Bitcoin has moved above the $85,000 to $85,500 sell wall that Glassnode identified as an important resistance zone last week, giving the market a fresh signal of strength. The breakout matters because it suggests that buyers have been able to absorb a significant amount of selling pressure.
However, the bigger question now is whether this demand can continue pushing Bitcoin higher or whether investors who are already sitting on profits will use the rally as an opportunity to sell.
Unlike previous rallies driven heavily by derivatives or exchange-traded funds, much of the recent activity appears to be taking place on-chain. Bitcoin’s active addresses, transaction fees and transfer volumes have all moved above their recent high bands.
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This suggests that network activity is increasing alongside the price, providing a stronger fundamental backdrop for the move. Realized capitalization growth is running hot. The realized cap is an important measure because it tracks the value of Bitcoin based on the price at which coins last moved on-chain rather than simply using the current market price.
Strong growth in realized capitalization can indicate that fresh capital is entering the Bitcoin ecosystem and that coins are changing hands at increasingly higher prices. Another encouraging signal is the behavior of larger Bitcoin holders. Santiment has tracked accumulation among wallets holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC since July.
These wallets represent a substantial pool of capital, and continued accumulation from them could provide an important source of support if Bitcoin experiences short-term volatility. Their behavior may indicate that some investors remain confident in the longer-term outlook despite the recent price increases.
The derivatives market is not showing the same level of expansion. Futures open interest has slipped back inside its established range, while options open interest declined following the quarterly expiry. This could be interpreted as a sign that speculative leverage is not currently driving the entire rally.
A price increase accompanied by controlled derivatives positioning can sometimes be healthier than a move fueled by rapidly increasing leverage. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund netflows have also remained positive, although they are considerably smaller than during stronger periods of institutional demand.
This means ETFs are still providing support, but they are not currently delivering the overwhelming buying pressure that could independently propel Bitcoin through major resistance levels. The next important level identified by Glassnode is around $96,700, corresponding to Bitcoin’s mean MVRV price.
Reaching this level would represent another major test for the market. Yet the path toward it may not be straightforward. Short-term holder gains and profit-taking activity have both moved significantly above their high bands, meaning many recent buyers have substantial unrealized profits.
That creates a delicate balance. If recent buyers continue holding their coins, Bitcoin could have the foundation needed to extend its rally toward $96,700 and potentially beyond. Continued accumulation by larger holders would strengthen that case.
However, if short-term investors decide to lock in profits as Bitcoin approaches higher resistance, the market could quickly shift. Demand that has pushed Bitcoin through $85,500 could become additional supply, creating selling pressure precisely when the market needs fresh buyers.
The breakout is encouraging, but confirmation will depend on what happens next. Bitcoin has cleared an important barrier, while on-chain activity suggests genuine participation is increasing. The crucial test is whether holders remain confident enough to resist taking profits. If they do, the road toward $96,700 could become increasingly realistic.