African airlines saw air cargo demand plummet by 13.4% year-on-year in March 2025, the steepest decline across all global regions, even as the international air cargo market recorded its strongest March performance in history, according to the latest report from the International Air Transport Association (IATA).
The March figures underscore an increasingly uneven global cargo recovery, with Africa’s decline standing in sharp contrast to the 4.4% growth in global air cargo demand, measured in cargo ton-kilometers (CTKs). For international operations, demand was even more robust, rising 5.5% compared to March 2024.
At a time when air cargo demand worldwide is buoyed by a mix of global industrial recovery, falling jet fuel prices, and front-loaded shipments amid looming U.S. tariff changes, the slump in Africa points to deeper issues in the region’s air logistics and trade corridors.
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“March cargo volumes were strong… a historic peak for the month,” said IATA Director General Willie Walsh, noting that future growth could still be tempered by unresolved trade tensions and global tariff uncertainty.
Capacity-Demand Mismatch
Ironically, while African demand plunged, available cargo capacity on the continent rose by 10.5% year-on-year. This growing disparity between supply and utilization underlines a mounting imbalance and inefficiency in Africa’s air cargo operations. Carriers appear to be adding capacity amid a shrinking market, a potentially costly mismatch that could further strain already thin profit margins.
This trend is particularly troubling given Africa’s dependence on air cargo for intra-regional trade and time-sensitive imports like pharmaceuticals, spare parts, and high-value perishables. Analysts say the disconnect may reflect broader structural challenges including weak regional integration, limited industrial production, and declining consumer demand in key African markets such as Nigeria, South Africa, and Kenya.
The continent’s underperformance comes at a time when the global economic backdrop is broadly improving. According to IATA, world industrial production grew by 3.2% year-on-year, and global trade volumes expanded by 2.9%. Inflation in major economies also eased, which is expected to support consumer demand and business investment.
For instance, the U.S. consumer price index fell to 2.4%, the EU averaged 2.5%, Japan saw inflation decline to 3.6%, and China’s deflationary trend eased to -0.1%. These trends contributed to stronger air cargo growth in other regions.
- Asia-Pacific carriers led globally with a 9.6% increase in demand and an 11.3% rise in capacity.
- North American airlines followed closely, recording a 9.5% increase in demand with capacity growing by 6.1%.
- European carriers saw demand rise by 4.5%, with capacity increasing by 2%.
- Latin American airlines posted a 5.8% growth in demand and a 4.7% capacity increase.
Only the Middle East, alongside Africa, recorded a decline in demand. Middle Eastern airlines saw a 3.2% drop, though this was partly attributed to strong base effects from early 2024 when maritime disruptions in the Red Sea drove temporary air cargo surges.
Trade Lanes Weakening
Particularly troubling for Africa is the decline in traffic along the Africa–Asia trade lane, which has historically been a vital corridor for bilateral trade involving raw materials and manufactured goods. With trade routes such as this underperforming, African carriers face heightened vulnerability to global shifts in trade and production.
This also casts doubt on the region’s readiness to benefit from initiatives like the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), which was envisioned to boost intra-African trade and logistics.
Industry analysts suggest that the persistent underperformance of African air cargo is less about cyclical market changes and more indicative of long-term structural weaknesses, including fragmented regulatory environments, poor infrastructure, high costs, and weak export diversification.
They added that without coordinated policy reforms, deeper regional integration, and investment in cargo infrastructure, African airlines may continue to lag behind their global peers, even during global upswings.
IATA’s report denotes that while global air cargo has entered a new phase of post-pandemic resilience, Africa remains an outlier, and not in a good way. The 13.4% drop in demand is seen to be more than just a quarterly anomaly, with some economists describing it as a wake-up call for policymakers, investors, and aviation stakeholders across the continent.