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IPOs Have Underperformed the Market Since 2019 – Apollo Reports

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According to data from Apollo Global Management, an American asset management firm, IPOs have underperformed the broader market since 2019, marking one of the weakest periods on record for newly public companies.

A chart compiled by Apollo’s chief economist Torsten Sløk illustrates this trend clearly. While IPO performance has fluctuated over decades, the post-2019 cohort stands out for consistently negative market-adjusted returns.

In the chart, many recent listings have lagged the market by 40-80% in the three years following their debut. This contrasts with stronger periods in the past where new companies often rewarded early investors.

Why Have IPOs Underperformed?

Several analysts note that many companies listed during 2020 and 2021 at historically high valuations when interest rates were near zero and investor appetite for growth stocks was exceptionally strong.

Those valuations became difficult to sustain once central banks aggressively increased interest rates.

Many newly public companies were still unprofitable and heavily dependent on future growth expectations. Higher discount rates significantly reduced the present value investors assigned to those future earnings.

These elevated entry points left little room for further upside once market conditions shifted. When the Federal Reserve began hiking rates aggressively in 2022, growth-oriented and often unprofitable companies that dominated the IPO pipeline suffered the most. Higher borrowing costs compressed valuations, particularly for long-duration assets.

Finally, the broader market’s strong returns have been concentrated among a small group of mega-cap technology companies, particularly firms benefiting from artificial intelligence. This has raised the performance benchmark that newly listed companies must beat.

The biggest beneficiaries include:

•NVIDIA, whose graphics processing units (GPUs) became the backbone of AI model training and inference. Exploding demand for its chips led to record revenue growth and made it one of the world’s most valuable companies.

•Microsoft, which integrated generative AI across products such as Microsoft 365 and Azure through its partnership with OpenAI. Investors rewarded the company for positioning itself as a leader in enterprise AI.

•Meta Platforms, which leveraged AI to improve advertising efficiency, user engagement and recommendation algorithms, helping drive earnings growth.

•Amazon, which benefited from rising demand for AI infrastructure through Amazon Web Services (AWS) while embedding AI into its retail and cloud businesses.

•Alphabet, Google’s parent company, which expanded AI capabilities across Search, Cloud and its Gemini models

Despite the broader trend, a handful of IPOs have significantly outperformed both their issue prices and in many cases, the wider market.

While successful listings such as Airbnb, Snowflake, Arm Holdings and Circle demonstrate that exceptional businesses can still reward investors, they remain the exception rather than the rule.

For most newly listed companies, inflated valuations, changing macroeconomic conditions and execution challenges have resulted in years of underperformance relative to the broader market.

For investors, the lesson is increasingly clear, purchasing an IPO simply because it is new is rarely a winning strategy. Long-term fundamentals, sustainable profitability and reasonable valuations continue to matter far more than the excitement surrounding a company’s market debut.

As IPO activity surges in 2026, reaching record levels midway through the year, Apollo’s analysis serves as a timely reminder. While strong individual stories will always emerge, the cohort as a whole has struggled in the current environment.

Prudent investors are weighing these risks against potential opportunities, recognizing that not every public debut translates into long-term success.

The coming quarters will reveal whether shifting economic conditions can improve outcomes for the next wave of listings or if the post-2019 challenges persist.

Trump Targets EU Over Google Fine, Threatens New Tariffs and Trade Probe Into Big Tech Penalties

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President Donald Trump on Friday announced that his administration will launch a trade investigation into the European Union, escalating transatlantic trade tensions after Brussels imposed a €890 million ($1 billion) fine on Google for violating the bloc’s landmark Digital Markets Act (DMA).

Trump said the probe could ultimately lead to the reversal of European penalties imposed on U.S. technology companies and pave the way for “substantial” new tariffs on goods imported from the 27-member bloc.

The announcement marks a significant expansion of the administration’s use of trade policy to counter what it views as discriminatory treatment of American companies overseas, particularly large technology firms that have faced increasing regulatory scrutiny in Europe.

In a lengthy post on Truth Social, Trump accused the European Union of unfairly targeting America’s biggest technology companies and using regulatory enforcement as a revenue-generating tool.

“The European Union is at it again and, as usual, taking direct aim at GREAT American Companies!” Trump wrote.

He accused the bloc of “‘ROBBING’ American Companies and, in turn, the American Taxpayer,” citing the European Commission’s recent decision to fine Google over alleged anti-competitive practices.

Trump also referenced previous European enforcement actions against Apple, Meta and Amazon, arguing that Brussels has repeatedly singled out leading U.S. technology firms.

