25
05
2025

PAGES

25
05
2025

spot_img

PAGES

Home Blog

Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast Estimates 0.12% MoM on U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) For May

0

The Cleveland Fed’s Inflation Nowcast model estimated a 0.12% month-over-month increase in the US Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May 2025, as reported on May 23, 2025. This suggests a year-over-year CPI inflation rate of approximately 2.38%, slightly up from April’s 2.3% but indicating a continued trend of moderating inflation.

The model uses daily oil prices, weekly gasoline prices, and monthly CPI data to provide real-time estimates before official Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) releases, which for May 2025 are scheduled for June 11, 2025. The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast model estimating a 0.12% month-over-month US CPI increase for May 2025, translating to a year-over-year inflation rate of about 2.38%, carries several implications for economic policy, markets, and societal divides.

The modest CPI rise suggests inflation remains close to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, potentially allowing the Fed to maintain or slightly adjust its current interest rate stance. If the Fed perceives this as stable, it might pause rate hikes or cuts, signaling a “soft landing” scenario. However, if other data (e.g., core PCE, labor market indicators) show persistent price pressures, the Fed could lean toward tighter policy, impacting borrowing costs and economic growth.

A 2.38% inflation rate is unlikely to spook markets, as it aligns with recent trends of cooling inflation (down from 2022 peaks). Equities may remain stable or rally slightly, as investors prefer predictable inflation over volatility. Bond yields, particularly on Treasuries, could stay range-bound unless unexpected data shifts rate hike expectations. The dollar might weaken slightly if rate cut bets increase.

A low month-over-month CPI increase eases pressure on consumers, particularly for essentials like food and energy, though real wage growth remains critical for purchasing power. Businesses may face less cost-push inflation, but sectors sensitive to interest rates (e.g., housing, autos) could still struggle if rates remain elevated.

High-income households and asset holders (e.g., those with investments in stocks or real estate) benefit from stable inflation and potential market gains. They’re less affected by modest price increases due to higher disposable income. Low- and middle-income households, who spend a larger share of income on essentials (e.g., housing, groceries, energy), feel the pinch of even modest inflation. Real wages for these groups often lag, exacerbating financial strain.

Stable but positive inflation widens the wealth gap, as asset-rich households gain from market stability while wage-dependent households face eroding purchasing power. Urban areas, with higher exposure to global markets and diversified economies, may absorb modest inflation better due to stronger job markets and access to cheaper goods.

Rural areas, often reliant on fixed incomes or agriculture, may face disproportionate impacts from energy and food price fluctuations, even if overall CPI is low. Rural communities could feel economically sidelined, fueling perceptions of neglect compared to urban centers. Younger generations (e.g., Millennials, Gen Z) face challenges like student debt and high housing costs, which are less alleviated by low inflation if wages stagnate or interest rates remain high.

Older generations, particularly retirees on fixed incomes, benefit from stable inflation but remain vulnerable to healthcare cost spikes, which often outpace headline CPI. Persistent inflation, even if moderate, strains younger workers’ ability to build wealth, while retirees may feel secure but face specific cost pressures.

Modest inflation may reduce political pressure on policymakers to address immediate cost-of-living crises, but lingering perceptions of economic unfairness (e.g., housing affordability, wage stagnation) could fuel populist sentiment. Social media chatter on platforms like X often highlights divides, with some users praising cooling inflation as a policy win, while others argue it does little for those struggling with rent or groceries. This reflects a polarized narrative around economic progress.

The Nowcast’s 0.12% estimate is preliminary and subject to revision with the BLS’s official CPI release on June 11, 2025. Historical Nowcast accuracy varies, but it’s generally a reliable leading indicator. Global factors (e.g., oil price volatility, supply chain dynamics) could influence actual CPI, potentially widening or narrowing the projected rate.

The Cleveland Fed’s Nowcast suggests stable inflation, supporting economic stability but not fully addressing structural divides. Low- and middle-income groups, rural areas, and younger generations face ongoing challenges, while wealthier households and urban centers are better positioned to benefit. This dynamic risks deepening economic and social divides unless accompanied by policies targeting wage growth, housing, and cost equity.

