Bitcoin surged past the $121,000 mark on Thursday for the first time since mid-August, extending its momentum even as the United States government entered a shutdown.
The shutdown, which began on October 1 after lawmakers failed to agree on a funding bill, has created uncertainty for federal workers but not necessarily for risk assets. Historically, shutdowns have not been outright bearish for equities or digital assets.
Bitcoin has in recent times shown remarkable resilience. BeInCrypto Markets data revealed that BTC is already up 5.5% this month, living up to its “Uptober” reputation. Traders often use the term to describe October’s historically bullish record, with Bitcoin averaging 14.4% gains in October since 2013.
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After dipping as low as $114,000 on October 1, Bitcoin quickly rebounded, climbing back to the $118,700–$118,900 range by October 2, with intraday highs of $119,500. The crypto asset which saw a slight retracement from its recent high of $121k, is currently trading at $120,282 at the time of writing this report.
With October kicking off with a strong start, some analysts are calling for a year-end rally to $200,000. Market veterans describe “Uptober” as a self-reinforcing cycle of calendar flows, increased risk appetite, and improved liquidity that often tilts volatility toward the upside.
Gadi Chait, Head of Investment at Xapo Bank, emphasized Bitcoin’s staying power.
He said, “October has historically been a bullish month for Bitcoin, and early signs suggest this year may be no exception. Even the US government shutdown that began at the start of the month hasn’t derailed momentum, showing how resilient Bitcoin has become of late. Far from being a speculative outlier, Bitcoin continues to show its ability to defy the odds and assert itself as a digital asset with staying power.”
Adding to the bullish narrative, Michael Saylor’s digital asset treasury firm, Strategy Inc., has reached a record valuation. The firm now holds over 11,085 BTC accumulated in the last seven weeks pushing its crypto portfolio above the market capitalization of major banks such as BNY Mellon, Barclays, Deutsche Bank, and ING. Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings are now worth more than the GDP of several nations.
Strategy is the 800-pound gorilla of DATs, holding a whopping 48% of the total amount of BTC held by around 266 public and private companies.
Amid Bitcoin bullish price projections, Przemyslaw Kral, CEO of zondacrypto, cautioned that the U.S government shutdown could impact the crypto industry.
He said, “The US government shutdown, now a reality, can damage the crypto industry by disrupting the SEC and CFTC, which are vital to global digital asset markets.”
The Road Ahead: $124K or Correction?
The surge to $121,000 leaves traders asking whether Bitcoin’s rally is sustainable. With prices nearing historical highs and indicators flashing overbought conditions, analysts are divided. Some warn of a potential correction, while others point to structural strength that could propel BTC toward $124,000 and beyond.
The ongoing U.S. government shutdown, now in its second day, adds another layer of uncertainty. Prediction platform Polymarket data suggests the stalemate in Congress could extend well into mid-October or longer, keeping markets on edge.
Looking further ahead, some analysts remain extremely bullish. Bitwise Asset Management reiterated in late August that Bitcoin could still reach $200,000 by year-end, citing strong institutional demand and macroeconomic tailwinds.
For now, Bitcoin’s resilience is undeniable. Whether this rally turns into another historic leg upward or faces a cooling-off correction remains the key question for traders navigating Uptober.