The anticipated Bitcoin Halving which is expected to occur on 20 April 2024, has spurred various analyses from several crypto analysts, as some suggest that this year’s halving event may likely deviate from previous occurrences.
The event which is considered one of the most eagerly anticipated events in the crypto market, has driven up the price of the digital asset. Several Bitcoin miners are reportedly accumulating rather than liquidating their holdings as they anticipate a bullish market.
It is understood that past Bitcoin halving events have been heralded by a reduced supply and heightened scarcity. While the Bitcoin halving has a proven record of occurrence every four years, several analysts have predicted that this year’s halving may diverge from previous patterns.
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Speaking on the forthcoming Halving event, co-founder of crypto exchange Nexo, Antoni Trenchev said, that this year’s halving event might take a twist as Bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle’s high.
In his words,
“The halving is the ultimate geek event for bitcoins, but the 2024 iteration takes it up a notch because reduced supply combined with fresh ETF demand creates an explosive cocktail. What makes this halving unique is Bitcoin has already surpassed the last cycle’s high something it’s never done ahead of the quadrennial event which makes trying to forecast the length and ferocity of this cycle much trickier.”
Several other analysts have warned against overly simplistic expectations of post-halving price surges, pointing out that Bitcoin’s price trajectory over the past years has been shaped by several external factors such as economic trends, monetary policies, the stock market, etc.
Co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, Arthur Hayes predicts Bitcoin will likely face selling pressure in the days before and after the mining-reward halving due April 20, a supposedly bullish event.
He wrote via a blog post that the narrative of the halving event being positive for crypto prices is well entrenched, further stating that most market participants agree on a certain outcome, while the opposite usually occurs. This according to him is why he believes bitcoin and crypto prices in general will slump around the halving. He further advised traders to abstain from trading until May.
However, Steven Lubka, a Coindesk columnist and head of private clients at Swan Bitcoin, noted that if there was ever a moment to be an optimist about a bullish market after the halving, it’s this year.
Traders have been advised to ensure proper risk management as past performance in the crypto market isn’t always indicative of future returns. Also, some have warned that dealing with a smaller supply every four years, the days of such a big impact on the Bitcoin price are likely behind.