Succinct Labs SP1 Hypercube Breakthrough Generates Proof-of-History For Ethereum Scalability

0

Succinct Labs has made a significant breakthrough with their SP1 Hypercube, a next-generation zero-knowledge virtual machine (zkVM) that can generate zero-knowledge proofs for Ethereum blocks in under 12 seconds, with an average proving time of 10.3 seconds for 93% of 10,000 tested mainnet blocks. This is a major advancement for Ethereum’s scalability, enabling faster and more efficient verification for Layer 1 throughput, native rollup security, and cross-chain interoperability without compromising decentralization.

SP1 Hypercube proves Ethereum blocks in real-time (under 12 seconds), a feat previously considered near-impossible, using a cluster of ~200 NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPUs. It reduces recursive proof overhead by 40% with a new cross-table lookup system and uses multilinear polynomial-based proof systems, achieving up to 5x better latency and cost compared to its predecessor, SP1 Turbo.

The prover and verifier code are open-source, aligning with blockchain’s ethos of transparency, and the hardware cost for a proving cluster is estimated at ~$100k-$400k, making it feasible for broader adoption. This enables trustless bridging, rollup optimizations, and supports projects like Aerius Labs for storage proofs and OP Succinct for ZK rollups.

Succinct introduced the $PROVE token to incentivize its decentralized prover network, facilitating proof generation for various applications like blockchains, AI agents, and games. This development is seen as a “space race” milestone for zero-knowledge proofs, with implications for scaling Ethereum’s ecosystem while maintaining security and decentralization. The tech is still undergoing audits, with a production-ready release planned post-audit.

Implications of Succinct Labs’ SP1 Hypercube Breakthrough

Succinct Labs’ real-time Ethereum proof generation with SP1 Hypercube has far-reaching implications for the blockchain ecosystem, particularly for Ethereum and related technologies. Proving Ethereum blocks in ~10.3 seconds enables real-time validation, significantly boosting Layer 1 throughput without sacrificing decentralization. Enhances Layer 2 solutions like Optimistic Rollups and ZK-Rollups by providing rapid, trustless proof generation, reducing latency and costs for rollup operators (e.g., OP Succinct’s ZK rollup).

Cross-Chain Interoperability enables trustless bridges between Ethereum and other blockchains, improving asset transfers and data sharing with minimal latency. The PROVE token incentivizes a decentralized network of provers, potentially democratizing access to zero-knowledge (ZK) proof generation for various blockchains, AI agents, and gaming platforms.

Projects like Aerius Labs leverage SP1 for efficient storage proofs, addressing data availability challenges for rollups and other systems. Up to 5x better latency and cost compared to previous systems, with hardware costs (~$100k-$400k) making it viable for smaller organizations to participate. The open-source prover and verifier code encourage community contributions, fostering innovation and trust in the system.

ZK adoption lowers the barrier for ZK proof adoption across industries, potentially integrating with AI for verifiable computation or gaming for trustless state transitions. Real-time proofs maintain Ethereum’s security model without relying on trusted intermediaries, critical for rollups and bridges. Ongoing audits ensure robustness, with production readiness pending, reducing risks of vulnerabilities in deployment.

The ~$200k-$400k cost for a proving cluster (e.g., ~200 NVIDIA RTX 4090 GPUs) is affordable for institutions but may exclude smaller developers or communities, potentially centralizing proving power among well-funded entities. yAccess to high-end GPUs and stable infrastructure (power, cooling) may be limited in developing regions, creating a regional divide in participation. Implementing and maintaining ZK proof systems requires specialized knowledge, which may limit adoption to teams with strong cryptographic expertise.

Projects must adapt existing infrastructure to leverage SP1, which could slow adoption for smaller or less technically equipped teams. While the PROVE token aims to decentralize proving, wealth concentration among early adopters or large stakeholders could skew rewards, favoring those with significant token holdings or computing resources. gToken-based incentives introduce financial risks, as token value fluctuations could affect the economic viability of running provers.

If only a few entities can afford proving clusters, the network risks centralization, undermining the decentralized ethos of blockchain. As a leading innovator, Succinct Labs’ influence over standards or updates could create a dependency, though open-source code mitigates this to some extent. Large projects (e.g., Aerius Labs, OP Succinct) are already integrating SP1, while smaller projects may lag due to resource constraints, creating a competitive gap.

Not all blockchains may adopt SP1-compatible proofs, potentially fragmenting ZK adoption across ecosystems. Further optimizations or cloud-based proving solutions could lower hardware costs, making participation more inclusive. Community-driven tutorials and simplified integration tools could reduce the expertise barrier.

