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Climate Change and Insights from Nigeria’s Mitigation and Adaptation Paths in 6 Years

Climate Change and Insights from Nigeria’s Mitigation and Adaptation Paths in 6 Years

Since 2015, when political and corporate leaders agreed on a series of steps to make the planet habitable for all living things, Nigeria and other countries have been viewed as places where climate change has a significant impact. This is mostly based on people’s and industries’ efforts to produce and consume tangible and intangible products and services.

According to one recent report, Nigeria is ranked 47th among countries that have lost millions of dollars in purchasing power parity. When losses per unit of GDP were assessed in 2021, using data from 2000, it ranked 89th.  With the ongoing effects of climate change, both leaders can no longer conduct business as usual, which frequently results in financial and human losses. This is one of the reasons why interested parties meet on a regular basis to discuss climate change issues and demands.

The debates resulted in the creation of a number of policy and implementation tools. Nigeria has participated in and continues to participate in a number of national and international programs and initiatives, from agreements to implementation. One of the most important implications of the Paris Agreement is countries’ understanding that nationally determined contributions are required to meet long-term climate change commitments.

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In 2017, Nigeria ratified its NDCs and further established her role model for the rest of Africa in 2021 by submitting an ambitious updated NDCs. With the updated version, Nigeria’s economy-wide mitigation targets have been raised to 47 percent and unconditional emissions reductions of 20 percent by 2030, respectively, with the amended version. Apart from that, Nigeria has demonstrated a strong willingness to link NDCs with green recovery. According to our analysis, Nigeria has been attempting since 2015 to integrate several climate change policy measures that were included in earlier policy papers and strategic plans with new ones produced and implemented by the present administration [President Muhammadu Buhari’s Government].

Exhibit 1: Mitigation Projects by Sector between 2015 and 2021[in percentage]

Source: Nationally Determined Contributions Registry, 2021; Infoprations Analysis, 2022

A critical analysis of the Nationally Determined Contributions Registry by our analyst indicates that 695 projects have been created by the government. These projects cut across agriculture, energy, industry, oil and gas, and transport. According to our analyst, these sectors have over the years been identified as the most vulnerable to climate change effects. Analysis further reveals that 5 of the 695 projects are adaptation-focused, signifying the government’s readiness and interest in ensuring an enabling resilient environment for people and businesses. Six hundred and ninety of the projects are mitigation-oriented projects.

In terms of implementation, the energy and agriculture sectors received a significant number of projects between 2015 and 2021. A total of 537 and 58 projects were developed for energy and agriculture, respectively. With 28 and 19 projects, oil and gas and industry closely followed. Analysis also reveals that the transport sector had 3 projects. Analysis of the projects based on ongoing and planned types shows that 29 projects have been penciled down for the energy sector, while 20 projects are being worked on as at the time of the analysis. The oil and gas sector has a project as an ongoing one.

Exhibit 2: Status of the Projects across Sectors [in percentage]

Source: Nationally Determined Contributions Registry, 2021; Infoprations Analysis, 2022

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