Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL), the issuer of the USDC stablecoin, saw its stock surge approximately 35%, following a strong Q4 2025 earnings report that beat expectations.
The company reported: Adjusted EPS of $0.43 (beating consensus estimates around $0.16–$0.35, depending on the source). Revenue and reserve income of $770 million up 77% YoY, exceeding estimates of ~$745 million. Adjusted EBITDA of $167 million up 412% YoY, beating expectations.
USDC circulation reached $75.3 billion (+72% YoY), with on-chain transaction volume hitting $11.9 trillion (+247% YoY), highlighting booming demand for stablecoins amid broader crypto market challenges. This performance defied a late-2025 crypto downturn and positioned Circle as a resilient infrastructure play in digital finance.
The stock closed up ~35.47% at around $83.14 on the earnings day from a prior close near $61, marking its largest single-day gain since its IPO. The rally has continued in pre-market/early trading, with shares trading in the $85–$89 range up further ~3–7% intraday in various reports, even as broader markets and Bitcoin pull back slightly. This move reflects growing confidence in stablecoins as essential financial plumbing, with Circle expanding beyond just USDC issuance into payments networks and blockchain infrastructure.
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The 35% surge in Circle Internet Group (NYSE: CRCL) stock on February 25, 2026, following its Q4 2025 earnings beat has several notable short- and medium-term impacts across the company, the stablecoin sector, broader crypto markets, and investor sentiment.
CRCL shares have extended gains, trading in the $87–$89 range up ~5–7% from the prior close of ~$83.14. This reflects sustained momentum, with high trading volume; over 60 million shares on earnings day vs. average ~12 million and a potential short squeeze (short interest was elevated pre-earnings).
Analysts have responded positively—e.g., Needham lowered its target to $130; still implying upside from current levels, while others like Citi maintain bullish views with targets up to $243, citing Circle’s positioning in digital payments and AI-driven commerce. The rally has pushed the stock up ~5% year-to-date after earlier weakness, breaking technical resistance like the 50-day moving average.
The move has spilled over, boosting related stocks like Coinbase (COIN, up in sympathy) amid renewed optimism in regulated crypto infrastructure. Retail sentiment on platforms like Stocktwits flipped to “extremely bullish” for CRCL. The beat underscores operating leverage—revenue up 77% YoY to $770M, driven by USDC circulation hitting $75.3B (+72% YoY) and on-chain volume at $11.9T (+247% YoY).
Q4 net income reached $133M (EPS $0.43 vs. ~$0.16 expected), with adjusted EBITDA surging 412%. This highlights resilience despite broader crypto headwinds and rate cuts compressing reserve yields. Management reiterated a medium-term 40% CAGR for USDC, 38–40% RLDC margins, and controlled 2026 adjusted operating expenses ($570–$585M).
Initiatives like the Circle Payments Network (55+ institutions enrolled), Arc blockchain mainnet launch (on track for 2026), and AI agent integration (potential for massive autonomous transactions) position Circle as expanding beyond pure reserve income into payments and infrastructure.
Q4 profitability contrasts with a full-year 2025 net loss (~$70M), signaling improving margins as scale kicks in and costs stabilize—key for long-term sustainability. USDC’s outperformance; gaining market share despite crypto winter reinforces stablecoins as essential “financial plumbing” for 24/7 global settlements, cross-border payments, prediction markets, and emerging AI commerce.
Regulatory tailwinds like the GENIUS Act have helped establish a clearer U.S. framework, benefiting regulated issuers like Circle over less-compliant competitors. The rally bucks broader crypto weakness, suggesting investors view stablecoins as a defensive, high-growth play decoupled from volatile token prices.
It could accelerate institutional inflows and partnerships, with USDC potentially approaching $100B+ circulation if 40% growth holds. Sustaining momentum depends on navigating rate compression (lower yields on reserves), competition from banks entering tokenized assets, and potential H1 2026 slowdowns tied to crypto volatility.
Analysts note the need to diversify revenue beyond interest income. This earnings-driven surge solidifies Circle’s role as a leading stablecoin infrastructure player, boosting confidence in the sector’s maturation into a core part of digital finance in 2026 and beyond.
