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The Music of Business, Welcome to Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19

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TEKEDIA MINI-MBA BEGINS

In a small village of ideas,

where questions matter more than answers,

Tekedia Mini-MBA edition 19 begins

not as a class,

but as a journey into the soul of business.

 

Here, we do not memorize success;

we decode it.

We study firms the way engineers study bridges:

load, stress, failure, resilience.

Why companies exist.

Why some scale.

Why most do not.

 

In this school,

knowledge is a factor of production.

Capital is more than money;

it is capability, patiently accumulated.

The Smiling Curve smiles only at those

who climb with intent at the edges.

 

From Lagos to New Delhi,

from Tokyo to Silicon Valley,

we trace invisible threads:

technology, markets, people, institutions,

and learn how innovation moves

from invention

to diffusion

to prosperity.

 

This is mechanics of business

We learn how power laws shape markets,

why platforms eat pipelines,

why Africa must build, not borrow, its future.

 

Week by week for 12 weeks,

ideas compound.

Learners become builders.

Executors become architects.

And careers, once linear,

discover optionality.

 

Tekedia Mini-MBA

is not about where you are,

but where you are prepared to go.

A quiet forge,

where scholars emerge with impact.

 

Welcome to Tekedia Institute

Where equations of markets are solved.

And where innovators, builders, professionals

learn the music of business.

Bitcoin Bear Market Over? – Traders Remain Cautious Amid BTC Price Pull Back

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Bitcoin’s recent move back above the $71,000 level has reignited debate across the crypto market, but optimism remains fragile as traders weigh whether the rebound has real strength or is merely another pause in a broader downtrend. But it has since fallen to below $70,000.

Recall that the flagship cryptocurrency recently slipped below the $80,000 mark for the first time since April 2025, extending its decline and bottoming out just above $77,000 on January 31.

This followed weeks of heightened volatility and sharp pullbacks that previously drove Bitcoin as low as $59,848. While the recovery has offered a measure of relief, it has done little to fully restore market confidence.

Bitcoin gained as much as 3% on Sunday, yet skepticism dominated sentiment as the weekly close approached. Characteristic volatility returned, and many traders remained unconvinced that the worst of the sell-off was over. Market participants continue to debate whether the latest bounce marks the end of the bear phase or simply another short-lived relief rally within a broader corrective cycle.

Several analysts have leaned toward caution. Technical analyst Tony Severino pointed to multiple indicators that, in his assessment, still favor further downside and the possibility of new lows. Similarly, trader BitBull argued that Bitcoin has yet to experience a final capitulation. Drawing comparisons to the 2022 market cycle, he suggested that a true bottom could form below the $50,000 level, an area that would place a significant portion of recent ETF buyers at a loss.

Perspectives differ sharply between investor groups. Bitwise CEO Hunter Horsley noted that Bitcoin’s earlier dip below $70,000 is being interpreted in contrasting ways by long-term holders and institutional investors.

While many long-term participants are growing uneasy, newer institutional entrants are increasingly viewing the pullback as an attractive entry opportunity. According to Horsley, some institutions are now seeing price levels they previously believed were permanently out of reach.

Horsley described the current environment as a bear market, noting that Bitcoin is being “swept up” alongside other macro assets as investors reduce exposure and sell liquid holdings. In the near term, he said, Bitcoin is trading more like a risk asset than a standalone store of value.

This cautious reality stands in contrast to earlier bullish projections. In October, Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Asset Research, Geoff Kendrick, said he did not expect Bitcoin to trade below $100,000 again. However, Bitcoin’s recent performance has challenged that outlook. The asset is down roughly 22.6% over the past 30 days and was trading around $69,635 at the time of publication.

From a technical perspective, crypto analyst Crypto Candy observed that Bitcoin’s recent price action has largely followed expected patterns. A pullback from the $61,000–$58,000 region toward the $70,000–$67,000 zone had been anticipated, and the market has reacted within that range.

