Bitcoin extended its recent pullback on Thursday, briefly dipping below the $88,000 mark after falling about 1.5% over the past 24 hours. The decline came amid rising geopolitical tensions and growing uncertainty across global financial markets, prompting investors to rotate away from risk crypto assets.
The broader crypto sell-off coincided with renewed tensions between the United States and Iran. President Donald Trump intensified pressure on Tehran to negotiate a new nuclear deal, warning that a “massive armada” of U.S. warships was moving toward the region.
Retail sentiment reflected the unease. On Stocktwits, sentiment around Bitcoin deteriorated from “bearish” to “extremely bearish” within a day, underscoring weakening short-term confidence among retail traders.
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Technically, analysts remain divided on Bitcoin’s near-term direction. BTC has repeatedly failed to reclaim the $90,000 level as support, keeping downside risks in focus. Analyst Ted Pillows noted that another test of the $88,000 zone would occur before any meaningful rebound. “BTC failed to reclaim the $90,000 level again,” he said, adding that a sweep of support could precede the next bounce.
Crypto research firm CryptoQuant flagged an early warning signal, noting that Bitcoin’s “supply in loss” metric has begun to rise. Historically, such a shift has appeared during the early stages of prolonged bear markets. While current levels remain far below those seen during full capitulation phases, CryptoQuant emphasized that the change in trend itself is significant, suggesting a potential shift toward a more bearish market structure rather than a brief correction.
Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects that uncertainty. Trading around $88,016 at the time of this report, the asset has struggled to regain momentum after sliding from yearly highs near $98,000. Buying pressure has weakened, erasing gains recorded earlier in the year.
Meanwhile, capital has continued to flow into precious metals. Gold and silver extended their record-breaking rallies, reinforcing the divergence between traditional safe havens and crypto assets. Gold surged 2.6% in the past day to a new all-time high of $5,597 per ounce, while silver climbed 1.3% to $119.3 per ounce. Year to date, gold is up roughly 28.6%, while silver has gained more than 65%, reflecting sustained demand and strong investor interest.
Despite crypto’s underperformance, some analysts see a potential rotation ahead. Market commentary from Milk Road highlighted a recurring pattern in which Bitcoin tends to follow gold’s price movements with an approximate six-month lag. If that historical relationship holds, Bitcoin’s current stagnation could precede a delayed upside move.
Macro investor Raoul Pal echoed that view, arguing that Bitcoin lagging gold is not unusual at this stage of the cycle. According to Pal, gold typically moves first, while Bitcoin catches up later as global liquidity conditions improve. He also suggested that many investors are currently underweight crypto, believing the bull cycle has ended. Should prices begin to rise again, he expects a rapid shift in positioning as investors rush to regain exposure.
Outlook
In the near term, Bitcoin faces a challenging environment. Geopolitical risks, fragile sentiment, and bearish on-chain signals could keep price action volatile, with the $88,000 level acting as a critical support zone. A sustained move above $90,000 remains necessary to restore bullish momentum.
Over the medium term, the outlook is more nuanced. If global macro conditions stabilize and liquidity continues to expand as reflected in the ongoing rally in gold and silver, Bitcoin could follow with a delayed catch-up move.