“The United States of America is not a ‘PIGGYBANK’ for Europe, nor will we allow it to be!” he said.

Trump further claimed that Google’s latest penalty was imposed “without explanation.”

However, the European Commission said earlier this week that the €890 million fine resulted from Google’s failure to comply with provisions of the Digital Markets Act.

According to the Commission, Google unlawfully favored its own services, including shopping and hotel listings, in search results while also restricting app developers from directing users to alternative purchasing options outside the Google Play Store. Regulators ordered the company to change those practices within 60 days or face additional penalties that could reach 5% of Google’s worldwide annual turnover.

Google has said it is reviewing the decision and considering an appeal.

Trump said his administration will immediately initiate an investigation under Section 301 of the Trade Act of 1974, one of the U.S. government’s most powerful trade enforcement mechanisms.

Section 301 authorizes the Office of the U.S. Trade Representative to investigate foreign policies or practices that are deemed unreasonable, discriminatory, or harmful to U.S. commerce. If violations are found, the president can impose retaliatory measures, including tariffs or other trade restrictions.

The provision has become a cornerstone of Trump’s trade strategy.

During both his first and current terms, Trump has repeatedly relied on Section 301 investigations to justify tariffs on imports from major trading partners, arguing that the authority allows the United States to respond aggressively to unfair trade practices.

“The European Union will pay a very big price for this illegal and highly unethical conduct, which I have consistently warned them about,” Trump wrote.

“The penalties will be entirely reversed and, we anticipate, a substantial TARIFF to be placed on them at the earliest possible moment.”

He concluded the post with the message: “Stay tuned!”

The announcement comes only hours after the administration imposed new tariffs ranging from 10% to 12.5% on goods from more than 80 countries, including members of the European Union, citing concerns related to forced labor.

Those measures immediately drew legal challenges.

By Friday afternoon, the Liberty Justice Center had filed a lawsuit in the U.S. Court of International Trade on behalf of two small businesses, arguing that the administration is improperly using Section 301 to effectively revive Trump’s 2025 “Liberation Day” tariffs.

According to the lawsuit, those earlier tariffs were struck down by the U.S. Supreme Court, and the plaintiffs contend that the administration is attempting to achieve the same policy objective through a different legal mechanism.

The latest dispute underscores how technology regulation is becoming an increasingly important flashpoint in U.S.-EU trade relations.

For years, European regulators have pursued aggressive antitrust and digital market enforcement against major American technology companies, arguing that dominant platforms have abused their market positions to the detriment of competitors and consumers.

The Digital Markets Act, which came into force in 2024, is central to that effort. The law designates companies such as Alphabet, Apple, Meta, Amazon and Microsoft as “gatekeepers,” subjecting them to stricter rules governing competition, interoperability and consumer choice.

Brussels maintains that the legislation is designed to foster fair competition rather than target companies based on nationality. Washington, however, has stated that the practical effect of Europe’s digital regulations falls disproportionately on U.S. firms because they dominate global digital markets. Trump’s decision to link trade policy directly to technology regulation signals that disputes over digital competition are now being treated as broader trade issues rather than purely regulatory matters.

Should the Section 301 investigation conclude that the EU’s enforcement actions unfairly discriminate against American companies, the administration could impose additional tariffs on European exports, further straining economic relations between two of the world’s largest trading partners.

The dispute also raises the prospect of retaliatory measures from Brussels.

The European Union has previously responded to U.S. tariffs with countermeasures targeting politically sensitive American exports. Another round of tariff escalation could affect sectors well beyond technology, including automobiles, industrial goods, agriculture and consumer products.

Grok 4.5 Launches as Tech Stocks Lose $820 Billion Amid Mixed AI Earnings

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The technology sector experienced one of its most volatile trading sessions of the year as xAI officially launched Grok 4.5, its newest frontier artificial intelligence model, while disappointing earnings from major technology companies erased approximately $820 billion in stock market value.

The sharp market reaction highlighted the increasingly complex relationship between AI innovation, corporate profitability, and investor expectations. The launch of Grok 4.5 marks another milestone in the escalating AI race among leading technology companies.

Developed by Elon Musk’s xAI, the model is designed to deliver improved reasoning, coding capabilities, and conversational performance, building on earlier Grok releases.

The upgrade reflects the industry’s relentless push toward more capable large language models as competition intensifies between xAI, OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, and Meta.

While Grok 4.5 generated excitement among AI enthusiasts and developers, investors were more focused on quarterly earnings reports that painted a mixed picture for the technology sector.