Crypto Candy emphasized that a short-term bullish outlook would require a decisive daily close above $71,000. Until that level is reclaimed and held, the probability of continued range-bound movement or further downside tests remains elevated.

Looking ahead

With momentum indicators flashing mixed signals and macroeconomic uncertainty still weighing on risk assets, caution continues to dominate market sentiment. Bitcoin’s near-term direction is likely to depend on its ability to reclaim key resistance levels and on broader shifts in global liquidity and investor risk appetite.

African Start-up Funding Falls to $174m in January 2026 as Deal Count Hits Record Low

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African start-up funding opened 2026 on a weak note, with total capital raised dropping sharply in January as deal activity hit a record low, underscoring growing investor caution across the continent.

According to a report by Africa: The Big Deal, start-ups across the African continent, raised a total of $174 million in funding in January 2026 through disclosed deals of $100,000 and above, spanning equity, debt, and grants, excluding exits.

This figure represents a sharp decline compared to January 2025, when start-ups raised $276 million, and is also well below the $263 million monthly average recorded over the previous 12 months.

Despite the slowdown, January 2026 still performed better than earlier down years, surpassing January 2023 ($106m) and January 2024 ($85m). However, a more troubling signal emerged from deal activity: only 26 start-ups announced funding rounds of at least $100,000 during the month.

This is just over half of both the monthly average over the past year and the tally recorded in January 2025. On this metric, January 2026 marks the lowest monthly count on record since at least 2020.

Funding was concentrated among a small number of large deals. The top raiser was Egyptian fintech valU, which secured $64 million in debt financing from the National Bank of Egypt (NBE),which is significant step in its growth and expansion plans. This financing agreement allows Valu to strengthen its funding base and support its regional growth, particularly in Jordan.  

This was followed by MAX, a Nigerian mobility financing start-up, which raised $24 million through a mix of equity and asset-backed debt. This funding round includes participation from Equitane DMCC, Novastar, Endeavor Catalystand others, alongside asset-backed debt from the Energy Entrepreneurs Growth Fund (EEGF).

The 
capital will be used to scale its electric vehicle fleetexpand battery swapping and clean energy infrastructure, and support regional expansion across West and Central Africa.

Four additional start-ups closed equity rounds of $10 million or more. These included NowPay (Egypt, fintech), which raised $20 million; Yakeey (Morocco, proptech), which secured a $15 million Series A; Terra Industries (defence), which raised $12 million; and Cauridor (Côte d’Ivoire, fintech), which also closed a $10 million-plus round.

On the exit front excluded from the funding totals three notable transactions were announced in January. Flutterwave acquired Nigerian fintech Mono in an all-stock deal valued at around $30 million. Savannah, a tech talent start-up, was acquired by Commit, while Izili Group completed the acquisition of Qotto, an off-grid solar company.

Outlook

Looking ahead, the January data points to a cautious start to 2026 for Africa’s start-up ecosystem. While capital continues to flow into later-stage or asset-backed opportunities, particularly in fintech and mobility, early-stage activity remains under pressure, reflected in the historically low number of funded start-ups.

Investors appear increasingly selective, prioritizing clear revenue models, capital efficiency, and paths to profitability over rapid expansion.

That said, the year is not without upside potential. Improving macroeconomic stability in some key markets, a gradual easing of global interest rates, and continued corporate and bank-led financing could support a modest rebound in funding volumes as the year progresses. Exits such as acquisitions also signal that strategic buyers remain active, which may help restore confidence.

Overall, while funding levels may recover unevenly in 2026, the near-term outlook suggests a more disciplined and concentrated investment environment, where fewer start-ups raise capital, but those that do are likely to be stronger, more resilient businesses.

China extends gold buying streak as reserve strategy persists amid price volatility

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China’s continued gold accumulation points to a structural shift in reserve management, even as price volatility exposes the risks and contradictions of the current gold boom.