Transparent and equitable PROVE token distribution and governance can prevent wealth concentration. Leveraging the open-source model, the community can contribute to decentralizing and improving SP1, reducing reliance on a single entity. This breakthrough positions Ethereum and ZK technology for significant growth, but addressing the hardware, expertise, and economic divides will be crucial to ensuring equitable access and maintaining decentralization.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang Praises Trump’s Re-industrialization Policy, Calls It “Visionary”

0

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang has lauded President Donald Trump’s tech and trade policies as “very visionary,” aligning himself with the administration’s push to re-industrialize the U.S. economy and dominate the global technology race.

Speaking in Norrköping, Sweden, on Saturday, where he received an honorary doctorate from Linköping University, Huang applauded Trump’s sweeping effort to support U.S. technology firms, which has included scrapping Biden-era restrictions on AI chip exports to countries like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Sweden.

“The President would like American technology to win with Nvidia and American companies to sell chips all over the world and to generate revenues, tax revenues, invest and build in the United States,” Huang said.

Earlier, the CEO had called the Biden administration restrictions a “failure.”

“American technology companies were very successful in China four years ago. We have lost about 50% of the market share and competitors have grown,” he added, describing past restrictions as “a failure.”

Nvidia, the world’s most valuable chipmaker, announced it would be supplying its latest-generation AI data center platform to a consortium of Swedish companies, including telecom giant Ericsson and pharmaceutical firm AstraZeneca. This comes on the heels of similar partnerships in the Middle East after Trump rescinded a policy that would have limited the sale of advanced chips to certain regions.

“Manufacturing in the United States, securing our supply chain, having real resilience, redundancy and diversity in our manufacturing supply chain—all of that is excellent,” Huang said, aligning himself with Trump’s broader industrial strategy.

Dissent Within the Business Community

However, while Huang expressed confidence in the president’s approach, many others in the business community remain deeply skeptical. Many have noted that Trump’s escalating use of tariffs and threats—particularly his recent post suggesting a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods and a 50% tariff on European imports—risks destabilizing markets and dragging the U.S. and global economies into a downturn.

Although Trump’s tech policy has reopened the global supply chain for Nvidia, prompting Huang to embrace the ‘pro-industry’ posture, other business leaders have warned that his tariffs and trade disruptions may cause lasting damage. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce and the National Foreign Trade Council have repeatedly cautioned that high tariffs could backfire, raising consumer prices, damaging diplomatic relations, and cutting off U.S. companies from global markets.

Corporate leaders across industries—especially those heavily reliant on global supply chains—are also raising red flags.

“By definition, Trump’s tariffs will raise less money than expected. Tariffs increase costs for importers, which result in higher prices for the tariffed goods. Lower demand means fewer goods are imported, reducing tariff revenue. The higher the tariff, the larger the reduction,” said Peter Schiff, Chief Economist & Global Strategist at Euro
Pacific.

Auto manufacturers, semiconductor firms, and retailers warn that ongoing tariff threats are eroding long-term planning and destabilizing trade relationships painstakingly built over decades.

Even allies of Trump’s past economic policy, like former General Electric CEO Jeffrey Immelt, have expressed concern over the growing unpredictability.

“Business hates uncertainty, and that’s exactly what the current approach is feeding,” Immelt told CNBC last week. “You can’t operate global businesses with one eye on the stock ticker and the other on a presidential tweet.”

Nvidia’s Tightrope Walk

Nvidia has already suffered major setbacks in China, where its market share has plunged amid U.S. export restrictions and Beijing’s effort to build local alternatives. Now, with the easing of some restrictions under Trump, the company is trying to walk a geopolitical tightrope—keeping Western allies close while not losing access to vast overseas markets.

In China, where restrictions still apply, Nvidia is reportedly developing a stripped-down AI chip based on its new Blackwell architecture to maintain some market presence.

The company is also continuing its expansion in regions where Trump’s policies have opened doors, like the Middle East and Europe. However, even Huang has acknowledged that global trade tensions remain a significant risk to long-term growth.

This means that while Huang may see President Trump’s tech policies as a revival of American industrial power, the broader business community is increasingly divided. Though Nvidia looks to capitalize on Washington’s changing stance, others warn that Trump’s zero-sum tactics could provoke economic blowback of historic proportions.

