The next phase of the artificial intelligence boom will be defined less by who builds the biggest data centers and more by who figures out how to use far less power to achieve comparable results, according to former Facebook chief privacy officer Chris Kelly.

Speaking on CNBC’s Squawk Box on Tuesday, Kelly said the industry’s current obsession with scale is colliding with economic reality, as the cost of power, chips, and infrastructure rises sharply alongside mounting pressure on already stretched electricity grids.

“We run our brains on 20 watts. We don’t need gigawatt power centers to reason,” Kelly said. “I think that finding efficiency is going to be one of the key things that the big AI players look to.”

Kelly, who also served as Facebook’s general counsel, said companies that deliver breakthroughs in reducing data center and compute costs will ultimately emerge as the winners of the AI race. In his view, the arms race to build ever-larger facilities packed with high-end GPUs is becoming increasingly difficult to justify, even for the industry’s best-funded players.

That warning comes at a time when spending on AI infrastructure is accelerating at an unprecedented pace. The global data center market has seen more than $61 billion in infrastructure dealmaking in 2025 alone, according to S&P Global, as hyperscalers rush to lock down land, power connections, and long-term equipment supply.

OpenAI sits at the center of that expansion. The company has made more than $1.4 trillion in AI-related commitments over the coming years, spanning massive partnerships with Nvidia, Oracle, and data center operator CoreWeave. Much of that capital is earmarked for training and running increasingly sophisticated models that demand enormous computing power.

Yet the scale of these projects has intensified concerns about energy consumption. In September, Nvidia and OpenAI announced a project involving at least 10 gigawatts of data center capacity. That level of power demand is roughly equivalent to the annual electricity consumption of about 8 million U.S. households and is close to New York City’s peak summer electricity demand in 2024, according to the New York Independent System Operator.

As utilities struggle to keep up with surging demand from AI facilities, questions are growing about where the power will come from, how fast the new generation can be brought online, and whether grids can remain reliable. For AI developers, electricity is increasingly becoming a strategic constraint, alongside access to advanced chips.

Cost concerns have been sharpened further by developments in China. In December 2024, Chinese startup DeepSeek released a free, open-source large language model that it said was developed for under $6 million, a figure that stood in stark contrast to the vast sums associated with U.S. AI projects. While the company’s claims have been closely examined by industry experts, the episode reinforced the idea that advanced AI may not always require massive budgets and sprawling infrastructure.

Kelly said these dynamics are likely to propel Chinese firms into a more prominent position in the next phase of AI development. He pointed to President Donald Trump’s recent decision to approve the sale of Nvidia’s H200 chips to China, a move that could significantly expand the country’s access to cutting-edge compute hardware.

“I think you’re going to see a number of Chinese players come to the fore,” Kelly said, adding that open-source models, particularly from China, could give users access to basic levels of compute as well as generative and agentic AI at far lower cost than proprietary systems.

Such a shift would carry wide implications for the global AI landscape. If efficiency gains and open-source approaches reduce the need for enormous capital outlays, the industry could become less concentrated among a small group of cash-rich U.S. firms. At the same time, pressure to curb power consumption could accelerate changes in chip design, model architecture, and software optimization, pushing developers to prioritize smarter, leaner systems over brute-force scale.

Kelly was pointing at a growing tension at the heart of the AI boom. While capital continues to pour into data centers and infrastructure, the limits imposed by energy supply and cost are becoming harder to ignore. As the industry matures, he suggests, the defining question will no longer be who can build the biggest machines, but who can deliver intelligence more efficiently, sustainably, and at a fraction of today’s power bill.

U.S. consumers displayed notable resilience this holiday season, driving retail spending up 4.2% year over year, according to preliminary data released Tuesday by Visa.

The report from Visa Consulting and Analytics shows that despite lingering economic headwinds and ongoing concerns about inflation, shoppers continued to spend, particularly on technology and personal goods.

The findings, based on a seven-week period beginning Nov. 1 and drawn from a subset of Visa’s payments network data in the U.S., cover core retail categories while excluding spending on automotive, gasoline, and restaurants. Figures are reported in nominal terms and are not adjusted for inflation.

In-store purchases accounted for the bulk of holiday spending, capturing 73% of total retail payment volume, while online purchases made up the remaining 27%. E-commerce, however, was the primary driver of growth, rising 7.8% compared with last year, reflecting continued demand for convenience, early-season promotions, and increasingly AI-assisted shopping behavior.

Michael Brown, principal U.S. economist at Visa, noted the underlying surprise in the report, saying: “Consumer spending is holding up reasonably well in light of softer consumer confidence than we had this time last year, amid a number of headwinds and concerns about inflation.”

Brown highlighted that the 2025 holiday season marked a distinct behavioral shift, with artificial intelligence influencing how consumers compare products and make purchase decisions. Roughly half of consumers surveyed reported using AI for either comparison shopping or narrowing down gift options, marking the first holiday season with such widespread AI adoption.

Spending Categories and Consumer Trends

The breakdown of spending across categories shows a shift toward personal goods and convenience. Electronics emerged as the top-performing sector, posting a 5.8% increase, attributed to a refresh cycle driven by “high-performance devices in the AI era.” Apparel and accessories rose 5.3%, while general merchandise stores—retailers offering a one-stop shopping experience—saw a 3.7% lift.

Conversely, home improvement struggled during the holidays. Spending on building materials and garden equipment fell 1%, suggesting that consumers prioritized gift-giving and personal gadgets over home maintenance. Furniture and home furnishings remained essentially flat, with a modest 0.8% gain.

While the headline 4.2% growth signals strength, real spending growth adjusted for inflation is estimated at roughly 2.2%.

“Consumers are uncertain, cautious, but also smart about how they’re spending their money,” Brown said.

Visa’s data also highlights a disconnect between sentiment and action. According to the CNBC All-America Economic Survey, 41% of Americans planned to spend less this holiday season, six points higher than last year. Rising import prices and years-long inflation remain a significant factor at checkout, yet spending overall remained robust.

AI and Technology’s Role

Experts say AI tools have allowed consumers to maintain spending levels despite economic uncertainty. Shoppers increasingly leverage AI for comparison shopping, deal-finding, and refining product preferences in real-time, allowing them to make smarter choices and optimize their budgets.

Electronics, boosted by high-performance AI-capable devices, exemplify the influence of these technologies on purchasing behavior.

Looking ahead, analysts expect U.S. retail spending to remain supported by continued AI adoption, e-commerce growth, and selective discretionary spending. Wage growth and corporate hiring trends could sustain consumer purchasing power, while interest rate levels set by the Federal Reserve will remain critical. Analysts note that a moderation in inflation, combined with technology-driven efficiencies, may further encourage online and high-tech goods spending.

Given the growing influence of AI in comparison shopping and personalized recommendations, retailers that integrate AI into their platforms are likely to see continued gains. Categories like electronics, apparel, and convenience-focused products are expected to maintain momentum, while sectors like home improvement may face slower growth unless interest rates and consumer confidence improve.

AI is increasingly central to how Americans shop, and it is believed that as we move into 2026, consumers will continue to leverage these tools to make smarter decisions, even in the face of macroeconomic uncertainty. Some analysts believe that the holiday season, so far, has demonstrated that technology can offset some of the pressures from inflation and high costs.

Overall, the 2025 season is believed to have marked the evolving U.S. retail landscape, where AI-driven tools, convenience, and personal tech are shaping consumer behavior.