China’s central bank extended its gold-buying streak for a 15th month in January, reinforcing a long-term reserve strategy that appears increasingly detached from short-term price swings and domestic consumption trends, even as the global gold market grapples with extreme volatility.

Data from the People’s Bank of China (PBOC) showed that the country’s official gold holdings edged up to 74.19 million fine troy ounces at the end of January, from 74.15 million ounces in December. While the incremental increase was small, the persistence of the buying matters more than the volume. It signals that Beijing continues to treat gold as a strategic reserve asset rather than a tactical trade, despite sharp fluctuations in global prices.

The value of China’s gold reserves rose sharply to $369.58 billion at the end of January, up from $319.45 billion a month earlier. That jump was largely driven by price effects, underscoring how volatile gold markets can amplify changes in reserve valuations even when physical purchases are modest.

January was one of the most turbulent months for gold in recent years. Prices surged to a record near $5,600 per ounce during a speculative run fueled by geopolitical uncertainty, aggressive positioning by investors, and expectations of looser U.S. monetary policy. The rally proved fragile. Following the nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next chair of the U.S. Federal Reserve late in the month, gold prices fell sharply, dropping to as low as $4,403.24 per ounce earlier this week before rebounding to around $4,960.

That whipsaw has highlighted the risks of short-term speculation in gold, but China’s continued buying suggests the central bank is largely indifferent to near-term price direction. For policymakers in Beijing, gold serves as a hedge against currency risk, financial sanctions, and broader geopolitical uncertainty, particularly at a time when trust in the dollar-centric global financial system is being questioned by several emerging economies.

China has been one of the most consistent official buyers of gold globally over the past two years, alongside other central banks seeking to diversify reserves. Although the PBOC briefly halted purchases in May 2024, ending an 18-month buying streak, it resumed accumulation six months later. That pause was widely interpreted as a tactical breather rather than a change in policy, and the subsequent resumption has reinforced expectations that gold will remain a core component of China’s reserve strategy.

Despite the sustained buying, gold still accounts for a relatively modest share of China’s total foreign exchange reserves compared with the United States and major European economies. That leaves room for further accumulation over time, particularly if Beijing continues to prioritize diversification away from dollar-denominated assets.

At the same time, China’s domestic gold market is moving in a different direction. Total gold consumption fell for a second consecutive year in 2025, declining 3.75% to 950 metric tons, according to the state-backed China Gold Association. The drop reflects weaker jewelry demand amid slower economic growth and cautious household spending.

Yet beneath that headline figure lies a notable shift in behavior. Purchases of gold bars and coins surged 35.14% in 2025, accounting for more than half of total gold consumption. This rise in investment demand points to heightened risk aversion among households, many of whom have grown wary of property, equities, and other traditional stores of wealth.

The contrast between falling overall consumption and booming investment demand highlights how gold is increasingly being used as a financial shelter rather than a consumer good. It also mirrors broader economic anxieties, as Chinese savers seek protection against uncertainty at home and abroad.

China’s official gold purchases and the shift in domestic demand mean that the metal is now playing an integral role in the country’s financial landscape. For the central bank, gold remains a tool for strategic insulation rather than short-term profit.

Last week, the flagship ideology journal of China’s Communist Party published remarks from President Xi Jinping that outlined plans to turn the renminbi into a global reserve currency. Currently, the US dollar plays that role – the main currency for the vast majority of foreign transactions.

According to the journal Qiushi, Xi told government officials that China should aspire to establish “a [gold-backed] strong currency widely used in international trade and foreign exchange,” with a “powerful central bank” and the ability to attract investment and influence global pricing.

However, China’s steady accumulation provides an underlying source of support for gold prices, even when speculative rallies unwind abruptly. While sharp corrections expose the risks of momentum-driven trading, sustained central bank demand suggests that gold’s strategic appeal remains intact.

With global monetary policy, geopolitics, and financial fragmentation continuing to shape investor behavior, Beijing is signaling by its actions that gold is likely to remain a central pillar of its long-term financial planning, regardless of short-term turbulence in prices.

