ringham said the pattern may indicate that fear of missing out is exerting greater influence on short-term investment decisions than on longer-term portfolio planning.
“Fear of missing out is a short-term view,” he said. “You’re seeing AI over the next 12 months as being that top priority. Their long-term look swings back.”
Investors have been assessing whether the surge in AI-related investment can translate into durable financial performance. Strong expectations for the technology do not necessarily mean that every company operating in the sector will generate attractive returns, particularly if capital continues flowing into businesses whose commercial prospects remain uncertain.
The survey’s findings also show that family offices are not abandoning other asset classes. Real estate, for example, was viewed less favorably over the next 12 months, with only 26% of respondents expecting it to reward investors. However, 51% selected the asset class when considering the next two to five years.
The increase suggests that respondents see a potentially stronger medium-term opportunity in real estate than in the immediate period, reinforcing the broader finding that investment preferences change according to the time horizon being considered.
Bubble Concerns Do Not Yet Outweigh AI’s Long-Term Appeal
The expectation among 75% of respondents that an AI bubble could burst within five years presents a striking contrast with the sector’s leading position in their investment plans.
Rather than indicating a wholesale rejection of AI, the findings suggest that investors are separating their assessment of the technology’s potential from their concerns about the market forming around it. A belief that AI will transform industries and create valuable businesses can coexist with the expectation that some companies will be overvalued or fail to meet investor expectations.
Ringham said this combination of optimism and caution was particularly evident in the startup segment, where the number of emerging companies makes it difficult to determine which businesses will ultimately establish sustainable positions.
“Those optimists are also not afraid to say that there might be a bubble down the road,” he said. “You’re investing in what you think is going to be incredibly successful in the longer term. But at this stage, there are so many new companies that you really have to go into these things with your eyes wide open.”
This assertion underpins a central challenge for investors allocating capital to AI: identifying companies that can convert technological advances into lasting commercial value while avoiding businesses whose valuations depend primarily on expectations of future growth.
The proliferation of AI startups adds to that challenge. As more companies enter the market, investors must distinguish between businesses with credible prospects for revenue generation and those that may struggle to establish viable business models as competition intensifies.
For family offices, the survey points to a balancing act rather than an outright retreat from the sector. AI remains their most prominent investment theme, but the expectation of a possible bubble burst suggests that enthusiasm is not equivalent to confidence in current valuations.
The findings do not establish when or how a correction might occur, nor do they indicate that all AI investments are exposed to the same risks. They do, however, show that a substantial majority of surveyed investors anticipate the possibility of a market reversal while continuing to pursue opportunities in the technology.
That tension could shape how family offices allocate capital over the coming years.