Artificial Intelligence (AI) is not just a technological revolution; it is a defining feature of the global economy, reshaping industries and redefining human progress. Nigeria, Africa’s most populous nation and one of its leading economies holds immense potential to become a key player in the AI landscape. Yet, as we analyze the data on private investment and academic output in AI from 2016 to 2023, a critical narrative emerges- one of missed opportunities, untapped potential, and the urgent need to align investment with research.
A Tale of Two Trends: Investments and Publications
Between 2016 and 2023, Nigeria witnessed significant fluctuations in private investment in AI. In 2016, investments peaked at $56.45 million, marking an auspicious start for AI development in the country. However, this enthusiasm quickly dissipated, with investments plummeting to zero in 2017. From 2018 to 2020, modest recovery efforts were observed, but these were far from the levels recorded in 2016. The resurgence in 2023, when investments reached $16.89 million, indicates renewed interest, possibly influenced by global trends and the increasing relevance of AI across sectors.
Conversely, scholarly publications on AI in Nigeria have shown a steady upward trajectory. From 138 publications in 2016 to 863 in 2023, this growth underscores the growing academic interest in AI, as well as the efforts of researchers to establish Nigeria as a hub of intellectual contribution in the field. Notable surges in 2019 and 2021 onward suggest enhanced research funding, international collaborations, or institutional emphasis on AI as a critical domain.
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Private Investment Trends
- 2016: The highest private investment ($56,450,351) was observed in 2016, which might indicate an early surge of interest or a significant project initiative during that year.
- 2017: A sharp decline to $0 indicates either a lack of documented investments or withdrawal of funding, which could reflect uncertainty or low confidence in AI prospects during that year.
- 2018-2020: Gradual recovery is observed, with investments fluctuating between $1,187,0116 (2018) and $3,140,936 (2020). This could reflect growing awareness or initial attempts to rebuild confidence in AI as a field.
- 2021: A significant drop to $2,000,000 may signify reduced private sector enthusiasm or focus on other priorities such as recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
- 2022-2023: A rebound is seen, culminating in $16,896,616 in 2023, possibly indicating renewed interest and confidence, likely spurred by global trends in AI and its increasing integration into industries.
Scholarly Publications Trends
- 2016-2023: Scholarly publications on AI show a consistent increase year-over-year, growing from 138 in 2016 to 863 in 2023. This steady rise signifies growing academic interest and capacity building in the AI domain.
- 2019-2023: Notable surges are seen in 2019 (353 publications) and 2021-2023 (849-863 publications). This could be attributed to increased research funding, the availability of digital platforms, or global trends emphasizing AI as a critical field.
The Disconnect: Why Investment and Research Are Out of Sync
Despite the growth in academic output, the relationship between private investment and research appears tenuous at best. For instance, the high investment in 2016 coincided with relatively low academic output (138 publications), while periods of low investment, such as 2017 and 2021, witnessed substantial growth in publications. This disconnect raises critical questions: Why hasn’t Nigeria’s burgeoning academic research in AI translated into consistent private-sector interest? And what does this mean for the future of AI in the country?
Possible explanations could be limited commercialisation of research, unpredictable funding patterns, global competition and local challenges. Despite these challenges, Nigeria’s AI ecosystem holds immense promise. The steady rise in scholarly output indicates a strong foundation of talent and intellectual capacity. To unlock this potential, Nigeria must bridge the gap between investment and research, creating an environment where innovation can thrive.
Exhibit 1: Private investment versus publications on artificial intelligence 2016-2023
The Future of AI in Nigeria
The year 2023 marks a turning point for Nigeria’s AI ecosystem. With private investment rebounding and academic output at an all-time high, the country stands at the cusp of a major transformation. However, to sustain this momentum, Nigeria must address the gaps in its AI landscape.
Nigeria will be able to create a thriving AI ecosystem that drives innovation, creates jobs, and positions the country as a leader in AI on the African continent and beyond when private investment with academic research, fostering collaboration, and implementing supportive policies are more prioritised.
Our analyst notes that Nigeria’s journey in AI is a story of resilience, ambition, and potential. But the road ahead requires deliberate action. Policymakers, academics, and industry leaders must come together to build an ecosystem where innovation is not just encouraged but also rewarded. With the right strategies, Nigeria can not only bridge the gap between investment and research but also establish itself as a global leader in AI, shaping the future of technology and society.
