Bitcoin is on track to record its second-worst fourth quarter (Q4) in history, highlighting a sharp reversal in what is traditionally the cryptocurrency’s strongest period of the year.
The worst Q4 on record occurred in 2018, during the depths of the crypto winter, when Bitcoin plunged roughly 42% amid collapsing investor confidence and widespread market capitulation. While the current downturn is less severe, Q4 2025 decline of about 23% still places it firmly among Bitcoin’s darkest quarters.
Notably, the gap between the worst year (2018) and the second-worst (2025) is significant. However, 2025 stands out sharply from other weak years such as 2014, 2019, and 2022, pushing it beyond what many would consider a mild correction and firmly into crash territory.
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Price Pressure Mounts as Bitcoin Slips
Bitcoin’s price slipped below $87,000, falling nearly 1% in the latest session as multiple pressures converged. After weeks of trading sideways within the $85,000–$90,000 range, the flagship crypto asset is struggling to establish strong support, leaving traders increasingly cautious.
At the time of writing, BTC is trading at $87,183, reflecting persistent uncertainty and muted risk appetite across the market.
Q4 Underperformance Breaks a Longstanding Pattern
Historically, Q4 has been Bitcoin’s strongest quarter, with an average return of approximately 77%. Investors often rely on year-end rallies to salvage annual performance. However, the current –23% decline represents an underperformance of nearly 100 percentage points relative to historical expectations.
The year itself has been emotionally taxing for investors. After a weak start, mid-year gains particularly in Q2 have largely been erased by Q4 losses. Ending the year with a sharp drawdown has amplified pessimism and investor fatigue.
Bitcoin began Q4 on a strong footing, surging to a new all-time high of around $126,000 in early October. The optimism, however, faded quickly. Prices reversed sharply, catching many market participants off guard.
According to a December 2025 CryptoQuant report, the primary driver of the downturn is “demand exhaustion.” Key groups that fueled the 2024–2025 rally such as spot ETF buyers and corporate treasury allocators, have largely paused their accumulation, removing a major source of buying pressure.
Whale Selling Adds to Downside Pressure
Onchain data suggests that large holders have been actively reducing exposure. Reports indicate that Bitcoin whale holdings declined by 161,294 BTC over the past 12 months, a pattern that analysts say typically appears before or during deeper market corrections, not after prices have bottomed.
In total, whales are estimated to have sold approximately 161,294 BTC in 2025, worth nearly $15 billion, according to a Zycrypto report. Much of this distribution occurred during critical market phases, weighing heavily on bullish sentiment. Analysts warn that if whale selling continues into 2026, achieving a sustained recovery could prove challenging.
Despite heavy whale selling, not all large investors are exiting. Medium-sized holders often referred to as “sharks,” holding between 100 and 1,000 BTC—have been net buyers throughout the year.
Their steady accumulation has helped absorb some of the selling pressure and has sparked speculation that market influence may be gradually shifting away from legacy whales toward a broader base of participants.
Bitcoin continues to hover near $87,000, while onchain activity and exchange liquidity metrics indicate a low-participation environment, limiting the asset’s ability to break convincingly above $90,000.
Technically, BTC remains range-bound between $85,000 and $90,000, repeatedly failing to sustain upside momentum. The price is currently trading below the monthly volume-weighted average price (VWAP), reinforcing a neutral-to-cautious outlook.
However, some constructive signals persist. Bitcoin has printed multiple golden crosses this month, and historically, the asset rarely closes two consecutive years in the red.
Outlook
Despite weak sentiment, analysts stress that the current downturn does not resemble a structural collapse. According to CryptoQuant, if selling pressure persists, Bitcoin could retest the $70,000 to $56,000 range in the coming months before establishing a stronger base for recovery.
For now, Bitcoin’s decline appears driven by policy shocks, institutional portfolio rotation, and market mechanics, rather than a breakdown in long-term demand.