In a significant economic development, the Argentine government achieved its first monthly budget surplus in nearly 12 years during January. This milestone comes as new President Javier Milei, a far-right libertarian who took office in December, continues to push for strong spending cuts and fiscal responsibility.
January marked the first full month in office for President Milei, and it ended with a positive balance for public-sector finances of US$589 million (approximately S$800 million) at the official exchange rate. This surplus includes payment of interest on the public debt. The achievement is noteworthy as it represents the first monthly financial surplus since August 2012 and the first surplus for a January since 2011.
President Milei has been actively negotiating with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) regarding Argentina’s US$44 billion loan. He has made it clear that achieving a balanced budget is non-negotiable. “The zero deficit is not negotiable,” stated Economy Minister Luis Caputo on February 16.
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Milei’s campaign promises include getting rid of the Central Bank and replacing the local currency with the dollar. His right-wing populist stance has resonated with voters who are frustrated with Argentina’s prolonged economic malaise. The country has been reeling from a devastating drought that severely impacted its cash crops.
Currently, Argentina has a 30-month $44 billion loan program with the IMF. Amidst this backdrop, Milei met virtually with IMF officials to discuss his economic vision for the nation. During this hour-long meeting, he assured them that his administration would not default on payments to the multilateral organization or any sovereign debts.
Milei outlined his Liberty Advances party platform, which includes several key points: Fiscal Adjustment. He proposes a significant fiscal adjustment, even more substantial than what the IMF demands. Opening Up the Economy, Milei aims to open Argentina’s economy further.
Labor Law Modernization, he advocates for modernizing labor laws. Deep State Reforms: His team plans to slash spending through comprehensive state reforms. Monetary Reform: Milei wants to end the Central Bank’s role in monetary policy.
Milei, an economist by training, advocates for sharp cuts in spending and a reduction of public debt as steps toward dollarization of the economy. His administration has already implemented significant economic reforms, including a 50% devaluation of the peso, lifting of price controls, and substantial interest rate increases. Despite these efforts, Argentina faces significant economic challenges. The country experienced an inflation rate of 20.6% in January.
Argentina faces significant economic challenges, and its history is marked by cycles of growth and dysfunction. Despite being Latin America’s second-largest country by area and the third-largest economy in the region, Argentina has defaulted on its sovereign debt nine times.
The country has leaned on funding from international institutions and, more recently, from China. The legacy of Peronism, a populist movement founded in the 1940s, has deeply divided Argentina’s political culture.
In recent years, Argentina has grappled with mounting debt, including tens of billions of dollars in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The election of anti-establishment President Javier Milei in 2023 appears to mark a sharp departure from the status quo.
President Milei has promised drastic economic and political restructuring, emphasizing greater cooperation with the United States and the West. This could include downgrading the Mercosur trade bloc and distancing itself from China, Argentina’s second-largest trade partner.
The economic situation in Argentina is dire. The country has experienced almost 100 per cent inflation in February 2023 — the highest level in 32 years. Galloping inflation has led to a phenomenon economists call ‘‘unanchored expectations,” where prices increase so rapidly that people lose track of what things are worth. Shopping becomes a treasure hunt as consumers compare prices across multiple supermarkets to find the best deals.