Shell Urges Nigerian Companies to Step Up as $5bn Bonga Projects Signal Offshore Oil Boom

0

Shell Nigeria Exploration and Production Company Ltd. (SNEPCo) has urged Nigerian companies to urgently position themselves to take advantage of a growing wave of opportunities in the country’s offshore and shallow water oil and gas projects.

With massive deepwater projects such as Bonga Southwest Aparo, Bonga North, and the Bonga Main Life Extension on the horizon, SNEPCo says the time has come for indigenous firms to expand their capacity and move up the value chain — or risk being left behind.

The call was made by Ronald Adams, Managing Director of SNEPCo, while addressing stakeholders at the 5th Nigerian Oil and Gas Opportunity Fair (NOGOF), held Thursday in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State.

“Projects like Bonga Southwest Aparo, Bonga North, and Bonga Main Life Extension are not just investments in oil production — they are investments in Nigeria’s industrial future,” Adams said. “Nigerian companies must demonstrate that they are ready, not just in ambition but in technical depth and delivery capability.”

At the heart of Adams’ message is billions of dollars of Nigeria’s deepwater. Nigeria’s oil industry, long battered by pipeline sabotage, underinvestment, and policy inconsistency, is slowly clawing its way back, and the deepwater sector is leading that resurgence.

The $5 billion Bonga North project, a major expansion of the iconic Bonga field, reached the Final Investment Decision (FID) in 2025, giving it the green light to proceed into full development. Together with Bonga Southwest Aparo and the Life Extension project on Bonga Main, these projects are expected to inject significant capital into Nigeria’s oil sector, boost daily production, and create thousands of direct and indirect jobs.

Adams noted that if local companies can rise to the challenge, they stand to benefit immensely not just in revenue but also in technological advancement and international credibility.

He pointed to key service areas such as subsea systems fabrication, gas processing infrastructure, drilling support, FPSO maintenance, and mooring systems as avenues where Nigerian firms can expand their role — if they invest in the required competence and infrastructure.

SNEPCo’s optimism is grounded in what it sees as a proven track record. Since launching Nigeria’s first deepwater oil project in 2005 with the original Bonga field, SNEPCo has worked closely with Nigerian firms to build local capacity — from engineering design to fabrication and project execution.

According to Adams, this partnership has paid off. The Bonga Floating, Production, Storage, and Offloading (FPSO) vessel — a massive floating facility central to Shell’s operations — reached a historic milestone in February 2023 when it produced its one-billionth barrel of oil. Crucially, Nigerian companies played key roles in managing and maintaining this facility.

However, there is still a large gap to fill. Despite years of local content promotion, Nigerian companies continue to struggle to break into high-value segments of offshore oil operations, which are still dominated by international contractors. Industry insiders say this is due to both technical limitations and a lack of financial muscle.

A Regional Opportunity Beyond Nigeria

It’s not just Nigeria that’s on the cusp of a deepwater renaissance. According to a recent report, Nigeria, Ivory Coast, and Mozambique are projected to launch at least 10 offshore oil projects between 2026 and 2027. This broader regional boom offers even more incentive for Nigerian firms to build exportable skills and compete beyond the local market.

Shell sees Nigeria as a potential hub for deepwater oil services in West Africa — but only if its companies act fast.

It is believed that if Nigerian companies can meet the standards required, they won’t just execute Nigerian projects — they’ll be eligible to participate in projects across the continent.

Structural Gaps and Policy Challenges

Nigeria’s offshore oil development is often delayed by regulatory uncertainty, contract disputes, and lengthy approval timelines. Although the enactment of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA) in 2021 was meant to bring clarity, its implementation has been uneven, creating investor anxiety.

Local contractors also face barriers related to financing, insurance, and equipment procurement — problems that international players are better positioned to navigate.

Several Nigerian oil executives at the event quietly expressed concern that unless government agencies fast-track project approvals and reduce bureaucratic red tape, the opportunity being highlighted may once again be squandered.

A Bigger Vision of Raising National Output

Shell’s renewed emphasis on local participation is also tied to a broader national goal. In February 2025, SNEPCo projected that Nigeria could exceed 2.4 million barrels per day in oil production — but only if deepwater investments are fast-tracked and local capacity is scaled up to match project needs.

