Bitcoin has rallied about 10% recently – from its weekly low amid the broader recovery from a 50% crash off its all-time high of around $126,000.
As of now, BTC is trading around $64,928, down roughly 2% over the past 24 hours but still showing strength in the face of volatility. This uptick comes after a period of heavy liquidations and fear in the market.
The most recent weekly candle has turned green (close higher than open), ending a streak of five consecutive red candles (declines). In Bitcoin’s history, snapping such a losing streak has often preceded recoveries, though it’s no guarantee – we’ve seen similar patterns in past bear markets lead to further downside before true bottoms form.
Google Search Spike
As per Kalshi’s alert, Google searches for “buy bitcoin” have spiked to a five-year high, reaching levels last seen during the 2021 bull market peak. This surge, peaking around February 22–25, suggests retail investors are piling back in, potentially driven by FOMO as prices stabilize.
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Historically, these search volumes have aligned with market turning points, but they can also signal over-enthusiasm that precedes corrections. Taken together, these factors paint a cautiously optimistic picture: Retail interest is returning, technicals are improving, and on-chain data; like whale accumulation mentioned in some reports supports a potential bottom.
That said, Bitcoin remains highly volatile, with prediction markets like Kalshi assigning high odds to further dips below $60,000 this year. Broader factors, such as regulatory news, macroeconomic shifts, or geopolitical tensions, could sway things either way.
The market has faced sharp reversals and renewed pressure. Bitcoin is trading around $64,000–$65,000 with fluctuations reported between ~$63,000 lows and highs near $66,000 today, down roughly 2–3% in the last 24 hours and reflecting broader weakness.
This follows a brief rally push earlier in the week; attempts toward $68,000–$70,000, but momentum has stalled amid external shocks. The weekly candle did close green last week, marking a technical relief signal and aligning with historical patterns where such reversals sometimes precede recoveries though not always sustainably.
The “buy bitcoin” Google search surge peaking around February 25 hit multi-year highs, as flagged by Kalshi and echoed in reports. This often coincides with dip-buying enthusiasm and FOMO, supporting short-term bounces—but it can also signal overheated retail positioning before corrections.
These bullish signals clashed with major headwinds, leading to mixed but predominantly bearish near-term outcomes: US and Israeli strikes on Iran caused a flash crash in risk assets, including Bitcoin dropping to ~$63,000 intraday today.
This erased ~$128 billion in crypto market cap in the immediate aftermath, with BTC sliding below $64,000. The “digital gold” safe-haven narrative weakened amid global panic, as high-risk assets like crypto sold off harder than traditional ones.
Perpetual funding rates plunged to -6%; a three-month low, indicating heavily crowded shorts and potential for a short squeeze if price rebounds sharply. However, open interest remains elevated, and liquidations have been high on both sides—contributing to volatility rather than sustained upside.
Bitcoin remains down significantly (46–50%) from its 2025 all-time high near $126,000. The recent green weekly candle and search spike fueled optimism; whale accumulation signals and ETF inflows in prior sessions, but sentiment flipped bearish again. Prediction markets show low odds (12%) of dipping below $60,000 today, though downside risks persist if geopolitical tensions escalate.
If the short squeeze materializes or risk appetite returns via macro stabilization, we could see a push back toward $68,000–$70,000 resistance. On-chain data has shown some resilience. However, macro factors like tariff concerns, recession signals, or further Middle East escalation could push toward $60,000 or lower tests.
The confluence created a classic “relief rally” setup mid-week, but today’s events highlight crypto’s sensitivity to global risk-off moves. It’s a volatile environment—bullish technicals and retail FOMO provided temporary lift, but external catalysts dominated. This could be a local bottom if panic subsides, or prelude to more downside if fear persists.