Bitcoin Core Developer Gloria Zhao Steps Down As RNBW Goes Live

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Gloria Zhao, a prominent Bitcoin Core maintainer, has stepped down from her role after approximately six years of contributions to the project. She submitted a final pull request on the Bitcoin GitHub repository, removing herself from the list of trusted keys and maintainers.

She also revoked her PGP signing key, a standard procedure when departing such a position to ensure no further official releases are signed under her credentials. Zhao joined as a maintainer in 2022, becoming the first known woman in that role, succeeding Pieter Wuille.

Funded in part by Brink (a nonprofit supporting Bitcoin development), she specialized in critical areas like mempool policy (rules for transaction acceptance in nodes’ memory pools), transaction relay, fee estimation, peer-to-peer protocol enhancements, and related Bitcoin Improvement Proposals (BIPs) such as package relay (BIP 331), TRUC (BIP 431), and RBF (Replace-By-Fee) improvements.

Her work helped improve transaction propagation, reduce inefficiencies, and mitigate potential censorship risks in the network.The departure appears amicable and routine for open-source projects—maintainers come and go without impacting Bitcoin’s consensus rules, network security, or transaction processing.

Bitcoin Core remains maintained by a small group of trusted contributors, and her exit creates a vacancy but no immediate operational concerns. Some reports describe her as “controversial” amid past debates on policy changes or community dynamics, but the move is widely viewed as a normal transition.

Pieter Wuille is a Belgian computer scientist and one of the most influential Bitcoin Core developers. He discovered Bitcoin in late 2010 and began contributing to Bitcoin Core then Bitcoin-Qt in May 2011.

Over more than a decade, he authored or co-authored numerous key improvements, focusing on performance, security, privacy, scalability, and usability. He held maintainer status with commit access from around 2011 until July 2022, when he stepped down from that role but continued contributing code, reviews, and related projects.

Wuille has been recognized for his work, including receiving the Finney Freedom Prize in January 2025 shared with Gregory Maxwell from the Human Rights Foundation for advancements in Bitcoin’s usability, scalability, and privacy during Bitcoin’s early growth phase roughly 2012–2016.

Rainbow Wallet’s RNBW Token Goes Live

Rainbow Wallet, a popular non-custodial Ethereum wallet known for its user-friendly interface, NFT support, and multi-chain features (especially on Ethereum and Layer-2s like Base), has launched its native token $RNBW.

The Token Generation Event (TGE) occurred on February 5, 2026, at around 13:00 UTC, converting the existing Rainbow Points loyalty program earned via swaps, holdings, referrals, etc., since late 2023 into on-chain tokens. Users can claim their airdropped allocations directly in the Rainbow app under the Rewards tab.

Total supply: 1 billion RNBW. Initial circulating supply: Roughly 18-20% at launch including ~15% for airdrops to points earners and other allocations. Powers governance, rewards, staking/incentives, and ecosystem features in Rainbow’s “onchain Robinhood”-style app. Live on major exchanges like Gate.io, KuCoin, MEXC, Coinbase, and others, plus Uniswap via a CCA auction for fair price discovery and liquidity bootstrapping on Uniswap v4.

Contract address on Base http://0xa53887F7e7c1bf5010b8627F1C1ba94fE7a5d6E0:Post-launch, the token experienced volatility—initial hype drove prices up with some all-time highs around $0.11 reported early, but it quickly corrected, trading in the $0.03-$0.04 range in recent data amid broader market conditions and reports of launch hiccups.

Some early CoinList buyers at ~$0.10 faced losses, but the project positions $RNBW as a step toward community governance and real utility in wallet/DeFi activities. Both events highlight ongoing evolution in Bitcoin’s core development and Ethereum’s wallet/DeFi ecosystems—decentralized projects rely on contributor transitions and token incentives to sustain growth.