Nigeria has just 10 years to get many things right. We have one thing that could cause massive paralysis in the future: urbanization without industrialization. If you check more than 2,000 years of modern history, one thing is evident – rural urban migration typically happens with the urban areas already having decent amenities to support the population growth. In other words, as most global modern cities were urbanizing, critical infrastructures were available to support the translation.
But in some African cities like Lagos and PHC, we are seeing something different: urbanization is happening even though the cities are not ready. The implication is that if the expected 50% of Africans move to the cities, in decades, and the cities are unable to support them, many bad things will happen.
One of those bad things is that the cities cannot just cope, causing havoc. When the rate to provide amenities cannot cope with demand, the equilibrium points shift. Add climate change to it, it becomes scary. Africa must plan for its premature urbanization which is coming before the urban areas are ready. In this Harvard publication, I explained why Africa must build differently.
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This resonates. I live in Lagos and move around a lot. Very early in the morning the thousands of undocumented immigrants from the North jumping off trailers at different locations is something to be concerned about.
Back in school, my lecturer in Economics Mathematics, Prof Fonta Williams due to his speed in lecturing would always say, “It’s not how far but how well.” He can use an hour to teach 2 to 3 topics while some lecturers couldn’t complete one in more than a class. And it always sunk in.
Africa’s urbanization must be unique. China locked itself to the global economy and discovered itself. And boom the sleeping giant awoke as the French conqueror, Napoleon feared.
Prof, 10 years is more than enough if Nigeria and the rest of Africa will have the right leadership. See the miracles the new Zambian president, Hakainde Hichilema has achieved in just 1 year. Africa is another sleeping giant and will awake when Nigeria awakes. Everything rises and falls on Leadership —John Maxwell.
Nice perspective as always. This can be fixed if we have the right leadership in the continent
Put tertiary educational institutions in rural areas, dot them with R and D centres, create a manufacturing corridors, and you have markets that are not overly concentrated in those old urban areas.
How much does it cost to deliver them? Not so much, because it’s not coming from public purse, just deliberate policies, and the magic starts.
We are already talking about having three functional ports in Lagos, with Lekki and Badagry now in the midst. This is a state with a landmass of less than 5000km², and we still think we are great planners. The records say that almost 60% of containers from Lagos Ports are headed east, via roads of course.
Who has visited Akwa Ibom here? Everything you think Lagos has, that state has it much better, it’s the only state down south where you can comfortably site deep seaport and redraw the economic map of Nigeria, the waters there aren’t shallow like Port Harcourt or the excuse of pipelines distorting things.
When you don’t have plenty financial resources, you deploy the small one available to you in things with greatest impact. Between Lagos-Maidugry rail line and Lagos-Calabar line, which of the two commands greater economic returns?
Small minded people cannot build a great nation.