With most onshore and shallow water fields declining or compromised by theft and vandalism, offshore fields are now seen as Nigeria’s best shot at reversing years of production decline and revenue shortfalls.

The Nigerian government appears to agree. The Nigerian Content Development and Monitoring Board (NCDMB), which organized NOGOF, has repeatedly stressed that deepwater expansion must be accompanied by deeper local involvement, warning that outsourcing key contracts to foreign firms would amount to another missed opportunity.

USD1 Listing on Binance Could Solidify Its Role in the Stablecoin Market

0

Binance listed World Liberty Financial’s USD1 stablecoin on May 22, 2025, with trading starting at 12:00 UTC for the USD1/USDT pair. Deposits opened on the same day, with withdrawals available from May 23, 2025, at 12:00 UTC. USD1, launched by World Liberty Financial (WLFI) in April 2025, is a fiat-backed stablecoin pegged 1:1 to the U.S. dollar, backed by short-term U.S. Treasuries, dollar deposits, and cash equivalents, and managed by BitGo Trust Company under U.S. regulatory compliance.

It operates on Ethereum and BNB Chain, with plans to expand to other blockchains. The listing, with no fee (0 BNB), aims to boost USD1’s liquidity and visibility. USD1 has a market cap of $2.3 billion, ranking it among the top USD-backed stablecoins. The move aligns with growing U.S. regulatory momentum for stablecoins, notably the GENIUS Act. However, USD1’s ties to the Trump family have sparked concerns about potential conflicts of interest among some lawmakers.

Binance’s listing boosts USD1’s accessibility, likely increasing its trading volume and adoption in DeFi and crypto markets. With a $2.3 billion market cap, USD1 strengthens its position among top stablecoins like USDT and USDC, potentially attracting institutional and retail users seeking a U.S.-regulated stablecoin. USD1’s compliance with U.S. regulations, backed by BitGo Trust Company and pegged to U.S. dollar assets, aligns with growing regulatory clarity, particularly the GENIUS Act. This could position USD1 as a preferred stablecoin in a U.S. market increasingly favoring regulated digital assets, potentially pressuring non-compliant competitors.

USD1 enters a crowded stablecoin market dominated by Tether (USDT) and Circle (USDC). Its Ethereum and BNB Chain compatibility, with plans for broader blockchain support, could challenge existing players, especially if WLFI leverages Binance’s ecosystem for DeFi integrations. USD1’s association with the Trump family raises concerns about conflicts of interest, especially with Donald Trump’s vocal support for crypto and his administration’s pro-crypto stance. This could accelerate favorable crypto legislation but risks politicizing stablecoin adoption, potentially alienating users or regulators skeptical of centralized influence.

As a U.S.-backed stablecoin, USD1 could strengthen the dollar’s dominance in global crypto markets. However, it may face resistance in regions wary of U.S. financial oversight, potentially limiting its international reach compared to less regulated stablecoins. Supporters, including crypto enthusiasts and investors, view USD1’s listing as a step toward mainstreaming stablecoins, especially with U.S. regulatory backing. They see it as a win for innovation and financial inclusion, particularly in DeFi.

Critics, including some lawmakers and traditional finance advocates, worry about the Trump family’s involvement, fearing it could lead to biased policy-making or undermine regulatory impartiality. Concerns about transparency and potential market manipulation persist. USD1’s alignment with U.S. regulations and Treasuries appeals to American users and institutions, reinforcing dollar hegemony in crypto. The GENIUS Act’s support for stablecoins further emboldens this view.

Non-U.S. markets may resist USD1 due to its U.S.-centric regulatory framework and political ties, preferring decentralized or non-U.S.-backed stablecoins like DAI or USDT, which dominate in regions with less trust in U.S. oversight. Those favoring regulated, fiat-backed stablecoins see USD1 as a stable, trustworthy option for bridging traditional finance and crypto. Crypto purists may criticize USD1’s centralized structure and political connections, favoring algorithmic or decentralized stablecoins that align with blockchain’s ethos of independence from government influence.

The USD1 listing on Binance could solidify its role in the stablecoin market, leveraging regulatory clarity and Binance’s reach. However, its Trump family ties and U.S.-centric framework create a divide, fueling debates over political influence, regulatory fairness, and global adoption. While it strengthens U.S. crypto leadership, it risks alienating segments of the global crypto community wary of centralized control.