Rather than celebrating AI breakthroughs, Wall Street reacted to slowing growth, rising infrastructure costs, and massive capital expenditure plans that continue to pressure corporate profits.

Tesla suffered the biggest blow of the day, with its shares plunging 14% following an earnings miss and the announcement of an aggressive $25 billion capital expenditure plan.

Investors expressed concern that the company’s expanding investments in artificial intelligence, robotics, autonomous driving, manufacturing capacity, and computing infrastructure could weigh heavily on profitability in the coming years.

Although Tesla has repeatedly emphasized that its future extends beyond electric vehicles into AI-powered autonomous transportation and robotics, the market appeared unconvinced that the enormous spending would generate sufficient near-term returns.

The decline wiped tens of billions of dollars from Tesla’s market capitalization and became one of the primary drivers behind the broader technology sell-off. In contrast, Intel emerged as one of the session’s strongest performers.

The semiconductor giant saw its stock surge 11% after reporting second-quarter revenue of $16.1 billion, exceeding many market expectations. The company’s improved results were largely attributed to growing demand for AI-related chips, data center products, and enterprise computing solutions.

Intel’s performance offered evidence that not every company participating in the AI ecosystem is struggling with profitability. Instead, the results demonstrated that firms supplying the hardware required for AI development continue to benefit from expanding demand as cloud providers and technology companies invest billions in computing infrastructure.

The contrasting performances of Tesla and Intel illustrate how investors are increasingly differentiating between companies building AI applications and those supplying the foundational hardware powering the AI revolution.

While ambitious spending plans may create long-term opportunities, markets remain highly sensitive to execution risks and short-term financial performance. The broader loss of approximately $820 billion in market capitalization underscores how elevated expectations have become across the technology industry.

With AI dominating corporate strategy, investors are demanding not only innovation but also measurable financial returns. Companies can no longer rely solely on ambitious AI announcements to sustain market valuations if earnings fail to meet expectations.

Meanwhile, the introduction of Grok 4.5 reinforces that competition in artificial intelligence remains far from settled. As new models become increasingly sophisticated, companies will continue investing aggressively in research, infrastructure, and computing power.

The challenge for executives now lies in balancing innovation with profitability, ensuring that AI investments ultimately translate into sustainable shareholder value.

The trading session ultimately served as a reminder that while artificial intelligence continues to reshape the future of technology, financial markets remain firmly focused on one question: whether the AI revolution can deliver both groundbreaking innovation and consistent earnings growth.

Brent Crude Hits Two-Month High Amid Houthi Strikes on Saudi Tankers

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Brent crude has surged above $100 per barrel for the first time in two months, sending a fresh wave of concern through global financial markets as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate.

The move follows reports that Houthi militants struck two Saudi oil tankers, raising fears that critical energy infrastructure and shipping routes could face further disruption.

The spike in oil prices comes as investors are already grappling with stubborn inflation, elevated bond yields, and growing uncertainty surrounding U.S. monetary policy.

The latest developments have reinforced the market’s sensitivity to geopolitical risks. Saudi Arabia remains one of the world’s largest oil exporters, and any threat to its production or shipping capacity can have an immediate impact on global energy prices.

Even if the attacks do not significantly reduce oil output, traders tend to price in the possibility of future supply disruptions. As a result, Brent crude has climbed sharply, reflecting a renewed geopolitical risk premium rather than an actual shortage of crude supplies.

The consequences of rising oil prices extend well beyond the energy sector. Higher fuel costs increase transportation expenses, raise manufacturing costs, and ultimately feed into consumer prices.

This creates additional inflationary pressure at a time when central banks have been attempting to bring inflation back under control. A sustained rise in energy prices could reverse some of the progress made over recent months, forcing policymakers to maintain restrictive monetary policies for longer than previously expected.

Financial markets are already adjusting to that possibility. The yield on the U.S. 10-year Treasury has climbed to around 4.71%, reflecting investor expectations that borrowing costs will remain elevated.

Rising Treasury yields typically signal that markets anticipate tighter financial conditions, stronger inflation pressures, or both. Higher yields also increase financing costs for businesses and consumers, weighing on economic growth making fixed-income investments more attractive relative to equities.

Expectations surrounding the Federal Reserve have also shifted significantly. According to market pricing, the probability of a September interest rate hike has risen to roughly 82%, suggesting investors increasingly believe the central bank may need to resume tightening if inflationary pressures intensify.

Energy prices have historically played a major role in shaping inflation expectations, and another prolonged oil rally could complicate the Fed’s efforts to achieve price stability without pushing the economy into a sharper slowdown.