Nvidia Reported Positive Fiscal Q4 2025 Earnings Beating Expectations
Nvidia (NVDA) reported its fiscal Q4 2025 earnings for the quarter ended January 25, 2026 after market close on February 25, 2026, and it was a strong beat on both revenue and earnings expectations.
Revenue: $68.1 billion up 73% year-over-year and 20% sequentially, beating analyst estimates around $66 billion. Adjusted EPS: $1.62 beating estimates of about $1.53. Data Center revenue (the AI-driven core): A record $62.3 billion, up 75% year-over-year and 22% sequentially, reflecting continued massive demand for AI chips like Blackwell.
Full fiscal 2026: Record annual revenue of $215.9 billion, up 65% from the prior year. Guidance was also impressive, with Q1 fiscal 2027 revenue expected at $78 billion (±2%), well above Wall Street’s consensus around $72-73 billion. The stock reacted positively ahead of and immediately after the report.
NVDA closed up 1.4% on February 25, 2026, at around $195.56 from a previous close, which aligns exactly with your statement. Pre-market and after-hours trading showed some fluctuations, with initial gains in extended sessions before some pullback the next day as markets digested the “beat and raise” but weighed it against sky-high expectations and broader AI sentiment.
This continues Nvidia’s streak of crushing earnings amid the AI boom, with CEO Jensen Huang emphasizing accelerating adoption and no signs of slowdown in Big Tech’s AI infrastructure spending. It’s another validation of Nvidia’s dominance in the AI chip space, though the market’s reaction has been somewhat muted relative to past blowouts due to the lofty bar already set.
NVDA closed at around $195.56; up 1.4% on the day, pre-earnings anticipation. In after-hours and into February 26 trading, the stock has faced selling pressure: It opened higher but has declined significantly intraday, trading down roughly 4-5% around $186-187 range in mid-morning sessions, with volumes elevated.
This pullback reflects “sell the news” dynamics: The results were excellent; revenue $68.1B beat $66B estimates, EPS $1.62 beat ~$1.53, data center up 75% YoY to $62.3B, and Q1 FY2027 guidance of ~$78B far exceeded consensus ($72-73B). Yet expectations were so lofty that anything short of a massive surprise triggered profit-taking.
Analysts remain bullish overall — Sanford C. Bernstein raised its price target to $300 implying ~50-60% upside from recent levels with an “outperform” rating. But near-term sentiment shows caution amid high valuations (P/E around 48-50x forward earnings).
AI Market and Demand Implications
This report reinforces that the AI boom is far from over and may even be accelerating: No slowdown in hyperscaler spending: Big Tech continues pouring billions into AI infrastructure, with Nvidia’s Blackwell chips seeing “accelerating adoption.”
CEO Jensen Huang highlighted “off the charts” demand, skyrocketing agentic AI, robotics; robotaxis via Tesla and Waymo fleets, and no signs of pullback. Data center dominance >91% of revenue underscores Nvidia’s moat in AI training/inference chips, with record full-year FY2026 revenue of $215.9B up 65% YoY.
However, the muted reaction highlights growing investor skepticism: Concerns about an AI bubble or unsustainable capex levels. Potential competition from AMD, custom chips (Google TPUs, Amazon Trainium), or supply constraints. Questions on whether returns on AI investments will justify the spend long-term.
The strong guidance counters some fears, suggesting sustained momentum into 2026-2027. Nvidia’s influence is massive ~7-8% of S&P 500 weight, so its moves can sway indices. The initial post-earnings dip weighed on tech, but the prior day’s rally (pre-earnings) helped erase some weekly losses.
It eases short-term AI disruption worries, boosting confidence in the “Magnificent Seven” and AI infrastructure plays. Broader indices opened mixed and subdued on February 26, with some relief from Nvidia and Oracle news but offset by tariff and geopolitical noise.
This continues Nvidia’s streak of crushing quarters, validating its central role in the AI revolution. If demand holds, NVDA could push toward new highs, especially with Blackwell ramp-up and emerging AI applications. Risks include macro slowdowns, competition, or capex fatigue — but nothing in the report suggests an imminent peak.
The implications are positive for Nvidia’s fundamentals and the AI narrative, but the market is pricing in perfection, leading to volatility on even strong results. Watch for stabilization in trading today and analyst updates for further direction.