Bitcoin could be entering a new phase of sustained growth rather than explosive, short-term rallies, according to Bitwise Chief Investment Officer Matt Hougan.
He says increasing institutional adoption and a maturing market structure may support steady returns for Bitcoin over the next decade, even as volatility gradually declines.
Speaking on CNBC on Friday, the crypto expert said he expects Bitcoin to enter a prolonged period of gradual appreciation marked by lower volatility. He described the outlook as a “10-year grind upward” characterized by strong but unspectacular returns, punctuated by periodic pullbacks.
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Hougan maintained his bullish outlook for 2026, reiterating a forecast he first shared in July months before Bitcoin surged to a new all-time high of $125,100 in October. “Next year should be positive,” he said, expressing confidence that the broader trend remains intact despite recent market weakness.
Using what he described as conservative assumptions, Hougan developed a valuation model that projects Bitcoin’s price could climb to as high as $1.3 million by 2035. His outlook reflects growing confidence that Bitcoin’s maturing market structure and increasing adoption could support sustained long-term returns, positioning it as a major investment asset rather than a speculative trade.
In recent times, Bitcoin’s market structure has significantly improved. Liquidity is deeper than ever, with high trading volumes across regulated exchanges and the presence of institutional-grade custodians and brokers.
The introduction of spot Bitcoin ETFs in major markets has further strengthened this structure, allowing traditional investors to gain exposure through familiar, regulated vehicles. These developments have reduced extreme volatility compared to earlier cycles and made price discovery more efficient.
Notably, institutional participation has reshaped Bitcoin’s investor base. Pension funds, asset managers, hedge funds, and publicly listed companies now view Bitcoin as a strategic allocation rather than a short-term trade. Many hold it as a hedge against inflation, currency debasement, and macroeconomic uncertainty, aligning Bitcoin more closely with assets like gold than with high-risk speculative instruments.
However, Bitcoin’s recent decline has reignited debate around the relevance of its traditional four-year market cycle. The crypto asset in October 2025 hit an all time above $126,000 before retracing to the $80,000 zone. BTC is currently trading at $87,627 at the time of this report.
Hougan attributed the recent sell-off largely to fast-moving retail investors who exited positions toward the end of the year in anticipation of a cyclical downturn. In contrast, he argued that Bitcoin’s downside has been cushioned by consistent institutional inflows. Unlike past cycles that saw drawdowns of up to 60%, Bitcoin’s current decline has been more contained due to what Hougan described as “persistent, slow-moving institutional buying.”
ReserveOne CIO Sebastian Beau noted that it remains unclear whether the cycle is still valid, pointing out that Bitcoin has fallen roughly 30% from its October peak to around $87,000 in a relatively short period. The timing of the October highs, which closely resembles peaks from previous cycles, has fueled speculation that 2026 could be a down year.
Still, caution remains among some market veterans. Renowned trader Peter Brandt has warned that Bitcoin could fall as low as $60,000 by the third quarter of 2026.
At the time of publication, Bitcoin was trading at $87,818, down 3.81% over the past 30 days, according to CoinMarketCap.
Outlook
Looking ahead, Bitcoin appears poised to transition into a more mature investment phase, where long-term fundamentals matter more than short-term hype.
If Hougan’s thesis holds, the coming years may be defined less by dramatic boom-and-bust cycles and more by steady, compounding growth supported by institutional demand, improved infrastructure, and broader acceptance within traditional finance.
Overall, the outlook suggests a Bitcoin market that is growing up less explosive, but potentially more resilient. For investors, this implies a shift in mindset, from chasing rapid rallies to positioning for long-term value creation in an asset increasingly viewed as a core component of the global financial system.