Adding another layer of uncertainty are reports that U.S. President Donald Trump is in what sources describe as a revenge mode toward Iran, while military assets and weapons continue to be deployed into the region.

Although official details remain limited, the reports have fueled speculation that the conflict could expand beyond isolated attacks. Markets generally react negatively to the prospect of broader military confrontation in the Middle East, particularly when key oil-producing nations or strategic shipping lanes are involved.

Investors are therefore navigating a market shaped by three powerful forces: rising energy prices, tightening financial conditions, and escalating geopolitical tensions. Equity markets may remain volatile as higher oil prices squeeze corporate profit margins while elevated interest rates reduce the appeal of risk assets.

Traditional safe-haven assets such as the U.S. dollar and gold could continue attracting investor demand amid heightened uncertainty. Market participants will closely monitor developments in the Middle East, upcoming U.S. inflation data, and Federal Reserve communications for clues about the future direction of monetary policy.

If geopolitical tensions continue to escalate and oil prices remain above $100, inflation expectations could strengthen further, reinforcing the case for higher interest rates. Until greater clarity emerges, volatility is likely to remain a defining feature of global financial markets.

AFX Trade’s Arbitrum Perpetual DEX Suffers $24.15 Million Exploit as Hacker Offered 30% Bounty

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The decentralized finance sector has once again been reminded of the persistent security risks that accompany permissionless financial protocols.

AFX Trade, a perpetual decentralized exchange (DEX) operating on the Arbitrum network, recently suffered a devastating exploit that resulted in the loss of approximately $24.15 million in digital assets.

The attack has sent shockwaves through the crypto community, raising renewed concerns about smart contract vulnerabilities, protocol security, and user confidence in decentralized trading platforms.

According to the project’s initial statements, the exploit targeted vulnerabilities within the protocol’s smart contracts, allowing the attacker to drain funds from the platform.

While investigations remain ongoing, blockchain security researchers quickly traced the movement of the stolen assets across multiple wallets, enabling the community to monitor the hacker’s activities in real time.

Rather than immediately pursuing legal action alone, AFX Trade adopted a strategy that has become increasingly common in the crypto industry. The protocol publicly offered the attacker a 30% white-hat bounty, allowing the hacker to retain roughly $7.25 million if the remaining funds are safely returned.

The proposal effectively gives the exploiter an opportunity to avoid further legal escalation while enabling users to recover the majority of the stolen assets.

This approach reflects a growing trend among DeFi projects following major exploits.

Instead of treating every attacker solely as a criminal, many protocols attempt to negotiate the return of funds by framing the incident as a white-hat security discovery.

Previous exploits involving major DeFi platforms have demonstrated that some attackers are willing to accept bounty agreements rather than risk long-term legal consequences and the increasing difficulty of laundering stolen crypto assets.

Despite the offer, there is no guarantee the attacker will cooperate. The blockchain’s transparency allows investigators, cybersecurity firms, and law enforcement agencies to track stolen assets indefinitely.

Even sophisticated laundering techniques, including cross-chain bridges, mixers, and decentralized exchanges, leave digital trails that can eventually be analyzed.

The exploit also highlights the growing importance of smart contract security as decentralized derivatives platforms continue expanding.

Perpetual DEXs manage substantial liquidity and leverage, making them attractive targets for hackers seeking high-value exploits. As total value locked across DeFi protocols increases, security audits alone may no longer be sufficient.

Continuous monitoring, formal verification, bug bounty programs, and real-time threat detection have become essential components of protocol defense. For Arbitrum, the incident does not necessarily reflect a weakness in the Layer 2 blockchain itself.

Instead, the exploit appears to stem from vulnerabilities within AFX Trade’s application logic. This distinction is important because blockchain infrastructure and decentralized applications operate under different security assumptions.

While Arbitrum continues to provide secure transaction settlement, individual protocols remain responsible for safeguarding their own smart contracts. The incident serves as another reminder that DeFi innovation carries significant operational risks alongside its financial opportunities.

Investors are increasingly evaluating not only yields and trading features but also audit histories, treasury management, insurance coverage, and incident response capabilities before committing capital.

As investigations continue, the crypto community will closely watch whether the attacker accepts AFX Trade’s 30% bounty offer. Regardless of the outcome, the $24.15 million exploit reinforces a familiar lesson.

In decentralized finance, security remains the foundation upon which trust, adoption, and long-term sustainability are built. Strengthening protocol resilience will be essential as the industry continues its rapid evolution toward more sophisticated on-chain financial markets.